Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[snowmackem]

Places like my village, consett, stanley should se plenty of snow if it comes off

Hi Tynevalleysnow. Do you think you could put your location in your avatar please, it makes it much more relevant when we know where you are,

Cheers,

Karl

[Snowmaggedon]

I reckon we may get just as much as the West by the end of the weekend if the North Sea also decides to join the party once again

[Summer Sun]

what uppers are we going to be in any idea

Looking like -8

[Boro Snow]

Looking like -8

excellent thanks

[tynevalleysnow]

Hi Tynevalleysnow. Do you think you could put your location in your avatar please, it makes it much more relevant when we know where you are,

Cheers,

Karl

Put it on now

[Boro Snow]

posted on the model discussion by GP

I think we need to start to plan contingencies for a potentially sustained and very severe spell of wintry weather, of which Friday could just be the start.

NWP is presenting a number of potential snow events next week, which could well provide substantive accumulations.

The longwave trough migrating eastwards off the eastern coast of North America is consistently being modelled by ensemble means as cutting through a developing mid Atlantic ridge mid to late next week. That provides an eddy in the flow which is likely to enhance the easterly flow off an already frigid land mass to our east and north-east.

Thereafter, the ridge could retrogress towards the NE Atlantic and Greenland bring in another surge of Arctic air from the NE. That would give us a sustained period (with snowcover for much of the UK) of below normal temperatures.

I've grabbed the 06z GEFS at day 13 which depicts the synoptic pattern with a trough firmly ensconsed over Europe and high pressure to the north.

[Snowmaggedon]

posted on the model discussion by GP

I think we need to start to plan contingencies for a potentially sustained and very severe spell of wintry weather, of which Friday could just be the start.

NWP is presenting a number of potential snow events next week, which could well provide substantive accumulations.

The longwave trough migrating eastwards off the eastern coast of North America is consistently being modelled by ensemble means as cutting through a developing mid Atlantic ridge mid to late next week. That provides an eddy in the flow which is likely to enhance the easterly flow off an already frigid land mass to our east and north-east.

Thereafter, the ridge could retrogress towards the NE Atlantic and Greenland bring in another surge of Arctic air from the NE. That would give us a sustained period (with snowcover for much of the UK) of below normal temperatures.

I've grabbed the 06z GEFS at day 13 which depicts the synoptic pattern with a trough firmly ensconsed over Europe and high pressure to the north.

Starting to get very excited now plus the met office 6-15 day forecast suggests the north and east of the uk will bear the brunt of the cold

[snowmackem]

@Tynevalleysnow

Edited January 16, 2013 by snowmackem

[Summer Sun]

We've avoided an Ice day here today currently 0.4c with the dew point at -3.3°C

[Coast]

[tynevalleysnow]

Still on for ice day today. Temperature hit -1.7 at 2 butback down to -2.1 now.

Pic is from the fells near home looking towards hexham half an hour ago.

[Isolated Frost]

Heavy/moderate snow on Friday evening, lighter than those in the NW/W Midlands, however, we should hold onto the snow throughout Friday night and into Saturday, leaving accumulations of 5-10cm likely throughout the region, 10-20cm on hills.

Afterwards, undercuts and reloads appear to be the order of the day- as the continental cold defeats the atlantic mild... at least for the east.

[tynevalleysnow]

The mets orange warning comes to within 30 miles or so as the crow flies from us. A small shift ne and we will be in for some serious fun friday/Saturday.

[Snowstorm1]

Heavy/moderate snow on Friday evening, lighter than those in the NW/W Midlands, however, we should hold onto the snow throughout Friday night and into Saturday, leaving accumulations of 5-10cm likely throughout the region, 10-20cm on hills.

Afterwards, undercuts and reloads appear to be the order of the day- as the continental cold defeats the atlantic mild... at least for the east.

Finally i should be in a good position in the region to get some snow down!

[Alex95]

The 6z moves things west again so we miss the front, but we would still get a few inches from the North Sea.

[Isolated Frost]

GFS is not too nice. Shifts a bit further W wards from yesterdays 12z.

UKMO is a stunner though.

Yesterdays 12z for 0000 Friday at top, todays 12z for 0000 Friday at bottom-

Atlantic pattern further east (more chance of frontal activity), continental cold pulse further west (more chance of convection)... the uppers are lower, and so is the mean pressure

Uppers and pressure similar at 1200 Friday- flow slightly more SSE-NNW instead of SE-NW (another positive)

Oh, and Saturday and Sunday = monster convection from an unstable E/SE flow in the North Sea... yum yum

[Boro Snow]

some ppn coming into the far north of our region on the radar, some people might get an unexpected surprise

[Isolated Frost]

STUNNING ukmo

[snowmaddave]

What's the chances that chart verifying frost?

[tynevalleysnow]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/heavy_snow_warning Its brought the higher risk into western durham and northumberland. Another 20 miles or so and it will cover us•

[Isolated Frost]

http://www.metoffice...vy_snow_warning Its brought the higher risk into western durham and northumberland. Another 20 miles or so and it will cover us•

Bear in mind that is for Friday alone. Saturday looks even snowier here. You, at 900ft in Whittonstall (thanks for the location btw) are in prime position to benefit over the weekend- on top of the snow cover you currently have (thanks again for the pics).

Dave, same chance as GFS, GEM and ECM. The pattern looks set in place, but it has plenty of adaptations. We'll have to wait until after Friday to gauge the prospects afterwards.

UKMO has snow in the NE on Friday, heavy snow shrs on Saturday, cold again on Sunday with some snow before a very snowy Monday and Tuesday. An encouraging run.

[tynevalleysnow]

Could beat dec 2010 snow totals if it comes off. Only 2 foot 4 inches to go^

[NickR]

All in all how do u think wr will fare in snow terms compared to the west IF? Will we get any blizzard like conditions?

[Summer Sun]

All in all how do u think wr will fare in snow terms compared to the west IF? Will we get any blizzard like conditions?

I would expect high level areas to get Blizzards for sure

[tynevalleysnow]

If fridays ppn is half as potent as last summers rain from the atlantic we better get the huskys ready