Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[BoroBoy05]

People already coming into my shop buying lots of stuff worrying about not being able to get out tomorrow, idiots.... Ah well, more sales for me.

[Isolated Frost]

I just have a feeling we're destined to be in the sweet spot, IF... about 100 miles N of the point where convection is on the sleet/rain side. Think positive!

With charts like UKMO, do you think this could be at 2010 levels of snowdepth?

UKMO convection from 48-144 is incredible, if it went out to 168 we'd be in real Nov 2010 territory, and if the block holds to the NW, and doesn't sink (a la ECM), we will get one hell of a run, and potentially, very slack NE winds with PV to the east/scandi, and a blocking high in the GIN corridor/Iceland... this spell could be really special if all the pieces come together.

[NickR]

Yes that's for today and Friday, can anyone really predict what's going to happening after that with any confidence?

Yesterday the forecast was for the NE to get heavy snow, within 24hrs that's gone.

It seems the best thing to do at present is look out the window.

Yes, but look at the reasons why: the front won't reach us. It's not like everything has changed utterly. We simply have one of the two options firming up.. If the front doesn't reach us, than we get earlier and better convection.

[Hagler]

All I'm saying is things seem very volatile and are changing within a very short period of time.

So trying to say what's going to happen next week surely has to be a low confidence prediction?

Edited January 17, 2013 by Hagler

[Summer Sun]

Yes, but look at the reasons why: the front won't reach us. It's not like everything has changed utterly. We simply have one of the two options firming up.. If the front doesn't reach us, than we get earlier and better convection.

Either way its a win win situation for the NE basically we will get snow during the weekend whether that be from tomorrows band or from the east

Edited January 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[NickR]

Exactly, Gavin.

[Hagler]

Exactly, Gavin.

All I said was it looked cold and dry for the next two days and forecasting snow ahead of that surely has to be tricky considering how quick things have been changing!

You seem to go straight on the defensive if someone says something that isn't to your liking!

[snowmaddave]

Morning guys, blimey its cold out there this morning, just been reading the next few weeks outlook on the met office site, its looking pretty good i have to say, i know things can change but enjoy it while its here.

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Jan 2013 to Thursday 14 Feb 2013:

Colder than average conditions are favoured across many parts of the UK, especially in the north and east. Whilst there is no strong signal for rainfall patterns through this period, drier than average conditions are more likely in the north, whereas the south may have near or even slightly above average rainfall. The frequency of snow events through this period may be more than experienced so far this winter.

[Summer Sun]

This was the beebs take on things just before 7am this morning for Saturday

15:00 tomorrow looks like the band of snow will fizzle out before it reaches the cumbria area

[Summer Sun]

Cold weather alert extended now to 08:00 on Monday

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Thursday and 0800 on Monday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Remaining very cold with icy conditions across all but the far southwest of England throughout the period. Temperatures will be close to average across Cornwall and west Devon for much of the period. A band of snow is expected to move across the whole country on Friday, bringing widespread snow accumulations and leaving icy conditions to all areas excluding western Cornwall. Further snow showers are expected on Saturday away from the southwest, particularly along east coast areas, retaining the risk of ice. Lighter snow showers on Sunday midlands northwards. Strong winds at times across the country will make it feel bitterly cold.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[paul tall]

Has anybody had any snow overnight?

I've just cleaned my car of 0.5cm of what looked like snow. And it seems to have been cloudy most of the night.

[snowmaddave]

None here Paul, just really icey, cars crunching on the ice as they drive past, nice platform for when the fresh snow arrives though

[Summer Sun]

Sun is now breaking through here

Temperature is now -2.5°C - Can't see us getting an Ice day today the way the temperature is rising at the moment

Had nothing here Paul but its certainly been a cloudy night it was frost free here this morning despite the subzero temperatures

Edited January 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[paul tall]

Must have been freezing fog deposits!

[joggs]

Conflicting forecastp betweem the mo n beeb, very poor from the beeb.

[tynevalleysnow]

-5.2 after a -8.6 night.

Might I sugest that if next weeks charts come off it could be worse than 2010 as we are in midwinter and not late autumn now.

[paul tall]

-5.2 after a -8.6 night.

Might I sugest that if next weeks charts come off it could be worse than 2010 as we are in midwinter and not late autumn now.

The 2010 snow was the last week of November and right through December. If anything I'd say December is the optimum time for snow, especially if we're talking about keeping lying snow.

Edited January 17, 2013 by paul tall

[paul tall]

Sun is now breaking through here

Temperature is now -2.5°C - Can't see us getting an Ice day today the way the temperature is rising at the moment

It's -3.7 here, yesterday at the same time it was below -5 yet the temperature peaked at 0.2, so I'd agree with you that an ice day looks unlikely - that said, no two days are ever the same.

[P-M]

The 2010 snow was the last week of November and right through December. If anything I'd say December is the optimum time for snow, especially if we're talking about keeping lying snow.

I don't remember it being right through December imby mind.... 9 days of heavy snow then I can't remember what happened after that. I only class 2010 as a November to beginning of December event but could be wrong.....

[NickR]

All I said was it looked cold and dry for the next two days and forecasting snow ahead of that surely has to be tricky considering how quick things have been changing!

You seem to go straight on the defensive if someone says something that isn't to your liking!

Sorry you took it like that. I don't think my post was on the defensive at all. I was only making a point about the synoptics.

[Hagler]

The BBC forecast on their website goes for a largely dry, cold and windy weekend so god only knows what's going to happen as a lot of people on here are saying there's going to be heavy snow.

[NL]

Has anybody had any snow overnight?

I've just cleaned my car of 0.5cm of what looked like snow. And it seems to have been cloudy most of the night.

Looks like we might have had a very small graupel 'shower' last night as my 'natural' iced over pond in my back garden has a new sparse covering. Anyway got down to -6ºC here on the coast and is currently -4.5ºC. Showers out in the North sea are slowly making inroads towards coastal areas and possibly clipping later this afternoon, if anyone catches one they could deposit a few cm as they are very slow moving.

[tynevalleysnow]

The bbc forecast at 745 didn't go past 10am tomorrow but on the local at 8 it had snow for newcastle and durham for friday and saturday in the 3 box graphics

[Airedalejoe]

-5.2 after a -8.6 night.

Might I sugest that if next weeks charts come off it could be worse than 2010 as we are in midwinter and not late autumn now.

-5.2C after a low of -7.9C. Ice day yesterday and I would be amazed if today got above zero.

If charts come off in my opinion we would at least equal 2010, fingers crossed!

[Airedalejoe]

For those worrying about snow, keep checking the radar! All we need is a little shift in direction and there's plenty of snow just offshore at the moment!

I keep saying it but the North sea will continue to surprise.