South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[Joneseye]

Don't forget the CANDLES, for when the powerlines come down.

*Please note guys n gals, I AM HAVING A JOKE WITH THIS PARTICULAR COMMENT, NO HARM MEANT*

Incidentally, I got the candles in, pints of milk, bread, hot choc and alcohol (never short on that) days ago.

how's yer temp getting on? I see thatcham weather is down to -1.3...

[jethro]

Thanks folks. It doesn't seem to be peetering out, just hoping it doesn't warm things up around here.

[Southern Storm]

really? We had about 10cm from that spell, I think Weymouth did miss out though!

You could be right but I had stayed up all night watching the snow and continued to hallucinate/see snow all day

Quit an experience lol

Noooooooooo that was when the whole country had snow........ Except us! Couldn't believe we missed out so badly

[karlos1983]

Looks like its hitting a brick wall to me and Beggining to shunt back west again, according to rain today ?

[dec10snow]

Evening guys! I don't have time to read through all 22 pages from today, so could someone give me a summary of what's happened today? As the met still have a yellow warning for my area, but have seem to have downgraded the forecast, predicting rain before the snow? And I've just read on the mod thread, that the GEM gives a very good run, -10 uppers even over the far west? Thanks

[A.J]

Incidentally, for any folk reading that as a ramp, Iceberg IMHO, is telling the tale how it is. That is not a ramp.

All subject to change of course, but please keep in touch with this regional's thoughts as we edge nearer towards Friday's event.

but this, on the other hand, is........................................

Snowmageddon is coming!!!!!!

and just in case you haven't got the hint...

The biggest ramp from the South West!

[gottolovethisweather]

Was wondering - if everyone gets a shed load of snow - would that become a factor in our (Cornish) prospects for any subsequent precip that falls? Ie cold snowfields and fronts from other directions colliding?

I believe it would assist your chances in the longer-term. Kind of what I was referring to, when people the other day were quick to dismiss the chances of lying snow out East. The more the UK gradually gets snowcovered, the lower the Temperatures will go, more especially by night. The air and ground Temperatures as a consequence become modified and as a result, the general model suites will fail to predict these differences in their forecasts. With that in mind, I would suggest all folk don't overanalyse Temperature predictions once snowcover starts to accumulate.

All the above is my understanding of such things, any other views on this are greatly appreciated.

[Polar Bear]

I can see that as well. Huge front heading over a massive chunk of the soutwest pretty fast on the radar... Its -0.4 here.

Anybody know what this could do?

Well the nw extra radar is showing it as snow as it moves over Wales.. How much, it's intensity and longevity I wouldn't know..

[gottolovethisweather]

I am expecting some short-term snowfall over parts of East Cornwall and certain parts of Devon in the coming hours.

The precipitation band is holding itself together so far and it will shortly be advancing into snow-producing Dewpoints, according to NW v6 radar.

[lfcdude]

Meto have me snow Friday Saturday.. Then Sunday from 3pm into the night hiyerr

[Polar Bear]

how's yer temp getting on? I see thatcham weather is down to -1.3...

Hi Jonesye hope you all set for Friday? ... Should be interesting. An debating popping to the lock stock and watching it descend over the kennet with a glass! Just hoping the models are still on top form tomorrow and not feeling downgraded...

[Erbyskerby]

I believe it would assist your chances in the longer-term. Kind of what I was referring to, when people the other day were quick to dismiss the chances of lying snow out East. The more the UK gradually gets snowcovered, the lower the Temperatures will go, more especially by night. The air and ground Temperatures as a consequence become modified and as a result, the general model suites will fail to predict these differences in their forecasts. With that in mind, I would suggest all folk don't overanalyse Temperature predictions once snowcover starts to accumulate.

All the above is my understanding of such things, any other views on this are greatly appreciated.

Hmmmm interesting post and I agree with your logic. Do the models not take into account surface temps influenced by snowcover then?

[gottolovethisweather]

how's yer temp getting on? I see thatcham weather is down to -1.3...

-1.5c as I type this, after a max of -0.4c

[chris55]

Just had a flick through the gfs 20 ens members for Friday evening and most actually stall the front much more over the sw, more akin to the gem.

Difficult call for the met office for us....do they go conservative and say 8 hrs of snow with 10-20cm on Friday or do they go realistic and go for 24 hrs of snow 30-40cm....

What a conundrum

This really could be special Iceberg, a truly rare event (at least in the last 20 years). This is a CLASSIC snow pattern for our region, and one not seen for as long as I can remember. A true sliding Atlantic attack that looks as though it could repeat as we head through the end of the weekend and into next week.

Obviously all caveats apply, but at things stand, for many of us it's pretty much as good as it gets. 194............7 anyone? lol.

[DavidLace]

Please snow can you dump loads and loads of snow in Plymouth. Thanks.

Edited January 16, 2013 by DavidLace

[PompeyFC]

think Friday I will get the early train up to Winchester where heavy snow is predicted for most of the day and cruise the pubs and enjoy the snow

[isleofwightsnowgal]

I'm still not convinced Fri will cm off for iow! Met o have us as heavy snow most of day n on most of the charts it's right over us then I see a met o chart that cuts off above us ugh?? Can someone plz re-assure me or depress me?! Thanks

[Wilxy]

think Friday I will get the early train up to Winchester where heavy snow is predicted for most of the day and cruise the pubs and enjoy the snow

Then get stranded there

[Beltanemaid]

Ok....... We're ready!

[Dampdorset82]

Here in Poole and Bournemouth looks like rain/sleet

[divadee]

Then get stranded there

I was just about to post the same lol.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hmmmm interesting post and I agree with your logic. Do the models not take into account surface temps influenced by snowcover then?

No they don't, as far as I am aware, as it is all in the future and everything is fluid in the atmosphere from run to run and from t+1 minute each and every time.

All model suites start with their readings at the t+0 timeframe and progress outwards from that point forward. So, the snowcover at say, t+39 hours right through to t+78 would have absolutely no effect on the model output as snow wasn't on the ground in the first place. The model analysis trend shown once snow is on the ground produces a different story altogether. Thinking about it, that is probably why the ensembles jump about all over the place when any nsowfall is impending over the British Isles.

As I say, if anybody else has some pointers on this topic, I would be most grateful.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

Ok....... We're ready!

Is that devons fleet on standby...

Edited January 16, 2013 by mullender83

[irish fiddler]

my hunch says this will be the biggest snow event for central southerners of this millenia! this is NOT to be taken lightly i encourage you to stock up on supplies (minimum of 2 months) expect rolling powercuts too

[dec10snow]

Evening guys! I don't have time to read through all 22 pages from today, so could someone give me a summary of what's happened today? As the met still have a yellow warning for my area, but have seem to have downgraded the forecast, predicting rain before the snow? And I've just read on the mod thread, that the GEM gives a very good run, -10 uppers even over the far west? Thanks

Anyone!?