The Midlands Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08z ------->

[mackerel sky]

I think when the GFS is at odds with the other models and goes into default raging Atlantic mode someone needs to press the on-off button.

Within regards Gimmesomesnow's post above, I agree that from the third week of February, the prospect of long lived snow on the ground eases significantly. You can get good dumps, but the minute the sun comes out for any length of time, even if the temperature in the shade is freezing - poof - and its gone.

[mackerel sky]

Can someone explain why, on the Will it Snow feature, does it say that Brum has a 70% chance of snow on Friday but Nuneaton and Coventry are both showing 0%?

Take those odds down to Betfred. Or wait for the next run, where it might be 0% for both localities or 60% for both, or you wait until 24 hours to go, and Betfred will give you 2-1 or 7-5.

This is hypothetical, and other betting shops are available.

Edited February 5, 2013 by mackerel sky

[I remember Atlantic 252]

May be a bit of snow tomorrow evening, front seems to move into cold air

looks like normal service resumed, dry saturday and wet sunday, so predictable that, mild as well at 7C

[Ryan05]

Still a good chance us in the East Midlands could see snow Sunday in my opinion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

noticed as well, homegrown convection, shows how strong the sun is in Feb

[Staffordshire]

Nae not making much of tommorow at all.

[conor123]

Does seem a rather odd one, 850hPa temps stay at/below -5 throughout yet it seems a rain fest, still wouldn't surprise if we get a few snow showers tommorow morning through the cheshire gap ahead of it though, wind direction seems favourable although the charts don't support this.

Sunday looking rather odd to, such mild surface temperature's with a cold flow not far away, temperatures seem more indicative of if this cold spell was happening in a month's time??

After a washout day it does get there in the end though showing rain turning to snow Sunday Night, I suspect the 06z was more accurate though.

Edited February 6, 2013 by conor123

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'd expect at least some snow to fall tomorrow...

[BlueHedgehog074]

With the uppers and thickness levels looking supportive enough for snow tomorrow, I do feel some models and forecasts, such as the GFS, are slightly under-estimating how easily our snow shields are likely to break.

[syed2878]

i dont give much credit to that netweather's will it snow feature so many times it hat brum down for snow and it didn't happen, ither it raind or it stayed dry.

[PolarWarsaw]

Poorish 12Z in the short term. Looks like a continuation of chilly conditions to continue with a mix of rain, sleet and snow between now and Tuesday. Accumulations likely to be minimal.

[cyclonic happiness]

Poorish 12Z in the short term. Looks like a continuation of chilly conditions to continue with a mix of rain, sleet and snow between now and Tuesday. Accumulations likely to be minimal.

Roll on spring ay? we've had winter seemingly for over 2 years now lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Expecting a wet day tomorrow, cheshire Gap morning, then frontal rain later, bbc pressure charts look okay for sunday, looks dry as front moved well to the east

but feel thats wrong, rain will be timed for the day sunday, not Saturday night

[shaky]

Ive just looked at the nae and there is actually a chance of patchy snow across nearly the whole of the midlands over the next 48 hours!! Not sure why nae is showing it as rain though because everything looks perfect for frozen precipitation!!

[NoSnowJo]

Roll on spring ay? we've had winter seemingly for over 2 years now lol

well with Gavin displaying his usual array of high pressure charts for next week spring and summer is on its way so I'm going to dig out my shorts and pack away the winter clobber lol

[Gord]

Oh dear. Going by the BBC online forecast, not much to look forward over the next few days. MO forecast better but hardly brilliant.

Ah well, the Black Country doesn't deserve any snow after how lucky we got last month. Getting a forecast like that isn't that troublesome when we've already some decent winter weather this year. A couple of sharp frosts and bright crisp days wouldn't go amiss though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Oh dear. Going by the BBC online forecast, not much to look forward over the next few days. MO forecast better but hardly brilliant.

Ah well, the Black Country doesn't deserve any snow after how lucky we got last month. Getting a forecast like that isn't that troublesome when we've already some decent winter weather this year. A couple of sharp frosts and bright crisp days wouldn't go amiss though.

typical modern February coming up then, unreal how Feb is so much milder than it was in the 90's

[Staffordshire]

18z is a snowfest for sunday!!

Edited February 6, 2013 by Staffordshire

[Essan]

typical modern February coming up then, unreal how Feb is so much milder than it was in the 90's

There's certainly been a trend towards warmer Febs

81-10 Feb averages for the Midlands are 7.0c and 0.8c

61-90 Feb averages for the Midlands are 6.0c and 0,3c

This coincides with evidence spring is starting earlier

However Jans have likewise seen a warming trend. The increase in Dec temp has been less, that it too is warmer.

[Shezale coventry]

18z is a snowfest for sunday!!

What is it showing?

[chris55]

GFS has the front on Sunday all starting as rain (thanks to the annoying warm push of uppers thats been evident on most runs today) however as the Low sinks and undercuts the cold is wrapped back around and the snowrisk increases, GFS still has the front active as this happens.

EDIT, opps wrong thread, oh well we are close enough neighbours lol.

Edited February 6, 2013 by chris55

[Wadey]

Sunday evening/night into Monday could be nice another westwards shift then think it would start as sleet instead of rain ? And hopefully another slider on Wednesday for a top up

[Staffordshire]

Sunday evening/night into Monday could be nice another westwards shift then think it would start as sleet instead of rain ? And hopefully another slider on Wednesday for a top up

yes you are right, however 6z has sundays front being pushed back over us on momday evening into tuesday,but wednesday/thursdays front is at the wrong angle to give us snow but that is +168

[Shezale coventry]

We should have the heavy ppn over us on sunday into monday now just one small question snow or rain?

[conor123]

Looks like the charts were right all along, showers arrived here as rain despite uppers of -5/-6 at the mo.

Sunday/Monday's event now looking rubbish to :lol: oh February what a useless winter month you are these days.