WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[cooling climate]

I dont think Steve has ever got over the Great December let down and I dont blame him really it was a disaster,

Despite the snow of the past two weeks the cold spell in terms of synoptics and coldness were very modest and the UK was lucky in having short waves move across at exactly the right latitude, things could easily have turned out far less interesting.

This Winter feels like one of wasted opportunity with the big SSW that had only modest effects (if any) in Western Europe and the very annoying habbit of the Greenland High bugging us all summer then going walkabout in Winter, while the Azores High does the reverse

As for the trend over the next 10 days yes its colder but nothing really exciting and that ticking sound is getting louder,,,,tick,tock.....

Andy

The true extent of the SSW is still to be felt in the troposphere. It is this plus other factors which will usher in

a much colder pattern again in10 to 15 days time.

Really enjoyed the 12 days of snow laying and cold sometimes very cold weather we have just experienced with

max of 12cm laying snow.

[TEITS]

Entertaining reading some of the posts this evening.

Following the models beyond +192 has always required some forecasting instinct because we all know the models are incapable of being correct all the time due to various factors. So in effect what you need to do is become an ensemble and figure it out yourself. Sometimes depending on the pattern this is difficult to do but other times its relatively easy. Now in my opinion the period between +192 to +384 is one of those occasions where it is relatively easy to predict the likely outlook, this is why im surprised at some of the posts. The common trend in the output has been for a trough to develop across S Europe and at the same time NW,lys outbreaks developing across the UK. At the same time we see a weakening of the PV to the W of Greenland. The likely pattern to develop around the 10th onwards is to become progressively colder with these NW,lys eventually veering N and finally NE,ly.

I suspect the reason why some are disappointed is this pattern isn't ideal for locations such as the SE!

[Panayiotis]

It would be nice if that low to the north can drop S/SE! Nice NW incursion though!

[Panayiotis]

Possibly an amazing ending to the 18z? The heights are only going one way and thats north towards Greenland..

Edited January 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Panayiotis]

The 10th springs to mind! (look at my signature lol)

[TEITS]

This chart is another good example of what I also want to say.

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-288.png?18

When you post on the model output if you think the output is poor then you must specify if you're referring to your own location. For example the chart above isn't especially good for my location with regards to snowfall but I bet members in the NW are happy!

Even better for more of us later.

Edited January 28, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Ice Day]

Yep, all FI but the trend is still showing for around the 10th Feb

[Mair Snaw]

The 10th springs to mind! (look at my signature lol)

BANK THIS CHART PLEASE, my birthday the next day and that would be the best prezzie ive had since feb 1991.

[J10]

I would happily bank the GFS 18hz run, a very potent looking NNW flow, very good for us down here.

At T+300, only 50 runs between now and then, what could possibly go wrong.

[TEITS]

I would happily bank the GFS 18hz run, a very potent looking NNW flow, very good for us down here.

At T+300, only 50 runs between now and then, what could possibly go wrong.

A NE,ly.

Interesting that despite the differences in the modelling in the earlier timeframes the outcome is pretty much the same. A good omen in my experience.

[pages]

If you think gfs fi is good, look at what the CMA has done by the 6th, anyone for a 1060 Greenland high and raging northerly?

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Slowly, slowly - for the last few days the charts are getting slightly more wintry with each set...........ECM is better tonight than last night, same with GFS and the GEFS ensembles and even in the shorter range UKMO / FAX.

That's good enough for me.

I will leave you with this lovely chart - heres hoping for further upgrades tomorrow

EWS

[Jason H]

If you think gfs fi is good, look at what the CMA has done by the 6th, anyone for a 1060 Greenland high and raging northerly?

Any chance of a quick link/chart. Many thanks. The FI parts of GFS looks like December 2010.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Jason H

[TEITS]

Any chance of a quick link/chart. Many thanks.

Tasty.

[ScottSnow]

Yes the 18z goes with what a few poster's on here are predicting, a couple of colder shots before a more sustained outbreak from the north.

The signs are encouraging and the 18z shows that when the energy coming off the eastern seaboard dies down heights can build to our north west. The Arctic is nearly at it's coldest in early Feb so any northerly should provide plenty of punch. For my location some of the best snowfalls I've seen have came drom northerly winds such as 26th Feb 2004.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

If you think gfs fi is good, look at what the CMA has done by the 6th, anyone for a 1060 Greenland high and raging northerly?

Yes looks nice and in a nearer timeframe than GFS

[Isolated Frost]

GFS 18z and CMA = real Arctic blast. First NNW, then N and then the cold pool advects slowly westward... huge ridge building with a 1060mb high o/ Greenland shown in later frames.

Hell of a late output. For those in Scotland and much of Northern England/Northern Ireland, the best of the winter. Nothing beats arctic northerlies (and nor'westerlies/nor'easterlies).

[Timmytour]

Chartviewer (where are you) might be best placed to answer this, but i actually thing CMA was one of the best performing models of the last cold spell so that chart really is good to see

[damianslaw]

Sticking to reliable timeframe, all models in agreement of a nw blast on friday and sat with the return of night frosts and possible wintry showers,fax chart showing sub 528 dam line moving down the country on friday, always Good to see in my opinion. So this milder period is now looking v short lived, indeed for thé north only romperle will bring mild conditions, today Many struggled to get above 6 degrees hardly mild. Longer term, growing signals for a proper arctic blast and v likely a sustained one, and for thé first time this winter we will be looking between the nw and ne for out weather, from an imby perspective, much better than looking between ne and se.

[bluearmy]

Not sure why the chinese model is being given such prominence. Thats a bad sign if you cant find anything decent in gfs/ecm/naefs/cpc to post!

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

Judging by the cold, lack of mean wind and small upticks in precip, i'd say that ecm ens deep fi favours a cold trough across us.

[sundog]

I would love a good Arctic blast from the north especially since we havent had one for quite some time. Certainly more of a brighter cold spell compared to the last one IF it were to happen.

[Cheshire Freeze]

All I'll say is

We're getting there

Edited January 28, 2013 by CreweCold

[Weathizard]

Don't know why people go on about what's good for where ect before the previous cold spell everyone said the SE was favoured however the biggest falls were still in Northern England and Wales so just shows you really looking at how much its going to 'deliver' before we even have the cold in is a bit silly and I've been stung by doing this before so I've learnt to take IMBY'ism out of stuff my thinking and posts on here as once the cold air is in place as long as we don't have HP dominant over us then troughs/showers/fronts normally start to appear.

[chris55]

London ensembles, a more sustained cooling trend still very evident from the 8th onwards, after the colder blip around the 2/3rd.

[chris55]

Not sure why the chinese model is being given such prominence. Thats a bad sign if you cant find anything decent in gfs/ecm/naefs/cpc to post!

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

Judging by the cold, lack of mean wind and small upticks in precip, i'd say that ecm ens deep fi favours a cold trough across us.

Yep, plain to see on the Deblit ens to,