South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[coram]

Indeed AWD and for others to understand, is that where the snow falls and lies, local to your patch, the snowcover will simply aid further cooling down and modifying of the air nearby.

AFAIK, none of the existing model output takes account of these aforementioned factors.

In other words, everything from t+0 onwards will change, so picking out specific snowfall amounts is futile, as is DP and AT predictions.

Its GAME ON SNOW for a whole of this region and I can't wait for the next 48 hours to start counting down.

Actually it is increasingly looking like 'game-off' for most of this region. Only the far north of this region has a good chance of heavy, lasting snow. The far west will get nothing, the middle part of the region will get snow transitioning to rain on Friday and the far east will get some lying snow into Saturdat which will then all be gone by the end of Sunday.

The likelihood that the front will give heavy snow for the midlands northwards also means that we will have pretty average winter weather for the beginning of next week.

[latitude]

BBC graphics updated for my village Yatton, now to heavy snow, but an increase in temps from 1 to 2.

In heavy snow showers the temperature drops anyway (i think?)

[Mark Neal.]

-2.2c here and thick freezing fog.

[TimMB]

I am going out on a limb here, my view....GAME ON. :-)

[snow drift]

We can all guess at being on or not but thats what we are doing, guessing.

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Alert of Snow for South West England :

North Somerset, Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, South Gloucestershire & Wiltshire

Yellow Alert of Snow for South West England :

Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Wiltshire & Torbay .

Valid from: 0400 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1800 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10-15 cm of snow could well occur quite widely, with the risk of 25 cm or more over high ground.

Clearly there is the potential for some severe disruption, and the public are advised to watch for updates to this warning and to be prepared to alter travel plans.

Issued at: 1123 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=E0CA7FAE-F986-851C-17A7-3DC5AA173D94_3_SW&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358251260

[Timer]

Just below freezing here (-0.2C). Fog lifting a little with some apologetic sunshine.

Would imagine tonight will be colder - last night's low was -4C.

[Ali1977]

Game on for east Devon eastwards

[coxxy22]

Actually it is increasingly looking like 'game-off' for most of this region. Only the far north of this region has a good chance of heavy, lasting snow. The far west will get nothing, the middle part of the region will get snow transitioning to rain on Friday and the far east will get some lying snow into Saturdat which will then all be gone by the end of Sunday.

The likelihood that the front will give heavy snow for the midlands northwards also means that we will have pretty average winter weather for the beginning of next week.

what are you basing this on ??

[Coast]

Game on for east Devon eastwards

Watch the 12z output and we'll see, but I suspect you're right!

[djpaulbailey]

Meto changes the forecast for Bournemouth every time they update. Latest 12.58 Sleet then rain. an hour ago it was sleet then snow. Thinking a trip up North will be needed, some where like verwood!!!!!!!!

Why? In Bournemouth we may have reason to say this but where you are is looking good.

Verwood always does well!

[rowieboyz]

Some damn cold Temperatures showing up here, courtesy of weather online.

Get the cold in and the snow should come.

Sadly, as is often the case the immediate coastline and SW approaches are under their usual maritime influence, with Temps in the region of 5c to 7c right now.

Sadly the colder air has never really made it this far down and west, even high up on the moor it has not been that cold. I have seen much worse to be honest. Quite often see ice days up here but nothing like that at the moment. Good luck to everyone who gets the snow. I can see from the quoted post above that some areas have good cold temps for the precipitation to bump into. I'm hoping over the next couple weeks the effects of the ssw will filter some real cold temps this way. Otherwise all it will bring us devon and Cornwall lot is rain.................and we have seen that before lol. Best of luck guys.

[cerneman]

Light snow flurries here at moment very overcast

[gottolovethisweather]

Actually it is increasingly looking like 'game-off' for most of this region. Only the far north of this region has a good chance of heavy, lasting snow. The far west will get nothing, the middle part of the region will get snow transitioning to rain on Friday and the far east will get some lying snow into Saturdat which will then all be gone by the end of Sunday.

The likelihood that the front will give heavy snow for the midlands northwards also means that we will have pretty average winter weather for the beginning of next week.

I'm not especially concentrating on my patch as things stand, I am more interested in where the current Fax Charts are expected to place the various fronts.

This surface feature should be showing up in the t+36 to t+48 timeframe and even the latest output, has no idea of where the snow is going to fall.

To me, things are most definitely GAME ON and hopefully, the afternoon outputs will back up my rather confident, possibly foolish opinion.

Its all open to how we read things but I simply steer clear of from any of the other runs, bar the afternoon suites.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Schmalex]

Could any of the learned folk here take a stab at what we might expect from this event in the Newbury area?

[Coast]

Could any of the learned folk here take a stab at what we might expect from this event in the Newbury area?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=will-it-snow;sess=

[Andy Pepler]

just a quick note to everyone that may be hit with this white stuff..

if you have a neighbour that is old or vulnerable check them out .. as i was walking down to my local horse meat supplyer(tesco) when a old gent asked me to help him as his boiler was not working .. as i went in to his house it was bitter cold with no heating what so ever.. lucky i managed to restart his boiler and get him and his wife warmed up .. i know it is a exciteing time to all snow and ice lovers out there..but for the old and vulnerable it could be life or death (esp with gov cutbacks)...

so i ask you all to take 5 mins of your time and just check on those who will need help in this cold snap..

just a thought

andy

[Catacol]

So anyone North of the M4 in the West country should make plans to maybe work from home or risk getting stranded? Wonder if the schools will even bother opening if it's forecast to snow all day?

Teacher here - it will be like your classic April cricket match. Forecast says rain; skies say rain; common sense says rain so dont bother... but until it is 3pm and the sky is full of water the umpires wont call the match off. Schools will stay open unless the snow arrives significantly on Thursday night, but plan to close - - - and chaos will ensue.

[khodds]

Calm down everyone! It's still +24 hrs away and hasn't happened yet . I'm a nervous wreck reading all these "it's over for me" posts!

[gottolovethisweather]

Sadly the colder air has never really made it this far down and west, even high up on the moor it has not been that cold. I have seen much worse to be honest. Quite often see ice days up here but nothing like that at the moment. Good luck to everyone who gets the snow. I can see from the quoted post above that some areas have good cold temps for the precipitation to bump into. I'm hoping over the next couple weeks the effects of the ssw will filter some real cold temps this way. Otherwise all it will bring us devon and Cornwall lot is rain.................and we have seen that before lol. Best of luck guys.

Yes, I feel for you based on the current expectations. However, my expectations are that parts of Cornwall and Devon will see some snow in the coming week or so. Namely, for now, I would keep watching the latest radar outputs as that band out West is readily turning to sleetiness elsewhere. Ok, for now, things are rather too mild, however some of the overnight output hints at the colder air undercutting and pushing much further westwards during Friday.

As it is, things are very much up in the air as can be expected.

[jessandjon]

Light snow flurries here at moment very overcast

Whatever are you???

[Bristawl Si]

Could any of the learned folk here take a stab at what we might expect from this event in the Newbury area?

One of the 'sweet spots' i reckon.

Phil Warks just posted in mad disc thread latest NMM precipitation charts for Fri morning.

Not looking good for south west, incl. Bristol.

Cotswolds and to the East towards Swindon, Newbury looks fine.

Hopefully, a shift south and west over next 24 hours.

[snowmadchrisuk]

BBC graphics updated for my village Yatton, now to heavy snow, but an increase in temps from 1 to 2.

In heavy snow showers the temperature drops anyway (i think?)

I think Yatton will do ok , I am even hoping for at least some heavy Falling snow on Weston sea front , we got some Sunday night ,all though nothing settled. I then went up to leicestershire in the midlands and it was no where near as bad as forecast , maybe 1cm on the ground at best . Our best chance would be the stalling situation as was shown earlier in the week , That way the precipitation would stall over the SW but the Milder air would move SE into France , leaving us with DEC 2010 quantity falls.

[gottolovethisweather]

Could any of the learned folk here take a stab at what we might expect from this event in the Newbury area?

I'm from Newbury and I'm afraid, it is far too early to predict anything with confidence. Only within <t+24 hours, will we have any confidence at all, as to the whereabouts of the SNOW.

For now, try reading my analysis from yesterday, based on the GFS 12z.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2505801

All the afternoon outputs today, will provide further guidance but even then, things will obviously change.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[rodders]

Fantastic animation just posted on WMD by Nick JB thought I would share it with this thread.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

It's previous satellite images animated up to current. Gives a real insight into what is going on currently. Slightly easier to understand compared to the psychedelic weather charts, that are so often difficult to read and rely upon for us knuckle draggers!

I'm cheering on the easterly high pushing back, I'm sure I can convince myself it is heading back westward by the end of the animation.

Still clutching at straws hoping for the snow for us in the deep south west.