Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[peterf]

nobody has a real clue regards events.it will do whatever it does,sit back watch the radar and enjoy.

[Alex95]

Light snow here and heavier stuff brewing. Is this out starter before the main and pudding

Then the barf on Sunday when it all turns to slush and muck

Hopefully I'm just kidding.

[Continental Climate]

You are correct, this is a late christmas present.

Loads better than my pair of socks and brut deodorant set

[Snowstorm1]

Loads better than my pair of socks and brut deodorant set

Wouldnt go that far mate I can smell your snow from here

[seabreeze86]

A few flakes blowing around at the minute just hope the band continues to expand could give a surprise covering

[baskcm]

Loads better than my pair of socks and brut deodorant set

nothing wrong with brut

[Isolated Frost]

ECM colder than the UKMO, which is colder than the GEM, which is colder than the GFS for Sunday. And even the GFS doesn't go above -5c.

I'm not scared about thicknesses, they stay below 1290dm on Sunday.

I am scared about Monday- but that's a long time away.

EC slightly milder than GFS on Monday. GEM coldest.

[Alex95]

ECM colder than the UKMO, which is colder than the GEM, which is colder than the GFS for Sunday. And even the GFS doesn't go above -5c.

I'm not scared about thicknesses, they stay below 1290dm on Sunday.

I am scared about Monday- but that's a long time away.

EC slightly milder than GFS on Monday. GEM coldest.

I'm talking about 500-1000hPa thickness, its important for it to be less than 528 DAM, isn't it?

[Continental Climate]

ECM colder than the UKMO, which is colder than the GEM, which is colder than the GFS for Sunday. And even the GFS doesn't go above -5c.

I'm not scared about thicknesses, they stay below 1290dm on Sunday.

I am scared about Monday- but that's a long time away.

EC slightly milder than GFS on Monday. GEM coldest.

Things becoming slightly milder on these 12zs lets hope its a trend that dosent continue it would be a shame if the melt started on monday when we thought we were going to get to at least wednesday with no melt, anyway long way to go yet!!

[Isolated Frost]

Monday and Tuesday look very rainy/sleety on the ECM.

[Continental Climate]

Monday and Tuesday look very rainy/sleety on the ECM.

Yeah im not liking this run at all a considerable warm up starting monday if the models are correct, lets hope they arent, 144 should be ok though

[NickR]

ECM colder than the UKMO, which is colder than the GEM, which is colder than the GFS for Sunday. And even the GFS doesn't go above -5c.

I'm not scared about thicknesses, they stay below 1290dm on Sunday.

I am scared about Monday- but that's a long time away.

EC slightly milder than GFS on Monday. GEM coldest.

Would it be possible for ECM to be right until Sunday then GEM to take over?

[Isolated Frost]

Plenty of marginality, both ways. A southward adjustment would be snow-fest. A northward adjustment would be rain, rain, rain.

[NickR]

Plenty of marginality, both ways. A southward adjustment would be snow-fest. A northward adjustment would be rain, rain, rain.

Don't these lows tend to end up further south?

[NickR]

From moomin75 on TWO when I said I don't like the look of Mon/Tues on ECM - poss rain/sleet:

But I re-iterate what I said earlier and something I learned a few years back.....The uppers are not as important once we have a cold pool at the surface. It's the dewpoints that will distinguish more between sleet and snow less than the uppers, which are still sub-zero in any case!

Might be some freezing rain where DPs get above zero as it hits frozen surfaces.

[snowmackem]

Don't these lows tend to end up further south?

Normally Nick, but rules are there to be broken lol.

Seriously, my own view is that it will drop away and not be a problem, a wild snowy weekend for all, continuing into next week.

[Continental Climate]

can anyone give me an update on that band of snow will it rain radar not working for me, probably crashed by all you lot, lol

[Snowstorm1]

can anyone give me an update on that band of snow will it rain radar not working for me, probably crashed by all you lot, lol

Its just few flakes of snow in the air no big deal

[Isolated Frost]

If Monday and Tuesday deliver snow (with -5c/-6c uppers mind), then we have a very fun few days to come afterwards.

[teesard blizzard]

Snowing at the moment in teesside, very light. Looking good for fri and sat. Just might be hit and miss depending where u are and how much we get. But we should all see a fair amount over the NE.

[Boro Snow]

temp has gone above freezing for the first time today currently 0.3c

[Snowstorm1]

1.1c here but dew point well sub zero

[tynevalleysnow]

Latest bbc forecast had us mostly missing the boat tomorrow and didn't even offer a forecast for saturday.

[Alex95]

0.0C here with light snow, readily settling on frozen surfaces. Hopefully the ice will be less slippy tomorrow if there's a dusting of snow on top of it.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Alza

[Geordiesnow]

I won't say the ECM is a "warm up" just less cold, what might help to balance the margins is that the flow will be continental so will attract lower dewpoints, the bad news is that the lower winds will be coming in from the North Sea.

Maybe people were too quick to dismiss the GFS?