Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[Dom W]

Starting to see some light snow here in Peterlee

[Isolated Frost]

I won't say the ECM is a "warm up" just less cold, what might help to balance the margins is that the flow will be continental so will attract lower dewpoints, the bad news is that the lower winds will be coming in from the North Sea.

Maybe people were too quick to dismiss the GFS?

None of the models at 120-144 look anything like the awful GFS. It will be hugely wrong.

It's about which one of the EC, UKMO and GEM output is right. I'm hoping GEM, or UKMO. ECM not that great- but hopefully some cold dp's will keep it wintry on Monday and Tuesday- and the Scandi vortex/weak jet scenario preserves and strengthens the blocking heights.

[Alex95]

The ECM is no worse than the 00z.

[tynevalleysnow]

Nice one mooney

[Alex95]

Good Look North forecast - light flurries all night leaving a dusting, then heavier snow tomorrow giving 2-5cm in the North East and 10cm on hills, then further snow showers on Saturday and Sunday.

[doggy123]

Anyone else just see that look north forecast by the big lad mooney, snow showers all day tomorrow and Saturday drifting in strong winds! He even mentioned knee deep drifts saying the north east of the region will be hardest hit. Also showed light snow throughout tonight giving a dusting!

[Boro Snow]

im surprised after that forecast we dont have an amber warning for tommorrow

[Cloud 10]

Posted in the model thread a few minutes ago...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21066768

[Darandio]

im surprised after that forecast we dont have an amber warning for tommorrow

Only a matter of time surely?

It just all seems very chaotic at the moment, not so long ago it was only showing a warning for snow tomorrow, then a warning for ice on Sat/Sun. This has now changed to snow warnings.

I also wasn't expecting to see the sky so white tonight either.

[gazzac69]

still snowing lightly here, but it is definetly intensifying slightly compared to approx. 1 hour ago(don't need the lamppost to see it now), not expected but will take it, never seen Rooneys BBC local forecast tonight, but by what i,ve read on here sounds a hell of a lot betta then last night! bring it on

Edited January 17, 2013 by gazzac69

[NickR]

Anyone else just see that look north forecast by the big lad mooney, snow showers all day tomorrow and Saturday drifting in strong winds! He even mentioned knee deep drifts saying the north east of the region will be hardest hit. Also showed light snow throughout tonight giving a dusting!

Is it available on a link?

[Geordiesnow]

still snowing lightly here, but it is definetly intensifying slightly compared to approx. 1 hour ago(don't need the lamppost to see it now), not expected but will take it, never seen Rooneys BBC local forecast tonight, but by what i,ve read on here sounds a hell of a lot betta then last night! bring it on

Rooney's forecast! :lol: Its Paul Mooney, but yeah, that rain/sleet forecast seems history now thankfully, I'm still not too convinced by Sunday, its a little way out still I suppose, it will all depends what flow we get, a slightly shift in the isobars could change how much milder upper air comes into play because looking at the UKMO 72 hour forecast, it looks dry and cloudy too me yet the ECM 72 hours could result more in the way of wintry showers.

Then again, never takes the graphics too literally, I mean, the BBC/UKMO never forecast this band of mostly light snow to develop, its one of those where it will probably fizzle out when the main front will make its presence known but like in the midlands, if you are under a moderate burst, it could last a while whilst 5 miles down the road could still just have light snow.

[NickR]

Frustrating we're missing out on those HUGE showers in the N Sea... HOWEVER, they give an indication of what to expect over the coming days.

[Alex95]

still snowing lightly here, but it is definetly intensifying slightly compared to approx. 1 hour ago(don't need the lamppost to see it now), not expected but will take it, never seen Rooneys BBC local forecast tonight, but by what i,ve read on here sounds a hell of a lot betta then last night! bring it on

Omg is Rooney doing weather forecasts?

The band is still expanding northwards so I expect it to get a bit heavier in a couple of hours. It is trying to leave a sugar dusting where the snow was cleared the other day, but it is so dry it keeps getting blown away!

[doggy123]

Is it available on a link?

not sure where you would be able to get it maybe the bbc website

[Geordiesnow]

Frustrating we're missing out on those HUGE showers in the N Sea... HOWEVER, they give an indication of what to expect over the coming days.

Could that not be a trough in relation what the fax charts are showing? They look a little bit more organised than just coastal showers. in all fairness.

[Snowstorm1]

just light snow here but not laying as its that light

[NickR]

Could that not be a trough in relation what the fax charts are showing? They look a little bit more organised than just coastal showers. in all fairness.

Good point.

They still look tasty, though!

Edited January 17, 2013 by NickR

[Snowstorm1]

Good point.

They still look tasty, though!

is it forecast to come onshore?

[NickR]

Here it is:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760853.stm

[NickR]

is it forecast to come onshore?

No.

[Summer Sun]

Paul Mooney is going for 2 to 5cm of snow tomorrow at low levels maybe 10cm on high ground, heaviest of the snow in the NE tomorrow afternoon into the evening but snow showers from early morning for most of us

Further snow through Saturday and Sunday things don't look like warming up any until well into next week at the earliest

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760853.stm

Have a feeling to 2 to 5cm for low levels is rather conservative wouldn't be surprised to see double to the 5cm around widely

Edited January 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[NickR]

Paul Mooney is going for 2 to 5cm of snow tomorrow at low levels maybe 10cm on high ground, heaviest of the snow in the NE tomorrow afternoon into the evening but snow showers from early morning for most of us

Further snow through Saturday and Sunday things don't look like warming up any until well into next week at the earliest

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760853.stm

Have a feeling to 2 to 5cm for low levels is rather conservative wouldn't be surprised to see double to the 5cm around widely

I agree. And you've got to add to that everything from Friday evening on, which he wasn't including. Could be widespread 10cms or more IMO overall.

[gazzac69]

Omg is Rooney doing weather forecasts?

The band is still expanding northwards so I expect it to get a bit heavier in a couple of hours. It is trying to leave a sugar dusting where the snow was cleared the other day, but it is so dry it keeps getting blown away!

Oops Sorry Mr.Mooney if your reading I,m getting on a bit now, made me laugh when I read some of the replies though my apoligies, Edited January 17, 2013 by gazzac69

[doggy123]

Best forecast of the winter that one lol