Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[Isolated Frost]

UKMO-GEM-ECM. That's it really, the GFS is awful at some of this now- and even the GEM is battling it imo- latest verification stats show they are close.

A mash-up of the above 3 will do until the GFS realises the atlantic jet isn't going to tint up the GIN corridor and top energy over the blocking heights.

-4c here btw.

[Alex95]

The biggest plus from tonight is that all the main models seem to be shoeing an easterly on Saturday now.

I think I'm done for tonight, pretty much all good news really, nothing to worry about for a change!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Alza

[Freezing-Point]

I would prefer to see the ECM set-up for next Tues/Wed

[Freezing-Point]

Last nights low of -6c here could be beaten as its now -3.6c. The chances of getting blizzard conditions in the next week are very real, but we could do with tapping into some colder air.

[Isolated Frost]

UKMO at 120

GEM

EC

Retrogressive motion pulls a blocking high to the NE of Iceland- an extensive ridge from the s-tropical high, jet cut off- low pressure to the W/SW of the UK with cold east/south-east winds pulled in

GFS for the same time?

Messed up. Jet too progressive, flat s-tropical high, retrogressive thought about but retracted and the end result is W/SW'lies

No support and a completely illogical solution- you can see what it does

The changes start at 48/72 with the atlantic low- it's an overprogressive/op GFS trait- and will follow the main 3 v soon- the easterly on Sunday will not be as good as the GFS proggs, but the frontal activity should be better on Friday, and prolonged cold is more likely after Monday..

Watch the GFS slowly follow the other two.. tonight the best output is

1. ECMWF/GEM

2. UKMO

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-

-

-

-

4. GFS

The UKMO is like the less severe, more cautious EC/GEM option, and is the one I would err too, so check the FAXes, and UKMO's especially when you wake up, as well as the EC and GEM suite- don't take notice of the GFS at all until it decides to pick its toys from the pram

BBC forecast also goes against the GFS as close as Friday / Saturday - it's awful atm

[snow_mad_09]

Not wanting too much snow on Friday/Sat as I don't want the Newcastle game postponed.

-3c here at the moment.

[Geordiesnow]

Not sure if I like the latest BBC weather forecast tbh, if the front is struggling to reach our region then I rather have the convective showers, I don't see Saturday being marginal but Sunday does look more marginal as the cold uppers start to get diluted somewhat.

ECM does look like on the eye its further East so I would imagine the front will be further East, personally its more and more likely the front will affect more southern and western areas but hopefully that means we get the undercut slightly quicker so we get the convective weather quicker.

[Isolated Frost]

-5.4c here!

[NL]

Quite pleased to see that the fronts from the west are now being pushed further back, never been a fan of frontal events because often they end up turning to sleet/rain spoiling newly settled snow at low levels. Cant see sleet or rain at the coast with 850's at -7 to -8 in January either..!! Wouldn't look further than 72hrs at present but what I would say is that the wintry weather has just started and be prepared for serious cold and very snowy conditions.

[snowmaddave]

Loving the last paragraph their NL, guess your very confident in this cold hanging around, really hope your right

[Thundery wintry showers]

Quite pleased to see that the fronts from the west are now being pushed further back, never been a fan of frontal events because often they end up turning to sleet/rain spoiling newly settled snow at low levels. Cant see sleet or rain at the coast with 850's at -7 to -8 in January either..!! Wouldn't look further than 72hrs at present but what I would say is that the wintry weather has just started and be prepared for serious cold and very snowy conditions.

Indeed- frontal events very rarely delivered much to Cleadon when I lived there because either the precipitation would fizzle as it got near the east coast, or the more marginal temperatures accompanied by onshore winds would result in a sleety mix. Even here at Sandhutton, which is much further inland, a combination of marginal temperatures and relatively light precipitation have resulted in only limited accumulations on the ground from recent frontal snowfalls, while snow showers seem to get across quite readily in those sunshine-and-snow-showers setups (though they've often lost a fair amount of intensity by the time they get here).

For areas near and to the west of the Pennines though the latest set of runs are downgrading snowfall prospects as they probably won't see many showers get across from the North Sea in an easterly. One point to note, though, is that the further south and west the frontal zones end up, the longer the cold spell is likely to last as it implies a stronger blocking high to the N and NE.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Dandy]

-5 at The Angel

[Dandy]

Freezing fog looks like snow is falling at home. See the models have moved a bit west this morning......we shall see.

[ballybabe21]

So am I correct now in saying that Friday will be very cold with no snow and I can enjoy it falling from the easterly on Saturday instead? Just checking as its all getting a bit confusing :-)

[BoroBoy05]

Not sure if my car is winding me up this morning but it peaked at -16C before settling down to -6C on the way down from Guisborough!

[NickR]

Anyone sum up the way the models are looking for the NE this morning?

[Hagler]

Anyone sum up the way the models are looking for the NE this morning?

Cold and dry!

[NickR]

FWIW my summary would be: lots of convection, especially the non-GFS model later on, but all of them give us heavy showers at the weekend.

Cold and dry!

For Friday, yes... but not after that, surely!

[Isolated Frost]

UKMO was an absolute stunner- even better than yesterdays 12z suite with convective easterly flows, favourable and aggressive retrogression, a dying atlantic that dislikes the GFS solution and then an attempt at the mid-atlantic ridge late on.

EC not as good as yesterdays- very cold, but uppers not as good as atlantic lows are further north between 96-144, plenty of rain and snow for us.. snow for Scotland, heavy rain for the south- a slight southerly adjustment and it would be even better than yesterdays.

Hell of a chart.

GEM output is marginal but incredible- so much snow from it.

Saturday looks very snowy from the SE here, as does Sunday... another marginal frontal incursion, with the wind here remaining easterly before heights move to the NW, and the PV sets up in Scandi... that could well be the NE reload we're waiting for.

[NickR]

UKMO was an absolute stunner- even better than yesterdays 12z suite with convective easterly flows, favourable and aggressive retrogression, a dying atlantic that dislikes the GFS solution and then an attempt at the mid-atlantic ridge late on.

EC not as good as yesterdays- very cold, but uppers not as good as atlantic lows are further north between 96-144, plenty of rain and snow for us.. snow for Scotland, heavy rain for the south- a slight southerly adjustment and it would be even better than yesterdays.

Hell of a chart.

GEM output is marginal but incredible- so much snow from it.

Saturday looks very snowy from the SE here, as does Sunday... another marginal frontal incursion, with the wind here remaining easterly before heights move to the NW, and the PV sets up in Scandi... that could well be the NE reload we're waiting for.

I just have a feeling we're destined to be in the sweet spot, IF... about 100 miles N of the point where convection is on the sleet/rain side. Think positive!

With charts like UKMO, do you think this could be at 2010 levels of snowdepth?

[Summer Sun]

The met office are forecasting snow here from late Friday right through to Monday now beebs forecast last night was showing snow right down the east on Saturday get the feeling lots of sporting events will be off this weekend.

Amazingly we avoided a hard frost overnight didn't even need de-ice on the car

[NickR]

-7.2°C at about 2am here... but fog/low cloud ruined the chances of a -10°C.

[Snowstorm1]

-6c here now

[Summer Sun]

-2.7°C with the dew point at -4.9°C

[Hagler]

FWIW my summary would be: lots of convection, especially the non-GFS model later on, but all of them give us heavy showers at the weekend.

For Friday, yes... but not after that, surely!

Yes that's for today and Friday, can anyone really predict what's going to happening after that with any confidence?

Yesterday the forecast was for the NE to get heavy snow, within 24hrs that's gone.

It seems the best thing to do at present is look out the window.