South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[latitude]

I'm still reserving judgment until the big day. Very high stakes here, I hope I am not one of the unlucky ones who are sat under rain while 25-50miles away people are getting buried under snow, how depressing would that be!

Weston is the warmest place in North Somerset in the Winter! Many times my Father has travelled from Yatton with minus temperatures and frost/snow to find wet old weston! But not so long ago I remember that streamer from Wales which gave a good few inches and a mile either side of Weston saw nothing. Lots to play for...being near the coast will increase the temps a little for sure.

[musician]

Live in West Oxfordshire so not quite cotswolds but near! Hope to see a good dumping from this. Had 6cm the other day so cant comlain so far. From a purely selfish point of view would like a slight shift east which may happen over next 24 hrs. Good news is the majority of people will do well out of this.

First post by the way so hello to everyone. Any other Oxfordshire folk on here?

Cheers

Hi Birdman,

I'm living in Stroud but grew up ibn Chipping Norton (Chippy) so know your area well. Having been at school during 1963 I think I can say that you shoud do really well indeed out of this upcoming event!

Enjoy!

[jtay]

Very nice!! Sun has finally bucked up here too!

Thanks Coast. A lunchtime question too, if I may. We all love a 'what should I do?' post, I know I sure do.

I did consider putting it in the Model Output Dilemma thread, for the attention of Nick, Steve, Batman, etc, but our resident experts might be able to assist.

I'm due to be tiling a 'bon bon purple' cooker splashback on Saturday morning, but I'm wondering at which point I can tell the love of my life that she can poke it.

If I wait until it's snowing on Friday evening, the ensuing heated debate may take the shine from the weekend's high jinx atop Clearbury hill.

Ideally, I'd like to get the discussion out of the way this evening, as the following silent treatment will also aid my enjoyment of tonight's FA cup 3rd round reply between United and West Ham. You will understand however, that any last minute downgrade would mean a pointless row, a soul destroying green awakening on Saturday morning and subsequently, a botched tiling job. Hopefully you'll understand the bind I'm in.

The question is... can I rely on the models as they stand? I'm inclined to wait for this evening's 12z NAE at 48hrs, explain the predicament and settle in for a goal and snow fest.

What say you Netweather buddies?

[Mapantz]

Still forecasting sleet for bournemouth. Pants!!

Ignore it. Most forecast outputs such as weather widgets etc, are just converted from the raw output using some computer code, they don't have any human input in to them. The only time they're useful is when high pressure is slap-bang over us.

[jessandjon]

I think they should create a thread for the depressed cornwall folk we could call it the no snow club!!!!

[coxxy22]

This is getting tense now really would like to see a shift west next run how likely is that?

i would say fairly likely ;0) the 06z recently favours a more eatern shift while the 12z seems to shift back west

fingers crossed

[Wilxy]

I think they should create a thread for the depressed cornwall folk we could call it the no snow club!!!!

I feel your pain i really hope for a westward shift next run, otherwise it may be game over its a very marginal setup but if just right would give somewhere a bit dumping.

[Jason74]

Still forecasting sleet for bournemouth. Pants!!

I try to keep my expectations low for our part of the country. That way I'm never disappointed if nothing materializes; and anything that does is a bonus.

[coxxy22]

its not game over yet !! it will probaly shift back and forward right up till friday

i hear no fat lady singing !!!

[theprophecyman]

This is getting tense now really would like to see a shift west next run how likely is that?

Got this earlier from AWD, may help??

theprophecyman, on 16 January 2013 - 09:55 , said:

Hi, I;'ve seen a few comments re the 06Z re eastward shifts, and the 12Z will shunt it back westwards, was just wondering if there's anything different from the 06z and 12z model runs?? Cheers guys....

FROM AWD

12z is generally a little more reliable due to having a tad more data input to it.

Been a common theme of late for the 06z run to be eastern biased, only for the 12z run to correct west again.

Not saying it will happen this time, it might not, just saying that's been the scenario recently.

Edited January 16, 2013 by theprophecyman

[snowmadchrisuk]

typical 6z making it more marginal for us lot again ... Although caution from what happened on Monday is required , I do think we have a slightly higher chance this time , Cold air is starting to get embedded now , and ahead of the front there will be some very low night time mins, Initial Snow is very likely from East Devon Eastwards ... Rain always more likely for Extreme West South such as Penzance , Torquey Dawlish. Even in these areas though we could be looking at a Snow to Rain to Snow Event as the Milder air quickly get's pushed away SE , have been a way for a couple of days and not had chance to log on but does any body know what Ian F's thoughts are on Friday for our area ... Would be interested to see what MOGREPS thinks.

[Argyle1980]

It's a long winter for us in Cornwall and I know the best is yet to come..... Good things will come! :-)

[A.J]

Relax folks, too many peeps getting far too stressed about frozen water.

Spare a thought for me...I'm only going to get about 50cm of laying snow this weekend, hardly enough to kick start my bid to hold the winter olympics at Lyneham!

[dancing daisy]

Thanks Coast. A lunchtime question too, if I may. We all love a 'what should I do?' post, I know I sure do.

I did consider putting it in the Model Output Dilemma thread, for the attention of Nick, Steve, Batman, etc, but our resident experts might be able to assist.

I'm due to be tiling a 'bon bon purple' cooker splashback on Saturday morning, but I'm wondering at which point I can tell the love of my life that she can poke it.

If I wait until it's snowing on Friday evening, the ensuing heated debate may take the shine from the weekend's high jinx atop Clearbury hill.

Ideally, I'd like to get the discussion out of the way this evening, as the following silent treatment will also aid my enjoyment of tonight's FA cup 3rd round reply between United and West Ham. You will understand however, that any last minute downgrade would mean a pointless row, a soul destroying green awakening on Saturday morning and subsequently, a botched tiling job. Hopefully you'll understand the bind I'm in.

The question is... can I rely on the models as they stand? I'm inclined to wait for this evening's 12z NAE at 48hrs, explain the predicament and settle in for a goal and snow fest.

What say you Netweather buddies?

Just do the tiling you lazy sod!

V. cold out today IMBY, the coldest I have known it since Dec 2010. Is it a sign?

[khodds]

Well People... I am just a little bit excited! Everyone at work thinks I'm crazy! Wonder if this is on a par with December 2010? I cant think back to remember how long it snowed then.

Just been having a debate at work about the legality of clearing snow and gritting outside premises? Anyone know if you can be sued if someone falls over on what you have cleared? We think not?

[AWD]

Currently 0.7c here. Anywhere still yet to get above freezing?

[gottolovethisweather]

Currently 0.7c here. Anywhere still yet to get above freezing?

Yes, -0.9C in my sheltered location, that is Newbury, Berkshire.

[Lynxus]

Currently 2.3c here.

Dewpoint of -0.7

[AWD]

Just to let you all know, anyone interested in the latest thoughts of our resident professional can hear his latest forecast on these radio stations at these times;

I'll also give more detailed local forecasts on radio at 4:20pm & 5:20pm @BBCWiltshire ; 4:35pm & 5:35pm @BBCGlos ; and 4.45pm @bbcsomerset

[dancing daisy]

Currently 0.7c here. Anywhere still yet to get above freezing?

According to Meto app it is 1c here but believe me it feels much colder than that, we still have frost on the ground in places.

[jessandjon]

6c and dew point 1 and falling hmmmmm

[Davey80]

-1c in Basingstoke now. I'm not hopeful that we will see much white stuff on Friday though

[gottolovethisweather]

Some damn cold Temperatures showing up here, courtesy of weather online.

Get the cold in and the snow should come.

Sadly, as is often the case the immediate coastline and SW approaches are under their usual maritime influence, with Temps in the region of 5c to 7c right now.

[snow drift]

Meto changes the forecast for Bournemouth every time they update. Latest 12.58 Sleet then rain. an hour ago it was sleet then snow. Thinking a trip up North will be needed, some where like verwood!!!!!!!!

-1c in Basingstoke now. I'm not hopeful that we will see much white stuff on Friday though

Why? In Bournemouth we may have reason to say this but where you are is looking good.

[Bristawl Si]

Latest BBC news weather at 1.30 seemed to push more of South West in less cold temps for Friday and so v marginal.

At the mo just south of Bristol seems to be the dividing line, but with Dorset, Wilts, Glos and to their north and east in the snow firing line.

Sure this will change though.