South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[ARTDEMOLE]

Just read the 12 pages and 239 posts...Seems like we may have some snow Friday of varying depths..... ...0.4 ºc. Calm ,overhead cloud, sun has been oout...

[coram]

what are you basing this on ??

Probabilities and the steady downgrading of the forecast. It takes very specific synoptic conditions for there to be a widespread and lasting heavy snowfall in the south-west. On this basis it probably won't happen and the Met Office is not forecasting it to happen.

[Coast]

Probabilities and the steady downgrading of the forecast. It takes very specific synoptic conditions for there to be a widespread and lasting heavy snowfall in the south-west. On this basis it probably won't happen and the Met Office is not forecasting it to happen.

But there again, it may just happen so watch the radar and you'll see!!

Stand by for icy blasts and heavy snow on Friday - but you'll get hit by freezing fog first

Winter tightens grip as widespread travel disruption looms for the end of the week

Winter is tightening its grip over much of the UK, with widespread freezing fog tomorrow following by extensive snow falling during much of Friday. The lowest temperatures into today were -12.7C at Braemar in Scotland and -12.1C at Houghton Hall in Norfolk, MeteoGroup said that average temperatures were between -3C and -7C, and -3C in London - with worse to come. In Norfolk 262 schools have closed due to the weather

But many of us could feel even colder tomorrow. Laura Caldwell, a forecaster with the MeteoGroup weather division of the Press Association, said tonight's minimum could be -8C or even lower where snow is lying already. Tomorrow will see widespread fog, especially in eastern England - with temperatures struggling to crawl above freezing apart from in the south and west. Winds pick up into Friday, with the potential for gale force gusts in coastal areas - making 0C feel like up to -8C.

Most of England and Scotland would see significant snowfalls from daybreak, with possible blizzard conditions in exposed areas. Apart from the south and west, snowfall would be widespread and significant - not clearing until towards the end of the day.

And then freezing fog returns on Saturday.

Today, RAC spokesman Simon Williams said that operators had dealt with a normal day's worth of calls before midday in East Anglia, one of the worst-hit areas "We are experiencing a high volume of call-outs in coastal areas from the north east to Brighton in the south," he added. "The main issues are frozen doors, petrol caps, windows and handbrakes. "Nationally, we are expecting 8,500 breakdowns today, which is 1,000 more than a normal winter's day."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stand-by-for-icy-blasts-and-heavy-snow-on-friday--but-youll-get-hit-by-freezing-fog-first-8453159.html

[cerneman]

Whatever are you???

HI not far Cerne abbas, stopped now was very light grains, Good indication that temps more conducive for snow, Edited January 16, 2013 by cerneman

[Mapantz]

[Davey80]

I wouldn't say Newbury is a sweet spot. I'm in Basingstoke. Would say our areas are more safe spots really.

[fromey]

afternoon all.

i think we should all wait for what Ian F has to say on this little matter and take his guidance on the coming events.

fromey

[Catacol]

Probabilities and the steady downgrading of the forecast. It takes very specific synoptic conditions for there to be a widespread and lasting heavy snowfall in the south-west. On this basis it probably won't happen and the Met Office is not forecasting it to happen.

Absolute nonsense. The potential is significant - both for an all rain event or an all snow event. The yellow warning from the Met is extensive, and anyone who knows their stuff will tell you that when a cold block stands in the way of an atlantic push it is almost impossible to forecast correctly what will occur. Experience tells me that cold often resists stonger than the models predict, so for Devon it is not game over yet. You are guessing - plain and simple - and at best your guess is no more or no less accurate than anyone else's at this point.

Bottom line is we wont have a clear handle on this until Thursday afternoon at the earliest.

[theprophecyman]

Calm down everyone! It's still +24 hrs away and hasn't happened yet . I'm a nervous wreck reading all these "it's over for me" posts!

Totally agree I'm sure between now and Friday we will ALL see upgrades/downgrades for your own specific areas,,,,,,,,

[SupaSnowy]

Aww look how that line misses the more extreme coasts in southern areas, that's where I am haha.

Well looking forward to the next lot of models. I'm not sure what to expect to be honest, it's a very hard one to call. It's going to be a looonng day tomorrow of will it won't it, I'm not sticking my neck out for my area until I see more info and maybe tomorrow when it's much closer.

Edited January 16, 2013 by SupaSnowy

[somersetwolf]

Bath is right on the border of the dark blue area on the met office risk map. Fingers crossed for a movement back west!!!

Plenty more twists and turns ahead methinks!!!!

[Snowfan50]

Aww look how that line misses the more extreme coasts in southern areas, that's where I am haha.

Well looking forward to the next lot of models. I'm not sure what to expect to be honest, it's a very hard one to call. It's going to be a looonng day tomorrow of will it won't it, I'm not sticking my neck out for my area until I see more info and maybe tomorrow when it's much closer.

The line stops about 20 miles from me aswell, friggin joke.

[Frosty_wsm]

Having a look at the met office app on my s3 I see my area is right on the edge of that Amber snow warning, nice

[snowmadchrisuk]

didn't realize there was a possibilty of snow for somerset tonight ... that band heading our way could really pep up over the Bristol channel , why at the same time temps will be falling well below freezing ... Hmm might not have to wait as long as I thought,,,

[Ali1977]

That METO map says thaw of lying snow in SW, would that be extreme SW, or mean areas such as wilts , Somerset?

[AWD]

My Met Office App for Bristol shows heavy snow Friday;

Continuing as light snow into the early hours of Saturday morning. Remaining cold through the weekend with temperatures struggling to get above a couple of degrees;

I keep expecting it to show temperatures to rise to less cold values and the rain shower symbol to appear on Saturday as that's what I'm seeing in the models, but after a few updates throughout today, it still suggests a cold weekend IMBY.

So I've come to the conclusion, who knows?

[birdman]

Hi Birdman,

I'm living in Stroud but grew up ibn Chipping Norton (Chippy) so know your area well. Having been at school during 1963 I think I can say that you shoud do really well indeed out of this upcoming event!

Enjoy!

Hi musician and thanks for the input. I bet everything since 1963 seems tame. Before my time being born in 77 although have seen some great black and white images of it. Who knows but maybe the next few weeks will be just as memorable.

[Ali1977]

Looks like the amber zone warning may increase in size also looking at that picture

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks for that, Mapantz.

Incidentally, for those folk in my region, that suggests 2-5cms and up to 10cm in the higher parts of the Newbury, Basingstoke, Odiham area.

I think we should at least stop predicting this and that and let the experts (MetO affiliated guys and gals) tell it how they think things will develop.

FWIW, it looks like being an ICE day today, here in Newbury as it is currently -0.6c and I suspect it will be in the region of -7c to -10c locally, by the morning. Hopefully, the atmosphere will continue to be condusive for snowfall over many parts of our region.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[SLEETY]

rain on all south and se coasts looking at the met office maps

I give up,I thought dew points and 850 temps were fine for snow on the coasts,obviously not then.

Edited January 16, 2013 by SLEETY

[Nights King]

didn't realize there was a possibilty of snow for somerset tonight ... that band heading our way could really pep up over the Bristol channel , why at the same time temps will be falling well below freezing ... Hmm might not have to wait as long as I thought,,,

Interesting, could we see much from this?

Friday is looking exciting although I'm still a little nervous about it being a snow turning to rain event although I am encouraged by my personalised meto forecast which has temperatures at or below freezing right into sunday with ppn as snow the whole time.

Edited January 16, 2013 by mullender83

[A.J]

Quite a few posts in here are bordering on the realms of 'total garbage'......Please think before you post, as my Deleting Finger of Doom â„¢ is getting twitchy.....ta!

[Andy Pepler]

Just uploaded it on youtube a few mins ago.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
replaced link with embedded video

[coram]

Absolute nonsense. The potential is significant - both for an all rain event or an all snow event. The yellow warning from the Met is extensive, and anyone who knows their stuff will tell you that when a cold block stands in the way of an atlantic push it is almost impossible to forecast correctly what will occur. Experience tells me that cold often resists stonger than the models predict, so for Devon it is not game over yet. You are guessing - plain and simple - and at best your guess is no more or no less accurate than anyone else's at this point.

Bottom line is we wont have a clear handle on this until Thursday afternoon at the earliest.

I hope that you're not really a teacher because you don't appear to know the difference betweem probability and potential.

Of course I am guessing, and so is everybody else including the experts. I'm just guessing based on probability rather than guessing based on what I would like to happen. Scotland have the potential to win the Six Nations, but the overwhelming probability is that they won't. Now go and stand in the corner.

[Joneseye]

FWIW, it looks like being an ICE day today, here in Newbury as it is currently -0.6c and I suspect it will be in the region of -7c to -10c locally, by the morning. Hopefully, the atmosphere will continue to be condusive for snowfall over many parts of our region.

Steve's weather station at Thatcham peaked at 0.2C an hour ago and has dipped below freezing again. Where I am by the racecourse I think it should be classified as an ice day, not a lot of fun racing horses round our track that's for sure.

I think we'll need the stubborn low cloud and mist to clear to reach those temps tonight, but I'll gladly be wrong. I reckon -5.2C as the low at about 0230.