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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

He pretty much showed this warning for tomorrow but said looking at moving towards north and east later. Hopefully will firm up on as much detail as he can in his bulletin in a few mins:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

2-5cm lower ground, 5-10 higher ground. But details elusive, I guess even now.

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dancing daisy Contributor

dancing daisy

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

I think the difference is the national rely on the previous model run and just stick to that but we are very lucky to have Ian who is truly passionate about having the most accurate and up to date forecast for us.

I have a lot of respect for that. Thank you

Same here. It's great when you see someone who has a vocation and who isn't just doing it for the money. Ian is always spot on, I think that he knows how invaluable a correct forecast is to people, not us lot, we just want to go out and play :D But for the elderly, disabled, health workers, drivers etc etc etc

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted

Looks like these showers moving in off the Bristol Channel are breaking up; not particularly potent from what i can see

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

It's ok, you only need to go a mile inland to see snow tomorrow according to South Toady, PMSL! useless

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted (edited)

I think the difference is the national rely on the previous model run and just stick to that but we are very lucky to have Ian who is truly passionate about having the most accurate and up to date forecast for us.

I have a lot of respect for that. Thank you

Yeah, very glad that we have him! For people asking what he said, he said that it should come in tomorrow morning, (IMBY perspective) which is different to the met's forecast for me, which only shows snow tomorrow evening/night. The weather forecast graphic is basically what he was talking about, with the PPN pushing in to Somerset tomorrow morning, but uncertain to what it is. It then looks like it will push North and east slightly, before giving me some more... Possibly stalling, I'll have to re watch it as I was concentrating on my area!

Edited by dec10snow
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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted

Not convinced tomorrow's snow event will be much of it. Seems to be trending to a more wintry mix type event, other than for higher ground in our region.

Hope to be proved incorrect.

Ian made no mention of poss snow event Thursday, which i think was mentioned and evidenced with charts, by fellow poster on here earlier.

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Polar Bear Community Regular

Polar Bear

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
Posted

It's ok, you only need to go a mile inland to see snow tomorrow according to South Toady, PMSL! useless

oh I dunno i thought her forecast was a little more progressive for south central.. At least she tried to explain and said there was uncertainty but there could be 2 to 5cm outside of the south west. I think she did a good job.
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mitp Newbie

mitp

Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
Posted

Quite an immense forecast by David Braine on Spotlight for Cornwall and Devon tommorrow afternoon snow down to low levels as the low moves along the channel and drags in the cold air!!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

YUK!!!!!!

ECM1-240.GIF?21-0

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Aceman Apprentice

Aceman

Posted
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frosty / Warm but not hot with a steady breeze
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
Posted

Light snow here!

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

One thing I am confused about in regards to the forecast. There are signs of rain around my location tomorrow morning going by the graphic, but there are overnight lows of -3 being forecast??? Maybe because they don't want to commit to anything?

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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted

I am in work just got back to computer so I am guessing Ian hasn't filled us with joy?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

We're all very quiet after Ian's forecast aren't we. :(

I guess all we can do is radar watch and look out of the window.

That's exactly it. Ian stressed himself the great deal of uncertainty and that watching the radar for the most accurate outcome tomorrow is best.

It's all down to nowcasting for the next 24 hours now. Exmoor, Dartmoor and the Mendips do look the best bet for something though.

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jtay Veteran

jtay

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
Posted

oh I dunno i thought her forecast was a little more progressive for south central.. At least she tried to explain and said there was uncertainty but there could be 2 to 5cm outside of the south west. I think she did a good job.

Yeah Karlos. Leave Alexis alone you big bully. blum.gif

Look it's going to be a nowcast and they can't just stand there and shrug their shoulders.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Yeah Karlos. Leave Alexis alone you big bully. blum.gif

Look it's going to be a nowcast and they can't just stand there and shrug their shoulders.

oops.gif

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

YUK!!!!!!

ECM1-240.GIF?21-0

Not really bothered about that chart, I've had lying snow here for a few days, possibly see some more tomorrow so I'm not worried about things turning milder by the weekend after all it can't stay cold all winter.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Not really bothered about that chart, I've had lying snow here for a few days, possibly see some more tomorrow so I'm not worried about things turning milder by the weekend after all it can't stay cold all winter.

Just saying what I see, glad you have had laying snow for a few days, some have not!!!

Edited by karlos1983
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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Just saying what I see, glad you have had laying snow for a few days, some have not!!!

Well that's the way it goes unfortunately in this country, very rare to see country wide snow cover although 2010 came close.

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Yep, wintry mix expected

http://www.metoffice..._medium=twitter

I was just about to post that! :p

For anyone who missed it, or if anyone wants a cry, here's Ian's forecast!

http://m.facebook.com/pointswest?id=102814153147070&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpointswest&_rdr

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

Quite an immense forecast by David Braine on Spotlight for Cornwall and Devon tommorrow afternoon snow down to low levels as the low moves along the channel and drags in the cold air!!

Yep that was one interesting forecast! Hint of caution though, this morning the local weather forecasted rain sleet and snow on the south coast when in the end it was a dry day. There is hope! Dartmoor gets plastered!! The hunt is on againrofl.gif

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted (edited)

That's exactly it. Ian stressed himself the great deal of uncertainty and that watching the radar for the most accurate outcome tomorrow is best.

It's all down to nowcasting for the next 24 hours now. Exmoor, Dartmoor and the Mendips do look the best bet for something though.

Err don't forget the Cotswolds !! Seriously though I think South Wales is in the best position , he seemed to think it will spread northeast during the day, will be interesting to watch it develop . To mention the poss of 10cm or more over high ground , they must be confident of the intensity.

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted

Being the age I am, i'd say what we've seen the last week is pretty typical event in a typically average winter in my lifetime.

Bar Friday, which was a good fall, i saw no snow before this winter.

In an average winter i'd expect many more snow days. Let's hope February delivers.

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