Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013 19:00hrs>

[Mark Burton]

Things have got very interesting tonight! Like TEITS I'm not surprised at this downgrade this evening, and will wait to see what actually happens in our region on Friday. As a point of interest, the heaviest one event snowfall that I have seen here in St Ives occured last Feb 1st - we had a good 15cm of snow in one evening, and that came from the North West!!

[New Flesh 4 Old]

05:30 and it's -8 here.

Be interesting to see some of the numbers posted from around the area later..

Edited January 17, 2013 by benblack

[fatyido]

Forecast Model thread have indicated a slight change again. This is an upgrade for our area. All aboard the daily rollercoaster................

Now the snow may push alittle further East towards us. Im sure by the time I get back home it wouldve changed few times....enjoy

[shotski]

Regions affected by Amber warning:

East Midlands, North West England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber

http://www.metoffice...0&regionName=uk

Morning All

If thats the case MK I think we should call ourselves East Midlanders for the weekend

-4.7 here in Linslade with cloud cover, not bad.

Edited January 17, 2013 by shotski

[shotski]

The BBC have now changed their forecast to come inline with the over night output.

The band weakens to the west of us and we get the dregs, not happy

[huntso]

Just seen Carol's forecast and pretty much what I expected, we are not the driest area for nothing and was always going to struggle to get this far over

[If Wishes made Weather]

And its -8c in Stortford

[essex coast matt]

-4.9 here,looks like the wind turning more east later so the showers over the north sea may come ashore.

[Dan the Man]

Got to say that's a bit of a disappointing downgrade overnight for this area.

Looking ahead, prospects look good long term. If the front had gone straight through, it would wedge open the door for the relentless atlantic fronts.

[chilly milly]

Morning all. Currently -6.1c. Just waiting for it to get light, but think it's going to be a day of clear skies.

Baby it's cold outside!

[Timmytour]

Got to say that's a bit of a disappointing downgrade overnight for this area.

Looking ahead, prospects look good long term. If the front had gone straight through, it would wedge open the door for the relentless atlantic fronts.

I'll confess to being a bit concerned that the cold block to the east is being weakened by a push of mild air into it north of the UK, and that while it's in a sense too strong for our region in pushing back the weekends front, it then succumbs a bit meekly in midweek without giving us the battleground snow.

In fact this weekend's disappointment (for our region) is more to do with the attack from the West tripping itself up than the power of the Cold block

Hoping for better things from the GFS later but concerned that, instead, the other models will start moving towards it's breakdown

[pipsta]

Timmy, even in the model forums all I hear come out of your mouth is windup dribble. You always have something to say to go against the cold. Getting tiresome.

[TheBigFreeze]

OK, i'm confused now....BBC breakfast weather just said the snow will reach all areas and we are still under an amber weather warning...Model forum all doom and gloom saying it wont even reach east midlands and has gone North West etc [which it has by look of things]......confused.com

[Coast]

Does anyone want to try and get to Eastbourne this weekend, GFS says it will still be snowing all the way through to Sunday!!!!

OK, i'm confused now....BBC breakfast weather just said the snow will reach all areas and we are still under an amber weather warning...Model forum all doom and gloom saying it wont even reach east midlands and has gone North West etc [which it has by look of things]......confused.com

What do you reckon? :winky:

[Snowman.]

The snow will reach us just not much

[TheBigFreeze]

Does anyone want to try and get to Eastbourne this weekend, GFS says it will still be snowing all the way through to Sunday!!!!

What do you reckon?

Hi Coast, should we take any notice of those precipitation charts? i'd happily bank that, but read so many posts in model forum saying they should be ignored?? then other people taking the NAE precipitation as gospel??

[pipsta]

Thought this was a forum where people can people can express their views

[Hammer]

Ok so in summary, some posters say hardly no snow, others that overnight model runs a little upgrade for our region & should be some continuous snow albeit light for over 12 hours.

Great to see this clarity :-)

[Methuselah]

Thought this was a forum where people can people can express their views

Of course it is, Pipsta. But personal attacks are not necessary when doing that...They also have the tendency to clog what is already a rather busy thread??

Just agree to disagree??

[Jonathan Leaper]

24hrs to go now

[pipsta]

No you are right sir.

[TheBigFreeze]

yes very confusing for me as a newbie, as i'm not yet fully able to understand the models and confidently draw my own conclusions, even Look East was saying snow for Friday and Sunday with +cm possible both days

[bluearmy]

06z nae is big this morning. From my recollection of 2009/10, placement of features doesnt shift around much within 24 hrs of the onset. We may have passed this point already but the 06z will either cement the areas of snowfall for tomorrow or throw up a bit of a surprise. (Like the 00z runs have done wrt to n ireland).

currently looks like a 2 to 6 cms for the region.

The bad news this morning is next tues/wed with the occlusion getting right into the midlands and a sw flow for us. returning south thereafter but the worst run we've seen for a while. i would discount it but ukmo/ecm/gem all in agreement

[Ben_Cambs]

Looks beautiful outside this morning with a thick hoar frost, currently -8C.

[TheBigFreeze]

06z nae is big this morning. From my recollection of 2009/10, placement of features doesnt shift around much within 24 hrs of the onset. We may have passed this point already but the 06z will either cement the areas of snowfall for tomorrow or throw up a bit of a surprise. (Like the 00z runs have done wrt to n ireland).

currently looks like a 2 to 6 cms for the region.

The bad news this morning is next tues/wed with the occlusion getting right into the midlands and a sw flow for us. returning south thereafter but the worst run we've seen for a while. i would discount it but ukmo/ecm/gem all in agreement

do you think the block will re-assert itself? how do you see this panning out mid term BA?