Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013 19:00hrs>

[tinybill]

Red — National Emergency

Reached when a period of cold weather is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system. A level 4 warning would be issued on advice from, or in collaboration with, our Government partners. At this level, the health effects may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups.

http://www.metoffice...oldWeatherAlert

this from the model thread

[Eskimo]

Beautiful thick hoar frost on my neighbours tree

[Dan the Man]

Red — National Emergency

Reached when a period of cold weather is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system. A level 4 warning would be issued on advice from, or in collaboration with, our Government partners. At this level, the health effects may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups.

http://www.metoffice...oldWeatherAlert

this from the model thread

What sort of situation would need to occur in this scenario? 20cm snow? -10 surface temps?

[Floatylight]

behind with everything today,breakdown anyone.Met office has colchester snow all day friday and sat,yellow warnings?when i looked last was only snow for west?and poss mids

Edited January 16, 2013 by Floatylight

[Jason T]

What sort of situation would need to occur in this scenario? 20cm snow? -10 surface temps?

2010 had us in red. The current (Predicted) event would exceed 2010. Be careful what we wish for could be truly the case.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Essex weather on Twitter has most of Essex only having 1-2cm on Fri and sat, is it really that painful?

[Sweetdream]

Looking at the latest models looks like we are going to miss out not even going to get that far north. Repeat of 2010 for most of east anglia.

[snowking]

Word on the model thread is that the snow on Friday won't get past the M1, so could be a non-event here.

Always time for further changes though.

That was based upon extreme numptyness....what the poster failed to mention was that they were referring to the NAE (or at least essex weather centre were) which doesn't go beyond 6pm Friday yet! I wouldn't expect more than a few cms by then. The risk for this region is that shortwave development shown on the faxes tonight around the triple point.

If that comes off, then we could have a stall and pivot scenario. Whilst its only an upper front shown over us at present, such a scenario could still produce many hours of continuous light snowfall, which would soon start to mount up!

Nothing is set in stone yet, and won't be for at least another 24 hrs yet

SK

Edited January 16, 2013 by snowking

[shotski]

Essex weather on Twitter has most of Essex only having 1-2cm on Fri and sat, is it really that painful?

On the latest runs yes I'm afraid it is, The main band stals over to the west and dies out.

On the plus side you may do well from North sea convection.

[Justin Pearson]

Well been looking on weather Chanel and met office apps as only looking on my phone but not looking so good for us now really hope I'm wrong but all it looks like for us is a bit of light snow?? Grrr!!!

[Eskimo]

Bear this in mind...the UKMO (metoffice with their supercomputers) and the fax charts (associated with the metoffice) all have us under the snow belt....only the 18z which is joked as one of the most unreliable runs has it decaying well west of us!

[Floatylight]

Holy poo, just read the latest on the recent updates, scary stuff floaty one. Were your kids in the car? They must have been scared onionseless.

Glad you're ok but that bes a lesson for all car drivers, lorry drivers, van drivers and milk float drivers, never forget you are in charge of a deadly weapon each and every time any one of us is behind the wheel.

Right moving on now, the weather is looking very interesting in the coming days, is it not.

Take care all and be lucky.

no kids or dog thank god:) thanks gltw x Edited January 16, 2013 by Floatylight

[shotski]

That was based upon extreme numptyness....what the poster failed to mention was that they were referring to the NAE (or at least essex weather centre were) which doesn't go beyond 6pm Friday yet! I wouldn't expect more than a few cms by then. The risk for this region is that shortwave development shown on the faxes tonight around the triple point.

If that comes off, then we could have a stall and pivot scenario. Whilst its only an upper front shown over us at present, such a scenario could still produce many hours of continuous light snowfall, which would soon start to mount up!

Nothing is set in stone yet, and won't be for at least another 24 hrs yet

SK

Hi SK

Have we had any snippets from MOGREPS from Ian F regarding any Friday ?

[scotteboi]

Model discussion thread dosent hold too much hope for our neck of the woods fri or sat at the moment

Still time to go though, nothing is set in stone yet.....blind faith and optomism..... if we all think hard enough!!

[snowking]

Not that I've seen, other than a quick update I had earlier from essex weather centre but that was longer range based.

In the meantime:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis18/ukuk/prty/13011818_1618.gif

Can we put this one to bed now the snow still modelled to reach us here. And what you can see if you flick between 42 and 48 is the start of the potential pivot I mentioned above.

Still no guarantees it will reach us here, but given the current model output purely at face value, it will.

SK

[Bolton67]

Not that I've seen, other than a quick update I had earlier from essex weather centre but that was longer range based.

In the meantime:

http://expert-images...011818_1618.gif

Can we put this one to bed now the snow still modelled to reach us here. And what you can see if you flick between 42 and 48 is the start of the potential pivot I mentioned above.

Still no guarantees it will reach us here, but given the current model output purely at face value, it will.

SK

Quite happy with that chart, I'm just under the darker blob.

[If Wishes made Weather]

If I'm reading the ECM right - and the UKMO, and they verify, its not likely that we will be winging about possibly too little snow for long.

[Long haul to mild]

Not that I've seen, other than a quick update I had earlier from essex weather centre but that was longer range based.

In the meantime:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis18/ukuk/prty/13011818_1618.gif

Can we put this one to bed now the snow still modelled to reach us here. And what you can see if you flick between 42 and 48 is the start of the potential pivot I mentioned above.

Still no guarantees it will reach us here, but given the current model output purely at face value, it will.

SK

Thanks SK, good to hear a voice of reason!

[Keraunic]

The 18z run doesn't look as good but still looks like Ippy may get some snow early Friday and Saturday pm.

Ah, let's see what happens on the day.

Now watching a Rammstein gig. Marvellous.

[snowking]

If I'm reading the ECM right - and the UKMO, and they verify, its not likely that we will be winging about possibly too little snow for long.

Certainly not Tim! It's a case of snow, clears away, bitter cold, then the next lot of snow, each one helping to re-enforce blocking to our NE

Some truly remarkable Synoptics on offer at the moment, and some of them only 48 hours away

SK

[Snowman.]

Lol I got upgraded on snow heavy instead of light. Don't bother listening to the guys in the model thread base on what u think will happen although the north east you are the more unlikely that u will receive any significant amounts. My turn for something now

[If Wishes made Weather]

And just for East Herts/Essex/Cambridgeshire triple point currently:

Sawbridgeworth is -7c

Stansted is -6c

Saffron Walden at -10c.

[CanadaAl]

And just for East Herts/Essex/Cambridgeshire triple point currently:

Sawbridgeworth is -7c

Stansted is -6c

Saffron Walden at -10c.

I'm in saffron walden, That weather station has been kaput for a while, don't think the owner has realised yet! haha

[fatyido]

Think its best we take stock of what we have at the min which is deep cold providing us wth ice days and very low overnight temps. I know we always want more, but I feel if we cling to the hype alot of people in his region will be left disappointed come Fri evening. I posted earlier that these incoming fronts from the SW, very rarely make it past Northants, and I also said that the M1 motorway is normally its Easterly limit.

Ive also been in the model thread and read what I half expected to read. Reports of charts showing front breaking up, stalling, fizzling out etc.

I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but I expect further downgrades tomorrow for my area. Too far east for Sw frontal snow, and too far east to be affected from easterly showers. Will be wishing like mad though as always....!

[If Wishes made Weather]

I'm in saffron walden, That weather station has been kaput for a while, don't think the owner has realised yet! haha

You mean its colder?