Far North of England Regional Discussion - Cold and Snow 17/01/13 ->

[Isolated Frost]

WELL AYEEEE

just had to haha

WHY AYEEEE*

You smoggies gave us Holly, for that, you go to the naughty corner.

[Snowstorm1]

WHY AYEEEE*

You smoggies gave us Holly, for that, you go to the naughty corner.

-.- and haha still worth a smash mate!

[Isolated Frost]

TAF for NCL going for snow shrs 0600 to 1200, and snow from 1200 to 1800.

[Alex95]

Things are getting lively along the Yorkshire coast - I think that is expected to expand overnight to bring us our snow tomorrow.

[Geordiesnow]

I think Friday night into Saturday is our best bet for North Sea showers, aslong its not a little more marginal by then of course but with frequent(hopefully) PPN falling then hopefully the cold air will be dragged down anyways so it does not make the temp rise too much!

Regarding tonight, I think we have to be paitent, the trough is projected to stay just offshore on the Faxes earlier on in the day and even into tomorrow, the winds only just veer more into a SSE'ly/SE'ly, I never know many cases of North Sea showers coming from this direction in all honesty.

[snowmackem]

-.- and haha still worth a smash mate!

Definite "two bagger", one over your head in case the one over hers falls off!!

Anyway, after studying this whole build-up carefully for the last 2 weeks or so, here we are, on the brink. I really don't think we are going to be let down in any way at all. If the general model concensus is right, and the fact that in the last couple of days have mainly seen big upgrades, coupled with experience and the whole "feeling" surrounding this event, I seriously think that many places, even down to low levels, will easily see 20 cm on the deck by Sunday morning, seriously. I've just seen Sky News and it was showing a supermatrket in Derby that had the shelves totally stripped bare today, especially bread and bananas of all things - a supreme and salute-worthy example of panic buying following a forecast of 10cm of snow locally!! Pathetic really.It would be great if some parts of the North East exceed the snow depths widely touted today for some Welsh and Southern parts, and I am quietly confident we can,. Enjoy,

Karl

[snowmaddave]

Just out of curiosity does anyone know the last time we had a decent snowy spell in January that lasted a good week or so?

I cannot remember the last time we had a decent cold spell in January!

[Cloud 10]

Latest radar shows the trough lurking,ready to pounce.

An "interesting" day across many parts of the UK tomorrow.

...

[Cloud 10]

Just out of curiosity does anyone know the last time we had a decent snowy spell in January that lasted a good week or so?

I cannot remember the last time we had a decent cold spell in January!

2010 wasn't to bad!!!

[snowmaddave]

Bloody hell was that January, if i remember that rightly that spell was a weird one for me in my location, we got one hell of a pasting on the Saturday evening then by Sunday night into Monday a massive thaw took place and lost most of it.

[Geordiesnow]

Latest radar shows the trough lurking,ready to pounce.

An "interesting" day across many parts of the UK tomorrow.

...

Don't think it will pounce anytime soon though, I think it will stay off shore until morning time I would of thought, although as you say, keep an eye on the radar.

[Snowy McSleety]

We've had a nice dusting just west of Durham city, hoping for some snowy action tomorrow from the north sea. Exciting watching things unfold over the next few days.

[ScottSnow]

Just out of curiosity does anyone know the last time we had a decent snowy spell in January that lasted a good week or so?

I cannot remember the last time we had a decent cold spell in January!

Jan 2010 was a good spell.

[Isolated Frost]

From the Scottish thread

The dynamics of the North Sea seem to favour high intensity snow showers moving first from the SE and then the ESE, from the southern North Sea tomorrow. It looks like NE England, and E Scotland should see very heavy, scattered showers, banding up at times. This probably means both regions are very snowy tomorrow, from morning onwards, with NE Scotland and E Scotland in the firing line. EC dynamics plot a SE/ESE flow come Saturday with strong convection, so lighter or moderate snow shrs for the NE of England/SE of Scotland, and more, very heavy snow showers for NE Scotland and E Scotland.

Sunday, the focus shifts further south- and so the snow showers move in from the E, originally strong in E Scotland, moving into SE Scotland and NE England, for a very snowy wknd.

All eastern coastal counties in NE England and Scotland should be prepared for some heavy convective snow shrs on the wknd, backed up by the NMM and HD-ECM. The focus of these showers shift, but all regions on the east coast, and further inland at times, should be effected with 10-20cm over the next 3 day period in many, the possibility for more also exists.

[NickR]

I'm pretty concerned about Monday and Tuesday now - DPs look high here (and only here - nowhere else in the country!). Could do a LOT of damage to snow cover. Are any models looking more positively on those days? Or any reason to think those DPs would be suppressed?

[Isolated Frost]

Oh yes please! Latest TAF for NCL tomorrow 1200 to 0000.

SE at 130 degrees gusting 46km/h.

Heavy showers snow, blowing snow.

Vis 800m

Tomorrow could be quite something when the cloud movement is ESE/SE!

[Penrith Snow]

Not sure if I belong in this thread as Penrith is to the west of the Pennines but is in the far north of England.

After missing the frontal snow tomorrow I am hoping to cash in on some North sea activity on Saturday, despite being west of the Pennines East Cumbria often has potent snow showers from the east if the cold is deep enough.

10cms-15cms was obtained in January and December 2010 on an easterly, small beer compared to places further east but it was very welcome here.

On 15th Fenruary 1979 Penrith recorded 30cms of snow in 24 hours from a strong easterly flow, God knows what it was like in Durham!

Nick, I wouldnt worry about the dewpoints, surface temperatures will be low enough unless you live right on the coast despite the long sea track.

More snow for you, you lucky bugger

Andy

Edited January 18, 2013 by Penrith Snow

[NickR]

Cheers Andy... can't say I'm totally sold though!

IF - any thoughts on DPs (GFS) on Mon/Tues? Would be a real shame as it could be heavy ppn too!

[Isolated Frost]

Cheers Andy... can't say I'm totally sold though!

IF - any thoughts on DPs (GFS) on Mon/Tues? Would be a real shame as it could be heavy ppn too!

I'd wait until Sunday- plenty to change regarding that- DPs from the GFS are useless- it's got the whole idea wrong and it'll backtrack big time over the wknd towards the GEM, UKMO and ECM (see my post in previous thread re: upper heights).

My amateur prediction forecast for convective snowfall between 0600 Friday and 1800 Sunday

[Mick Ormiston]

Just looked outside and its snowing heavy here in consett.

[Dandy]

Just been in the welsh page, they are getting the good stuff as we speak.

'nowt in Durham at the moment

[Smoggieontour]

Morning all. A lot of showers building up in the North Sea including a line currently off the North Yorks coast stretching down to Norfolk which looks like hitting T&W.

[Isolated Frost]

NCL TAF for tonight?

1800 (18.) to 0600 (19.)

130 SE at 33km/h

gusting to 56km/h

800m

heavy thunderstorm snow; blowing snow

Aye.

[Freezing-Point]

Morning all. A lot of showers building up in the North Sea including a line currently off the North Yorks coast stretching down to Norfolk which looks like hitting T&W.

Yes they are developing fast. There is a conveyor belt of shower activity heading right for us..........

[tynevalleysnow]

Looking good for north northumberland at the mo. Late today (5ish) for the rest of area I reckon.