South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[Snowkissed]

UKMET GM is out and shows a notable movement westward, pretty much making snow a certainty away from cornwall and devon (sorry again folks), it also has much heavier precip that lasts alot longer (twice as long as GFS in the moderate range).

Overall it continues well (UKMET has moved 30-40 miles westward as well with the sustained cold air.)

Does this include coastal parts of Dorset Iceberg?

[katemart]

Could be the first all nighter of the winter on Friday

Lets hope the GFS shows the same westerly trend.

Yup. I really, really want to see what that dark pink snow looks like

At the moment NW is forecasting rain here during the middle of the day which will really spoil the party. Still there's only 1 degree in it so fingers crossed temps don't rise above freezing and I get my wish....

Edited January 16, 2013 by katemart

[Iceberg]

Does this include coastal parts of Dorset Iceberg?

Really difficult question....

I think based soley on the 12z's so far, that Poole eastwards might get snow until 2-3pm friday, then it will have to wait again until the east wind kicks in friday night. Wareham purbecks could be ok. weymouth westwards looks just the wrong side. But essentially a trend as the day progresses for coastal areas to turn to sleet until midinight or so when it turn back if there is precip around.

Dont hold me to that though.

[A.J]

Good gravy, Monday's looking a bit tasty for us in the north and east of the region......

[Iceberg]

Jumping forward to monday, GFS takes a much weaker front into the SW but pretty much stalls it their as any momentum is gone to move it eastwards, but it does produce some good moderate snow before sinking away all the way until monday night/v.early tues morning.

[Snowkissed]

Really difficult question....

I think based soley on the 12z's so far, that Poole eastwards might get snow until 2-3pm friday, then it will have to wait again until the east wind kicks in friday night. Wareham purbecks could be ok. weymouth westwards looks just the wrong side. But essentially a trend as the day progresses for coastal areas to turn to sleet until midinight or so when it turn back if there is precip around.

Dont hold me to that though.

Thank you for your reply - you are right, it is a difficult situation to forecast, but it does follow what I feared to be true ....swallowing a realism pill as I type.

[Iceberg]

Last one from me for a little while, UKMET shows yet another sliding low and easterly for tues./wed with good snow potential, with a reload of the pattern.

Far too far out to be taken seriously, but it shows that any return to mild weather could be along time in the offering.

[PompeyFC]

Really difficult question....

I think based soley on the 12z's so far, that Poole eastwards might get snow until 2-3pm friday, then it will have to wait again until the east wind kicks in friday night. Wareham purbecks could be ok. weymouth westwards looks just the wrong side. But essentially a trend as the day progresses for coastal areas to turn to sleet until midinight or so when it turn back if there is precip around.

Dont hold me to that though.

surely lying snow on coastal area's will help surface temperature and modify the air temperature making it less likely to fall as sleet - particularly after midday when the sun starts to wain. I imagine further east you are the better on the coast aswell as the uppers will be colder the further east you go

[Gas Ed]

Still can't believe we're on the verge of something very special for the majority within this region.

Models keep on pushing back the milder breakdown further & further. It always seems to stay beyond T144, if at all.

Everyone I've spoken to today has been talking about the weather, so it's great that we have an amazing Met Office & forecasters to publicise the concerns many may have attached to this wintery weather coming up. Personally, I sooooo want to ramp it up, but something's holding me back after the "close but no cigar" scenario's over the years!

Good luck all

[Coast]

I imagine further east you are the better on the coast aswell as the uppers will be colder the further east you go

[Iceberg]

Thank you for your reply - you are right, it is a difficult situation to forecast, but it does follow what I feared to be true ....swallowing a realism pill as I type.

50/50 tbh I've also found in these situations that wimborne can be on the right side of things and the true snowless zone is just 2-3 miles out of poole.

[Lynxus]

Wow Latest GFS showing pretty much snow from Thursday eve through to Tuesday with Rain coming in on wednesday ( While Wednesday is waaayy to far away to even worry about yet )

Good times. Fingers VERY MUCH CROSSED

If it did indeed rain on wed's then 20+ cm of snow melting + heavy rain would be worrying.....

Edited January 16, 2013 by Lynxus

[DanDorsetUK]

After looking at this run i am now genuinely worried we are looking at a severe spell here, with actually the posibility of it starting as early as tomorrow which i wasnt expecting, to be honest ive gone from oh this will be fun to oh crap!

[divadee]

After looking at this run i am now genuinely worried we are looking at a severe spell here, with actually the posibility of it starting as early as tomorrow which i wasnt expecting, to be honest ive gone from oh this will be fun to oh crap!

Now come on! It will be great fun! The Wessex way will be an ice rink, the roads will be clear as all the oldies will never leave the house!

[DanDorsetUK]

Now come on! It will be great fun! The Wessex way will be an ice rink, the roads will be clear as all the oldies will never leave the house!

Not fun when its my living down the drain!! Im a window cleaner lol

Edited January 16, 2013 by Rapodo

[cerneman]

Now come on! It will be great fun! The Wessex way will be an ice rink, the roads will be clear as all the oldies will never leave the house!

hI i'm oldish, How am I going to get my Horlicks ????

[Beast of Plympton]

NW upgrade for Devon now, Snow, to sleet and back to snow. Forecast from tomorrow now, weird? But im going to get my salt and take a massive pinch of it!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[gottolovethisweather]

I so hope that the current band of precipitation out West peps up a bit and puts a few smiles on those folks in the extremities of the South and West, all before it fizzles out overnight.

If we could add a pre-covering of snow before the main event then there wouldn't be much chance of marginality.

Many parts of the UK, in the East and over Central parts will have had an ICE day today just as I did.

Fascinating times, whatever happens after the main event and into next week.

Just a few days ago, I did believe this spell will take a while in moving, I still think that will be the case, even now.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Sainsbo]

Just noticed that the MetO's amber warning is on the highest column for impact. If the reliability increases, that could turn to red in a few lucky/unlucky spots.

[DanDorsetUK]

Looks like snow monday for the south too better put a snow plough on the front of my van!

[gottolovethisweather]

hI i'm oldish, How am I going to get my Horlicks ????

You should have already got your essentials in, haven't you been listening to the old bugger, who is gottolovethisweather.

[Dave Kightley]

Anyone know where the snow line is on the ukmo?

[EGHH]

Interesting that the 12z runs so far are less progressive and the precipitation totals are perhaps slightly muted compared to the earlier runs - nothing more than mildly interesting at this range, of course.

Love the way the warm front gets smashed, sorry I mean mixed out ;-) , on the UKMO as per the attached animation. That might be the clue as to why the 12z runs are less progressive...

[A.J]

You should have already got your essentials in, haven't you been listening to the old bugger, who is gottolovethisweather.

Not impressed with the latest GFS output Tony....between now and monday night, I'm down to only 35cm of laying snow, what a thoroughly crap cold spell this will turn out to be!

[Wilxy]

Just noticed that the MetO's amber warning is on the highest column for impact. If the reliability increases, that could turn to red in a few lucky/unlucky spots.

Yeah if the impact level stays high, once the confidence goes up red warning could pop up somewhere