Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[Alex95]

I don't ask for much. Wherever it comes from I just want more snow than anywhere else in England. This is who we are; this is what we're good at; this is our recompense for the utterly awful summers! IMBY? You betcha!

In fairness, we have had decent summers since about 2007 if you like thunder, as I do!

[smogonthetyne]

So if you had to put money on it what would you say Friday has in store?

[Alex95]

So if you had to put money on it what would you say Friday has in store?

I'm going for dry and cold until the evening, when the front might arrive. If it doesn't then we should get heavy snow on Saturday and Sunday.

[smogonthetyne]

Cheers Alza,

Heavy snow for Sat and Sun would be convective N Sea showers?

[Alex95]

Cheers Alza,

Heavy snow for Sat and Sun would be convective N Sea showers?

Yes, if the front doesn't hit. If it does then we won't be getting much convection, hence the risk of it being weak and fragmented.

If I get 10cm of fresh snow by this time next week I'll be quite happy really, I enjoy the wonderful wintry scenes more than a paralysing blizzard, despite the latter being exciting it doesn't half spoil your plans!

Just seen the UKMO 12z - my favourite run so far with a much cleaner easterly flow on Saturday and early next week, with some frontal snow chances later on Sunday. I can't see how we wouldn't get a foot of snow if that we're to verify, its on par with Jan '10 or Nov&Dec '10. Also, this pattern with lows getting close to us but the flow staying cold & easterly certainly has the chance if throwing up a 1979 style blizzard to the NE. Its a loooong time since we saw one of those, well before I was born anyway. December 1981 probably, then 1979 itself had a few.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Alza

[smogonthetyne]

interesting, a bit all or nothing then. for large accumilations, nothing on Friday would be better. probably more touch and go the further south you are in our region

[Alex95]

interesting, a bit all or nothing then. for large accumilations, nothing on Friday would be better. probably more touch and go the further south you are in our region

Well that's just my opinion on things. If the front reaches us there's still the chance it would deliver significant snow, then we might still get some convective chances later. Its almost a win-win situation really, the main thing which could go wrong is if the front stalls just south/west of our region, leaving us cold and cloudy with a few flakes from the edge of the band.

[Summer Sun]

The met office website has now updated and it goes for the following

Friday - dry and cloudy with snow arriving around tea time

Saturday - snow all day

Sunday - sunshine and snow showers all day with the winds coming in from the east during daylight hours then shifting east-south-east later in the day

This is for Darlington but I expect its the same for most

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[gazzac69]

just seen 8.58pm bbc national weather forecast on sky and the graphics was for all snow down the eastern side of our area well into the north sea on saturday

which sort of discounts rooneys earlier local beeb forecast of rain and sleet for weekend

[Summer Sun]

just seen 8.58pm bbc national weather forecast on sky and the graphics was for all snow down the eastern side of our area well into the north sea on saturday

which sort of discounts rooneys earlier local beeb forecast of rain and sleet for weekend

Like I said before his data was probably "old" I would expect changes in this evenings forecast or at the latest in the morning with Lisa or who ever is on

We are fairly certain to see snow this weekend rather than sleet

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[teesard blizzard]

Front will struggle to reach us and if it does it will be weak n wont carry much. Higher ground will take all the sting out of it.

[Darandio]

Front will struggle to reach us and if it does it will be weak n wont carry much. Higher ground will take all the sting out of it.

Welcome! Cracking first post.

[tynevalleysnow]

And into next week we could see something special if the models are right

[Isolated Frost]

When there are westward corrections at +12, you know somethings up. The continental cold is smashing the atlantic, hammering it, obliterating it.

EDIT: Not that I'm saying the GFS is the correct solution- I'm expecting it to be slightly east compared to the point at +36 on the 18z. I expect that it will be a similar run before FI (+120).

Edited January 16, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[Summer Sun]

13:00 Friday the main band of snow is in the west and some showers are along the eastern side

Slowly moves east at t48

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Our turn Saturday?

[Alex95]

18z pushes things even further west as IF has already pointed out, and is keen to bring in convection by Friday evening. By the time te easterly gets going the showers will already be raging in the North Sea, so we should have heavy snow showers from start to finish. (Unlike normally when we have to wait for them to build on the easterly wind)

Perfect snow setup on Saturday if its heavy convection you're after, now modelled by GFS, ECM and UKMO. Game on!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Alza

[Isolated Frost]

18z pushes things even further west as IF has already pointed out, and is keen to bring in convection by Friday evening. By the time te easterly gets going the showers will already be raging in the North Sea, so we should have heavy snow showers from start to finish. (Unlike normally when we have to wait for them to build on the easterly wind)

Yep- heavy snow from the North Sea for the NE from Friday night for at least a day or two. Yum yum- different to the EC and UKMO output- which the westerners will hope to shift west. We win anyway, if it shifts west, longer easterly flow, less marginality and colder uppers, if it shifts east, frontal snow - and then more convection.

I love this place

[doggy123]

Hope it keeps shifting west roll on another easterly

[Isolated Frost]

Lol- snow for the east coast on Sunday, big snow as well.

[damianslaw]

Central and southern Cumbria in particular look like seeing the heaviest snow from the frontal feature, as the front hits the Pennines it will loose a fair bit of intensity, but still some moderate falls of snow are quite likely for NE parts of the region.

The front is projected to fizzle in situ during Saturday meaning a day of further light snowall in the NE whilst the west probably just sees very cloudy skies and possible fog over the lying snow.

[Isolated Frost]

GFS completely missing up the pattern at Northern Latitudes- not retrogressing.. the EC/UKMO solution should definitely be favoured and so the GFS past +72 shouldn't really be used that much- the way it's overpowering the atlantic storms is also ridiculous with the EC/GEM/UKMO against it-

take it as a westward shift- but only the 00s and 12s matter

[Alex95]

The GFS would bury NE England, pretty much like either the start / end of 2010, but I'm not keen on the evolution after the weekend. There has been a trend to bring in a thaw (maybe just temporarily) late next week, that needs to be monitored although its still FI at the minute.

[Isolated Frost]

Noted above alza- the GFS won't verify- it pushes the atlantic jet into the blocking high and the blocking high sinks back into the flow, allowing the s-tropical high to extend and be flat instead of ridging- the GFS will catch up in time-

regarding the situation before Sunday, any model could have this- maybe a halfway house?

[Alex95]

I've noticed the high ridging north a few times now, hence why I think we should keep an eye on it! The pattern would still hold tons of potential for a reload though as I doubt the Atlantic would properly win, it would just be held in the NW for a while instead of the SW, so we'd lose the cold for a while. That's not for a week or more anyway.