South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[Coast]

South west enough for Devon and Cornwall broder????

Everyone gets to share the love!!!

[jessandjon]

Lest big snow was 1 day in 1985 or 1986 next day had all melted

[PompeyFC]

rain on all south and se coasts looking at the met office maps

I give up,I thought dew points and 850 temps were fine for snow on the coasts,obviously not then.

it will not be rain !

[Erbyskerby]

Liked that vid from the chief - nice to put a face to a name and I thought he explained it well.

Well the last sleet icon has gone from the bbc forecast I was looking at last night - rain for Friday for us in Cornwall - unless we get some interesting anomalies.

Not surprised - temps haven't gone below 6/7 degrees here for weeks!

[Sainsbo]

Almost fell off my chair when I came in to see that they still are forecasting snow. My location is close to the amber warning, and it looks that a lot of us will see some snow! Hopefully this won't change!

[kumquat]

Really hope Cornwall can get something out of this cold spell, although have to say - not looking a great chance for this weekend (as things stand). If I were down there I'd be getting my sledge out anyway and driving up to Bodmin.

[Wilxy]

Signal still going strong for decent snow event friday just hope we get some consistancy now

[snowmadchrisuk]

GFS 12z Stalls it over Somerset and Bristol all day , Pure Snow .... Lovely .....

[Ali1977]

Looking great for south/southwest, lots of snow showing on GFS

[Erbyskerby]

Really hope Cornwall can get something out of this cold spell, although have to say - not looking a great chance for this weekend (as things stand). If I were down there I'd be getting my sledge out anyway and driving up to Bodmin.

Yes, that's where I first look if there's nothing near me. Although once, I had to go to Truro to find the snow - opposite direction!

[Iceberg]

GFS takes a smaller band, quicker, but stalls it further west with a better angle, meaning less rain or sleet or more snow.

Very quickly going from the GFS I would say Devon is probably the boarder zone, high ground in devon snow, lower ground rain or sleet, for cornwall probably a bit of snow for maybe 1 hr and then rain, sorry...

Rest of the SW probably snow. Just one run through but thank goodness it didnt shift things further east...

[snowmadchrisuk]

Also a Snow signal still being shown for Wales and Somerset , Bristol, from tonight right up until the Friday event.

[Iceberg]

So a smaller 8 hrs of moderate snow and some Blizzards for the SW away from cornwall. However the faster speed allows more colder air and some precip to develop in a wrap around easterly for Saturday from midnight. This looks to quickly penetrate to even cornwall allowing the possibility of something down their and general light snow, or moderate under lucky areas for a futher 24 hrs.

[Duane S.]

GFS takes a smaller band, quicker, but stalls it further west with a better angle, meaning less rain or sleet or more snow.

Very quickly going from the GFS I would say Devon is probably the boarder zone, high ground in devon snow, lower ground rain or sleet, for cornwall probably a bit of snow for maybe 1 hr and then rain, sorry...

Rest of the SW probably snow. Just one run through but thank goodness it didnt shift things further east...

Agree but don't you get the feeling the adjustments S and W have far from finished by before we get to T-0?

The way the front bulldozed on through on some of the charts I've seen in the past 24 hours just didn't look anyway near right. A very interesting 24+ hours ahead of us!

[A.J]

Worth noting on this particular run, the ppn signal seems weaker than previous runs albeit less marginal, more wintry in nature for more of the region

[BristolBlizzard]

Dare I say it, but the West Country suddenly looks like the sweet spot.

Bank bank bank!

[Iceberg]

Yes

Agree but don't you get the feeling the adjustments S and W have far from finished by before we get to T-0?

The way the front bulldozed on through on some of the charts I've seen in the past 24 hours just didn't look anyway near right. A very interesting 24+ hours ahead of us!

A tiny tiny change to the jet angle makes a huge difference for some areas, others like N.dorset, glos, wilts etc look to get it come what may, but an excellent run imho.

It will certainly change a bit (maybe 50 miles either way).

[Argyle1980]

It is only just the start of this cold spell for Cornwall. Plenty of this cold spell left.

[jessandjon]

It is only just the start of this cold spell for Cornwall. Plenty of this cold spell left.

Here here!!!

[jethro]

Hi Birdman,

I'm living in Stroud but grew up ibn Chipping Norton (Chippy) so know your area well. Having been at school during 1963 I think I can say that you shoud do really well indeed out of this upcoming event!

Enjoy!

Oh goodness, a small world....I'm ex Chippy school too.

[Ali1977]

I think monday will be an even bigger snow event

[divadee]

Oh how I wish metcheck was a reliable site. Snow right through till Tuesday next week! I can but dream!

[Sainsbo]

I think monday will be an even bigger snow event

It certainly looks like it has the potential to be, but It's still 5 days away.

Max temp here today was -1.1C - Temps fell to almost -5C last night, with the possibility of it being colder tonight.

[birdman]

Hi Birdman and welcome.

I'm from Oxfordshire, grew up about 6 miles from you, moved around a bit as an adult, up to North Yorkshire and back down again until I landed up in Somerset. No idea how old you are but if you're anywhere near as old as me, you'll remember the 81-82 winter up there - I'm keeping everything crossed for a repeat this weekend.

Quick question.... do they still put the snow fences up on the Oxford to Banbury road? I remember as a kid they used to go up every year at the start of winter as there was always a period where it could be expected to drift across there.

I was only five in 81 but do have some vague memories of decent snow as a kid. The road you are talking about must be the A4260 (passes through Adderbury and Deddington) although I dont drive it very often so dont know about the snow fences. Sounds interesting though!

[Iceberg]

UKMET GM is out and shows a notable movement westward, pretty much making snow a certainty away from cornwall and devon (sorry again folks), it also has much heavier precip that lasts alot longer (twice as long as GFS in the moderate range).

Overall it continues well (UKMET has moved 30-40 miles westward as well with the sustained cold air.)