South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[Bethany C]

As I'll be in work all day tomorrow I won't be able to weather watch as much which is good, but I have Friday off so i can watch it all unfold!

[BristolBlizzard]

Something unexpected always happens when it comes to snow, it hardly ever pans out quite like it should do Having said that I will definitely sit more comfortably if there's a shift further SW

Potential for snow on monday too, any thoughts on that?

Edited January 16, 2013 by BristolBlizzard

[Beast of Plympton]

Please don't delete mods, got a genuine question here!!

Why Netweather, the BBC and Met Office all have such conflicting views on snowfall? I am at a very high eluvation, is it taken into account when forecasting? If so,which forecast?

Netweather showing mostly rain.... we need some of that, barely had a drop last year!

If someone could help it would be very much appreciated.

Ian

[Southern Storm]

rain on all south and se coasts looking at the met office maps

I give up,I thought dew points and 850 temps were fine for snow on the coasts,obviously not then.

I'm 99% certain that snow will fall along the south coast running from Plymouth and areas to the east.

But I expect it to turn to sleet for a while before colder air gets dragged back west.

I still feel the front will have trouble moving east though, this will come down to now casting if you ask me.

Edited January 16, 2013 by thunderman24

[gottolovethisweather]

Steve's weather station at Thatcham peaked at 0.2C an hour ago and has dipped below freezing again. Where I am by the racecourse I think it should be classified as an ice day, not a lot of fun racing horses round our track that's for sure.

I think we'll need the stubborn low cloud and mist to clear to reach those temps tonight, but I'll gladly be wrong. I reckon -5.2C as the low at about 0230.

Are you sure it won't make -5.3c.

Still a fair way to go to meet 2009 and 2010 expectations in terms of prolonged cold, but I hope we can exceed the snowdepths of both those occasions.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[divadee]

So for my location in the space of a day we have gone from heavy snow to light snow to sleet and now to light rain!!!

This is enough to give me a nervous breakdown. Thank goodness I didn't bother to get the sledge out of the loft!

[The Moo]

Hi peeps - thought you may like this link: http://www.weatherstations.co.uk/aws_map.htm

It's for independent weather stations over the UK, and there are a fair few in the south west / south central area - so for those of you without a weather station who want to keep an eye on stuff like your pressure / dew points locally etc (especially Thurs into Friday!!)... you may find it useful :-)

[big_treacle]

So for my location in the space of a day we have gone from heavy snow to light snow to sleet and now to light rain!!!

This is enough to give me a nervous breakdown. Thank goodness I didn't bother to get the sledge out of the loft!

Yeah, I've gone from heavy snow to light snow to sleet and rain and now it's heavy snow again! lol.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Interesting, could we see much from this?

Friday is looking exciting although I'm still a little nervous about it being a snow turning to rain event although I am encouraged by my personalised meto forecast which has temperatures at or below freezing right into sunday with ppn as snow the whole time.

r.e. tonight , i'm not really sure to be honest , been concentrating on Friday and didn't realize it was forecast , but from what I can see 850 temps are even more conductive to Snowfall tonight than they will be on Friday , so any heavier bursts will be interesting , what ever falls the GFS expects it to stall over our area all night . As for Friday , I think who get's it might keep it and in prone areas , im not that sure about a thaw of lying snow either .. Temps look like remaining very Cold with renewed Snow risk during next week .

[Coast]

[BristolBlizzard]

good stuff

Edited January 16, 2013 by BristolBlizzard

[gottolovethisweather]

Some analysis, courtesy of the currently available MetO Fax Charts.

For the record, these will be adjusted a further three to four times, prior to the rain to snow event taking place.

The following timescales apply.

T+48 (Friday 16th January, 12am) current expectations.

T+60 (Friday 16th January, 12pm) current expectations.

Saturday 17th January, 12am)

And finally T+84 (Saturday 17th January, 12pm)

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[SupaSnowy]

Looking at that they have snow over us. All to play for.

[cerneman]

We reaching half way mark for winter and for our region not been very inspiring todate, There is about to be a push in again of mildier weather front that will give snow for many followed by some return to average temps for most of our region, This will Herald the start of what I believe will be very interesting second part of Winter, I am not myself concerned about snowy weather,, but honestly think winter 2012/13 will have many more surprises in store for cold lovers, So many background signels pointing to such eventuality,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I cannot see this being the last battleground scenario of Winter

[Beast of Plympton]

Currently -29c here in princetown, where are my igloo friends??!!

The year is 2050.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
edited just in case of confusion. Don't upset the locals.

[SupaSnowy]

It looks like the NAE is looking better for us, further west.

[kumquat]

NAE 12z looking quite positive for 6am Friday:

Let's see how it sits with the outher 12z output

[Catacol]

NAE has a definite shift of the pattern west with the attack stalling. Folks in Devon - do not despair. It may not stay as snow, but on the 12z run it certainly starts off as snow.

[Craig84]

Nae last frame the precip line has edged backwards so considering its 6hrs on a definite step west. And look at the heaviest precip now more south than north!

[Ali1977]

I may be bias but im thinking NE wilts is in prime location, little movement east or west should still look good for this area...

[Beast of Plympton]

Sorry gottolovethisweather!

On a more serious note, currently 0.9c and very, very foggy!

[snowmadchrisuk]

I may be bias but im thinking NE wilts is in prime location, little movement east or west should still look good for this area...

I think Weston-Super-Mare will be ..... Why ?? Cause I live there lol . NE Wilts is in a good location , on current output , but ti depends where this thing actually ends up stalling ...

[BristolBlizzard]

I like the look of this

Edited January 16, 2013 by BristolBlizzard

[DavidLace]

Plymouth is the very last pixel

[Frosty_wsm]

Someone on the mod thread said the latest nae is poor, oh hang on, they live in the east lol

C'mon you gfs, show the same westerly shift.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Smartie