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Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

well i am visiting my mam in darlington and just had a walk around the south park and i can confirm it is snowing albeit very very lightly im not sure its even snow but precipitation of some variety is falling from the sky, The park is lovely btw i hope you guys are going to get out and enjoy this cold and not just pour over the computer looking for the breakdown.

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tynevalleysnow Contributor

tynevalleysnow

Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
Posted

3rd ice day in a row here I'd say as its still only -2.6. Heard radio forecast say heavy snow showers tomorrow morning then moderate snow and blizzards tomorrow night and into saturday. Mets warning doesn't reflect this but that trough on fax and then the front from west would definatly provide that. Also looking like lots of snow potential for early next week.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Did you get your ice day then?

Currently -0.9º here, which is the highest all day.

Yes first Ice day of 2013 once the cloud rolled in it was going to be difficult to get positive figures

High of -0.4c

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NL Aficionado

NL

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
Posted (edited)

No ice day here on the coast as temps climb above freezing to the dizzy heights of 0.8ºC.!

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358467200

Snow as early as 3am with heavy snow between 3pm to 6pm. Obviously times may differ but looking extremely wintry. Having a Christmas lunch on Saturday at my brothers house, he missed Christmas this year as he was working in Africa so it'll feel very festive..w00t.gifdrinks.gif.

Oh and its my birthday on Saturday so double celebrations..!!

Edited by NL
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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

...I'd rather have realistic hopes and not be disappointed.. so you're not hopeful of much? Or are you looking further ahead for better convection?

Just basing it on the GFS charts, then I really am not sure, I mean what we don't want is for the frontal cloud to ruin the convective potential but I guess its a case of wait and see.

The 00Z UKMO charts look much better for convective potential despite what what Louise Lear has said.

I think basically, I've not got a clue because the forecast is changing all the time!

...I'd rather have realistic hopes and not be disappointed.. so you're not hopeful of much? Or are you looking further ahead for better convection?

Just basing it on the GFS charts, then I really am not sure, I mean what we don't want is for the frontal cloud to ruin the convective potential but I guess its a case of wait and see.

The 00Z UKMO charts look much better for convective potential despite what what Louise Lear has said.

I think basically, I've not got a clue because the forecast is changing all the time!

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Airedalejoe Enthusiast

Airedalejoe

Posted
  • Location: Chester-le-street,Co.Durham
  • Location: Chester-le-street,Co.Durham
Posted

No ice day here on the coast as temps climb above freezing to the dizzy heights of 0.8ºC.!

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358467200

Snow as early as 3am with heavy snow between 3pm to 6pm. Obviously times may differ but looking extremely wintry. Having a Christmas lunch on Saturday at my brothers house, he missed Christmas this year as he was working in Africa so it'll feel very festive..w00t.gifdrinks.gif

A high of -1.2C here, love it, now lets have the snow!

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

well i am visiting my mam in darlington and just had a walk around the south park and i can confirm it is snowing albeit very very lightly im not sure its even snow but precipitation of some variety is falling from the sky, The park is lovely btw i hope you guys are going to get out and enjoy this cold and not just pour over the computer looking for the breakdown.

Yes there was certainly something falling dandruff.?

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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted (edited)

-0.2C here but it's still rising slowly. A few snow grains falling from the cloud which is looking quite thick now.

I have noticed the GFS becoming very keen to bring in heavy snow from the east tomorrow afternoon to flirt with the North Sea coast, so this is something to watch!

Edited by Alza
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Looking good so far guys

UKMO at t72 is looking good for further snow

UW72-21.GIF?17-16

UW72-7.GIF?17-16

Amazingly GFS is almost identical

gfs-0-72.png?12

Some agreement for once

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NickR Community Regular

NickR

Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
Posted

A ppn clump seems to just be growing from nothing about 100-150 miles south of here... very strange!

Looking good so far guys

UKMO at t72 is looking good for further snow

UW72-21.GIF?17-16

UW72-7.GIF?17-16

Amazingly GFS is almost identical

gfs-0-72.png?12

Some agreement for once

UKMO is better - GFS has a less strong flow and we soon lose the flow and it's only E Scotland that gets the convection.

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lizmartin1981 Rookie

lizmartin1981

Posted
  • Location: Jarrow, South Tyneside
  • Weather Preferences: It's all about the white stuff!
  • Location: Jarrow, South Tyneside
Posted

I thought we would stay below 0 today, still certainly feels it even though its just above now!

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NickR Community Regular

NickR

Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
Posted

Question: GFS brings the low further N and E.. will this not bring in less cold air and make the Sat/Sun/Mon showers more marginal?

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Looking good so far

UW96-21.GIF?17-17

Really? Heavy rain and sleet from that in the NE. Mostly rain below 150m or by the coast. The low pressure is a touch too far north- uppers would be sub -5c.

The developments in northern latitudes look v promising on the UKMO though- and the extending of the azores high... top notch to come?

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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted

I always look for sub 528 DAM air as well as -5 or below 850 hPa temperatures whilst looking for snow. The 528 DAM line retreats as early as Sunday on the latest GFS - would this not bring with it the risk of sleet and rain rather than snow? The surface temperatures and 850s etc still look low.

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NickR Community Regular

NickR

Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
Posted

Really? Heavy rain and sleet from that in the NE. Mostly rain below 150m or by the coast. The low pressure is a touch too far north- uppers would be sub -5c.

The developments in northern latitudes look v promising on the UKMO though- and the extending of the azores high... top notch to come?

So UKMO = snow

GFS 12z = sleet/rain

??

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I always look for sub 528 DAM air as well as -5 or below 850 hPa temperatures whilst looking for snow. The 528 DAM line retreats as early as Sunday on the latest GFS - would this not bring with it the risk of sleet and rain rather than snow? The surface temperatures and 850s etc still look low.

Take no notice of the GFS past +48- another run where it has underdone the retrogression and messed up the atlantic.

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Looking good so far

UW96-21.GIF?17-17

Getting a bit marginal on that chart though gav we could do with everything being further south

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NL Aficionado

NL

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
Posted

Certainly does Liz, temperature here at the coast is 1.2ºC now but adding the wind chill it feels -4.5ºC and dew points at -3.5ºC with no obvious snow/ice melt. Going to be a fascinating weekend starting as early as tomorrow.

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