WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I am very happy with progress, and I am very happy to maintain Feb being the coldest month by a long shot...in this descending winter. Interesting to see ECM bring that nasty feature for Friday again. One to watch.

BFTP

All I'll say is

We're getting there

I'm very happy with how we progress

BFTP

[rotation]

All I'll say is

We're getting there

[rotation]

Yes, and no cold spell is easily achieved in this country so I certainly like what I see especially in a slow progression in ens and wider anomaly output over last couple days.

I would also like to say for those over 30 I still judge winter standards on what I've seen in the past not just by the last several years which have obviously blurred some expectations. Most people before 08/09 would be fairly positive with trends over last few days. I guess it's all about expectations. Sorry if off topic.

[rotation]

Yes, and no cold spell is easily achieved in this country so I certainly like what I see especially in a slow progression in ens and wider anomaly output over last couple days.

I would also like to say for those over 30 I still judge winter standards on what I've seen in the past not just by the last several years which have obviously blurred some expectations. Most people before 08/09 would be fairly positive with trends over last few days. I guess it's all about expectations. Having read this thread today the commentary on here can be as bipolar as the weather itself sometimes. Sorry if off topic.

[pages]

Not sure why the chinese model is being given such prominence. Thats a bad sign if you cant find anything decent in gfs/ecm/naefs/cpc to post!

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

Judging by the cold, lack of mean wind and small upticks in precip, i'd say that ecm ens deep fi favours a cold trough across us.

5 out of 20 gefs members go with the CMA at t192.

[SE Blizzards]

Check out the uppers throughout the whole of the latest CFS run! ...Shame it all goes pear shaped around 960h!

http://www.meteociel...&carte=0&run=10

Edited January 29, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Gael_Force]

Not sure why the chinese model is being given such prominence. Thats a bad sign if you cant find anything decent in gfs/ecm/naefs/cpc to post!

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

Judging by the cold, lack of mean wind and small upticks in precip, i'd say that ecm ens deep fi favours a cold trough across us.

That is exactly what the CMA ensemble mean shows for the period.

[pages]

Check out the uppers throughout the whole of the latest CFS run! ...Shame it all goes pear shaped around 960h!

http://www.meteociel...&carte=0&run=10

A bit disappointing around t700 them -18 uppers don't quite make it and we have only have -16 in the south east the rest of country under -14 uppers . Lol lol lol

[Harve]

In addition to this weekend's northerly toppler (of sorts), the 0z has brought in the idea of a rather chilly north-westerly in the semi-reliable timeframe - in a week's time.

-5c uppers cover the entirety of the British Isles with -8c uppers covering much of Scotland despite a very close Azores High. I don't think I've seen such a setup before and it could be very good for north-western areas; drier and merely chilly further south and east.

The 18z's FI northerly has mostly disappeared and instead we are left with a settled pattern with cold on the continent and average across the UK:

[summer blizzard]

In addition to this weekend's northerly toppler (of sorts), the 0z has brought in the idea of a rather chilly north-westerly in the semi-reliable timeframe - in a week's time.

-5c uppers cover the entirety of the British Isles with -8c uppers covering much of Scotland despite a very close Azores High. I don't think I've seen such a setup before and it could be very good for north-western areas; drier and merely chilly further south and east.

The 18z's FI northerly has mostly disappeared and instead we are left with a settled pattern with cold on the continent and average across the UK:

It was a setup that was pretty dominant from Nov 04 to mid Feb 05 (evolved into an easterly), the high just kind of sat to the south west occasionally ridging north.

Personally i wouldn't expect anything more than frost from it, pressure is fairly high and the northerly component will promote the wishbone effect.

Also of note is that it does reach 1045mb so its pretty strong.

[Jason M]

ECM rolling out still, but not great this morning overall so far.

The AZH is completely dominant this morning and although ensembles are okay, they are not as good as yesterday's.

One thing that can happen with this set up is that you can get fantastic ensemble suites, but over time the good runs start to reduce. Yesterday I just started to think we were in with a shout, but the AZH looks like its not going to relent. Could be a cold Feb in Greece this year :-)

Let's see where we end up but I get the sense that anything decent is staying out beyond 10 days and that's rarely a good sign.

Jason

[Weather-history]

ECM 0z 96hr chart is a bit of an eye opener.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

[Beaufort12]

Jason u put a downer on my day waaa

[winterof79]

ECM 240 ....Nice http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Ensembles not too shabby either http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[legritter]

I dont usually post this early as grey matter not usually working till later but ,ECM looking fairly good with some interesting shots about .it looks a fair bet at the moment for high pressure in atlantic becoming positioned in our favour .iv a feeling that over next 2 days we could see all modells singing in tune ,certainly nothing boring . and perhaps something for a few lucky ones this weekend ,im off for a coffee cheers

[Duane S.]

00z suite looks good enough to me. Slowly edging towards a cold spell, ECM comes up with an Friday/Saturday scenario...

[Craigers]

ECM 240 ....Nice http://www.meteociel...map=1&archive=0

Ensembles not too shabby either http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

And once that big block goes to greenland the cold 850 temps roll back into the uk!

[mountain shadow]

If a run of brief topplers rocks your boat then 0z ops runs are good.

If your looking for 7 day snowy/frosty spell then not good.

Usual problem of PV portion around Greenland. Still some GEFS offering something more prolonged.

[Summer Sun]

Still big differences at t96 from the big 3 this morning once more ECM is the only one which brings that deep low

[bluearmy]

I like the ecm run - at least it shows some consistency!

[Jason M]

If a run of brief topplers rocks your boat then 0z ops runs are good.

If your looking for 7 day snowy/frosty spell then not good.

Usual problem of PV portion around Greenland. Still some GEFS offering something more prolonged.

Yes, sums it up really. There is some background signal that is being missed this year as even now its proving difficult to get a decent HLB. Had we not had the recent cold spell courtesy of the SSW, this winter could have been a real shocker.

Anyway, don't like the runs, not a problem as a shiny new set will be along later :-)

Jason

[IDO]

And once that big block goes to greenland the cold 850 temps roll back into the uk!

I am not sure that block:

Is going anywhere near Greenland whilst the PV piece continues to reside to the west of Greenland. That looks like another toppler to me.

The GEFS mean: This looks like standard average Feb fare. Not a SSW inducing cold/wintry spell.

That takes us to mid Feb and no sign of even an ember of a prolonged wintry spell down south. We will need sub zero days to keep any snow/cold in those last two weeks of Winter. The T384 chart still has the PV in the wrong place:

Not as strong but enough to allow the AH to be the main block rather than a GH.

The models continue to fly in the face of all the background signals mentioned by the more experienced posters so there is still hope of a flip to very cold output rather than what the models are indicating, just a return to ordinary winter conditions.

[Summer Sun]

Wintry showers for some on Saturday

[Average Joe]

As a complete and utter newbie to the incredibly interesting and informative boards, especially with regards to the job I'm in where weather conditions etc are very influencial, can I ask if when looking ahead into the models is there an indication that any dry and dare I say settled weather might be on the horizon?

I've gathered a huge amount of folks on here love the snow, which is understandable I guess, but being from a farming background I'm/we're desperate for some dry weather in the SE of England, let alone my family down in the South West.

[Methuselah]

As a complete and utter newbie to the incredibly interesting and informative boards, especially with regards to the job I'm in where weather conditions etc are very influencial, can I ask if when looking ahead into the models is there an indication that any dry and dare I say settled weather might be on the horizon?

I've gathered a huge amount of folks on here love the snow, which is understandable I guess, but being from a farming background I'm/we're desperate for some dry weather in the SE of England, let alone my family down in the South West.

Welcome aboard, Duncan. can you please pop you location into your profile?