Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013 19:00hrs>

[Coast]

and it's not just GFS either......

Happy days neighbours!!!

Hi Coast, should we take any notice of those precipitation charts? i'd happily bank that, but read so many posts in model forum saying they should be ignored?? then other people taking the NAE precipitation as gospel??

There is good consensus across a lot of the models, don't worry too much about snow, just how deep it will get!!

[atrow]

as a lot on here I'm very confused I'm obviously alot more west than east Anglia (herts) some are saying we'll get a good amount others saying it won't make it. also BBC show it not making us on video bit if I go on 5 forecast it says snow for 24 hours

[saint]

As coast said, the general consensus across the models suggest we will get some snow, how much, who knows yet. Western parts of the region will I suspect do better of course! I wouldn't take too much notice of the BBC TV forecasts at the moment.

[MagicBat]

as a lot on here I'm very confused I'm obviously alot more west than east Anglia (herts) some are saying we'll get a good amount others saying it won't make it. also BBC show it not making us on video bit if I go on 5 forecast it says snow for 24 hours

Hi Atrow,

This is the normal run up to a possible big snow event. There is so much data out there predicting a range of outcomes - which will continue to swing through out today.

One thing is agreed - we will get snow in our regional area. How much? It will all be down to radar watching from tomorrow morning.

The current average prediction is to 2cm's to 5cm's to our region. But this will firmed up as tomorrow mornign starts.

MagicBat

[Gary_R_Walker]

Look on the bright side if it doesn't snow we can moan about it.

[Habsish]

Looks beautiful outside this morning with a thick hoar frost, currently -8C.

Don't think the whore would like you referring to her mental abilities. Minus 8 here

[Hammer]

You can see why people get annoyed with BBC etc, last night when millions would have been watching they say snow all over England no mention of uncertainty about extent or if front fizzles out despite us all being aware of that risk.

This risk now talked about.

Maybe Netweather experts should do the BBC Weather slot.

[TEITS]

Still difficult to predict tomorrow. The models have slightly improved our prospects but the majority of the precipitation remains light. The real difficulty is if you have prolonged light snowfall then this can actually give good accumulations especially as much of this will fall during the evening/overnight.

Looking at the models and its worth keeping an eye on an area of light snow that could move into the E of this region around midnight and then spread W.

The 06z NAE is coming out so I shall update soon.

[saint]

You can see why people get annoyed with BBC etc, last night when millions would have been watching they say snow all over England no mention of uncertainty about extent or if front fizzles out despite us all being aware of that risk.

This risk now talked about.

Maybe Netweather experts should do the BBC Weather slot.

Considering it now looks like the front will get to parts of EA, it's amazing how inconsistent their forecasts are.

[TEITS]

Lets be honest whatever the models say the actual event always slightly differs.

For example on Monday I expected the wrap around front to move S across my location and yet this occured around 60miles further E.

[Methuselah]

Still difficult to predict tomorrow. The models have slightly improved our prospects but the majority of the precipitation remains light. The real difficulty is if you have prolonged light snowfall then this can actually give good accumulations especially as much of this will fall during the evening/overnight.

Looking at the models and its worth keeping an eye on an area of light snow that could move into the E of this region around midnight and then spread W.

The 06z NAE is coming out so I shall update soon.

I've got my eye on that too, Dave. The wind, what there is of it, seems to have veered slightly more towards the east...

[Coast]

What can I say - if you can get to my house through the drifts, I'll get you a drinkies - all weekend and into Monday!!!!!

[Jason T]

Any snow event prior to happening and shown through various outputs are just mainly guides. Its always the case of waiting till the event starts and radar watching. Either way From tomorrow and through the weekend will be what most of us truly enjoy,The cold is in the snow is on its way,The Atlantic wants to have a go and the block is not really going anywhere soon. Plenty on offer to come for a liitle while yet. Enjoy.

[saint]

What can I say - if you can get to my house through the drifts, I'll get you a drinkies - all weekend and into Monday!!!!!

Haha! For western parts of our region (E.g where I am), it shows at least 6 hours of continuous light snow, which with these temperatures, would settle almost immediately...

[Steve C]

Morning all.

A lovely sunny start to the day here. All rather picturesque with the light snow cover. I imagine parts of Norfolk and Suffolk must look glorious now.

[saint]

This thread is far too quiet for my liking this morning.

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all.

A lovely sunny start to the day here. All rather picturesque with the light snow cover. I imagine parts of Norfolk and Suffolk must look glorious now.

Morning Steve and all,

No sunshine here but a lovely pink sky first thing and a very wintry scene with frost on frost here so yes the places that have got snow cover must look great, hopefully that will be most of us by the weekend !

Thank you for posting the charts Coast

[Coast]

This thread is far too quiet for my liking this morning.

Blimey, don't go in ours then!!!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Coast

[saint]

Blimey, don't go in ours then!!!

You lot post ridiculous amounts down there!

Edited January 17, 2013 by saint

[Ben_Cambs]

Congratulations on 5,000 posts Ali!

[snowblind]

Local forecast on BBC Essex just before 8 this morning - basically snow, snow and more snow. 5-10cm through Friday another 5cms Saturday and more snow Sunday into Monday. All sounds pretty encouraging. No mention of sleet or rain and seemed pretty confident of it reaching here

But then I read this on the regional Meto forecast

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Very cold with an ice risk throughout. Windy with further sleet or snow likely Saturday. Winds ease Sunday, mainly dry but rather cloudy. Outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow Monday.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

So forecasts still a bit contradictory. Hopefully the BBC Essex one is right as it should be more up-to-date but who knows!

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Lovely bright day here in Ippy and its -8. So, a little verse to cheer you all up;

Whether the weather be cold,

Or whether the weather be hot,

We'll weather the weather

Whatever the weather,

Whether we like it or not.

Have a lovely day, everyone.

[Hammer]

Volume of posts does seem to have dropped, I wonder is it that people now in wait and see mode whereas a couple of days ago high volume because more in speculation mode.

Or just people actually getting on with work....

[Jason T]

Going to be a late one tomorrow night,Glad im off this weekend. Yes well done Ali.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Jason T

[snowking]

Morning all

6z NAE rolling out now, definite increase in precip totals vs 0z at the same timeframe, and if we look out to 48:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/17/basis06/ukuk/rsum/13011906_2_1706.gif

5-10mm across the region....given the temp profile, we're probably working with roughly 1mm = 1.5cm, so anything up to 15cms judging by that (more realistically I'd say 5-10cm)....this is of course assuming this run is correct!

I see Matt Hugo over on the model thread mentioning what I was getting at on here last night, and is good to have the useful information that the higher resolution models all in support of the extra shortwave development.

Expect huge swings in modelling in the run up to the event, and expect to be none the wiser until it actuslly arrives because once again modelling will struggle to cope with the projection and angling of the frontal systems given the extra shortwave...potential still lies there for increase in energy into the precip being thrown up from the channel/through the Thames estuary.

By the way, I've seen mention of a 'weakening front' being mentioned on the FAX's....the 'empty flag' front shown on those does. It denote a weakening front (that's denoted by filled flags with a + symbol rather than a solid line) - the empty flags denote an upper front

SK