South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[AWD]

Anyone see GP's ramp in the MOD thread?

[Buzz]

Anyone see GP's ramp in the MOD thread?

Yeah, nearly broke my neck tripping over it ...............

[Frosty_wsm]

Now i still hope next gfs pulls it back a bit further west.

Fingers crossed.

when the event is actually happening I wouldn't be surprised to see the band struggling to make eastward progression, there's was a definite trend in the models yesterday to increase the strength of the block to the north east, be very interesting to see if they continue that trend in the 12z runs later.

[124alex]

I think that you'll be ok depending on what time you set off and the elevation of your route and destination. Generally speaking, it will be raining for most of Friday in low lying parts of Devon with only temporary accumulations early in the day.

By the coast so should be ok, travelling back to somerset early/ late evening will getting back be a problem?

Edited January 16, 2013 by 124alex

[theprophecyman]

Upgrade for the Bristol area from Ian;

W COUNTRY Anticipate 5-10cm widely within Amber Warning area lower levels, e.g. Bristol; 10-20cm uplands B&NES, FoD, W Cotswolds; Mendips

In your view, would you also expect potential warnings for Saturday as well? Or an extension of the current warning, currently has 04:00 - 18:00 Fri

Cheers

[AWD]

In your view, would you also expect potential warnings for Saturday as well? Or an extension of the current warning, currently has 04:00 - 18:00 Fri

Cheers

Aside from maybe the far north of the Cotswolds, no, not for Saturday.

Good model agreement for Saturday to be characterised by slightly less cold air before a renewed surge into Sunday.

[hubba_dubba]

Really hoping this little corner of the South West known as North Devon gets to see some of the action. So far not even had a below freezing temp..

Fingers crossed..

[124alex]

In your view, would you also expect potential warnings for Saturday as well? Or an extension of the current warning, currently has 04:00 - 18:00 Fri

Cheers

Ian said the warnings could still be upgraded in the upcoming days, could get shifted further west... hopefully or further north

W COUNTRY In broadest terms, we anticipate worst conditions during morning & first half of day, easing gradually to N during afternoon

From Fergie Himself

[Lynxus]

Oh dear,

Talk to 25+Cm's and "Contingency plans for an extended long period of cold weather" makes me want to explode with Joy.

I really hope for mine ( and others ) sanity.. That this time next week is not 10c and raining.

[AWD]

I really hope for mine ( and others ) sanity.. That this time next week is not 10c and raining.

Going by the latest model output, you genuinely do have more chance of seeing 25cm of snow rather than 10c next week!

[Nights King]

Oh my word I think I'd be in heaven if this came off! 25cm!?

Met office still have me down for snow saturday AWD so not sure how much warmer it will be??

My forecast for local area says snow thursday,friday, sat and sunday

Edited January 16, 2013 by mullender83

[Wilxy]

Going by the latest model output, you genuinely do have more chance of seeing 25cm of snow rather than 10c next week!

How would you say its looking for us, id say still marginal, but i hope for a west shift in next run?

[Karl83]

I cant quite believe this is happening! I would like to express my excitement by sharing a bottle of virtual champagne with all my SW comrades.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Karl83

[AWD]

Oh my word I think I'd be in heaven if this came off! 25cm!?

Met office still have me down for snow saturday AWD so not sure how much warmer it will be??

The Met Office also have me down for just 2c too, but going by latest model data, and latest thoughts from Ian, seems to suggest low chance of snow on Saturday, with the Met Office leaning towards a more progressive outlook than the GFS at this stage.

Anyway, a lot will still change between now and then.

[AWD]

How would you say its looking for us, id say still marginal, but i hope for a west shift in next run?

Friday is looking good, nothing too marginal yet about Friday, although a small SW correction in the pattern would make me more comfortable.

How long the snowcover would last though I don't know. Gut instinct tells me not very long as current things stand.

[PompeyFC]

This is no good for my ticker ;-) I just feel I will luck out here in Marchwood/Totton. . . . Can someone with more knowledge ( not difficult!) put my fears to rest, am I in with a chance? Pleeeaaase?

yes - the south coast will be in with a chance - look at the metoffice warning !!!

[Wilxy]

25-50mile west shift would make me happy any further shift east and it could become a bit of a concern of rain, fingers crossed.

[ffowen]

Light snow here

[karlos1983]

How's my location looking do we think? Nervous

[gottolovethisweather]

Still below freezing here in Newbury - currently -0.4C having peaked at -0.3C at 10:46. GTLTW what are your current readings?

Some bone chilling temps forecast Fri, Sat, Sun nights where the skies clear and there is decent snow cover. I'd expect to see some double digit minima, somewhere like Yeovilton, Boscombe or Benson could get as low as -15C with towns down to -10C. If you have any susceptible pipes I'd get prepping them now where possible.

Some sound advice earlier.

Currently -1.3c so an ICE day looks a decent possibility.

I must say, I am looking forward to this amazing scenario developing. IMBY, I may well miss the best of the action but I don't care about that, to be honest.

Bring on the snow for folks in the Southwest, beats the incessant rainfall of recent months by a long shot.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

How's my location looking do we think? Nervous

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=will-it-snow;sess=

[kernowman]

I'm getting more and more depressed reading this form. It is positively tropical here in West Cornwall. Just can't believe we down here can be so close yet so far away from all the fun and games coming.

[Frank Trough]

How's my location looking do we think? Nervous

me too. you can never be anything other than nervous right on the coast. Hard as it is, it really is going to be a case of now casting as the event develops. Timings etc will be crucial for us....for what it's worth i think we have a better chance then for the Feb event last year when it rained. The eastern element to the surface feed might just tip the balance....but of course, i'm perhaps just hoping for the best.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[AWD]

Recently updated weekend forecast from the Met Office;

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Remaining cold and windy. Outbreaks of sleet and snow spreading northeast through Friday and Saturday. Further rain and hill snow is then likely Sunday. Overnight frost and ice in east.

Sounds like the further north and east you are in the region, the better the chance of seeing sustained snowcover. Cotswolds could get buried this weekend.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm getting more and more depressed reading this form. It is positively tropical here in West Cornwall. Just can't believe we down here can be so close yet so far away from all the fun and games coming.

The future is yet to be determined so you just never know.

If you don't get snow at your location, anywhere in Cornwall with elevation on their side could well be worth a trip out to see it, come Saturday.