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The Midlands Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08z ------->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Wadey Explorer

Wadey

Posted
  • Location: Springhill, Wolverhampton
  • Location: Springhill, Wolverhampton
Posted (edited)

Well as things look at the moment (just been on the mod thread) things looking great for us midlanders on Sunday night through till probably Monday night fingers crossed, and ppn looks more intensified than of January so v.interesting at the moment

Oh and hopefully as the low comes through it can bring heavy snow showers afterwards off the Irish sea

Edited by Wadey
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Shezale coventry Enthusiast

Shezale coventry

Posted
  • Location: coventry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: coventry
Posted

Well as things look at the moment (just been on the mod thread) things looking great for us midlanders on Sunday night through till probably Monday night fingers crossed, and ppn looks more intensified than of January so v.interesting at the moment

But the beeb and met office just showing a few hours of sleet here in coventry sunday into monday and dry after ?

Oh and hopefully as the low comes through it can bring heavy snow showers afterwards off the Irish sea

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Bolton67 Enthusiast

Bolton67

Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
Posted

Well my Met O app has just updated to a all day snow event for Monday. Sunday is looking at rain turning to sleet. gotta feeling that Sunday will change.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Won't happen. Why ? Well, because whatever the models say, when it comes down to it, any even that looks really good for us inevitabley isn't.

Sorry just how it is blum.gif any mega event turns out to either miss us (mainly east midlands) or is rain...

The only events that come off are moderate snowfalls 3 to 10cm that hold solid in the models and have an amber warning put out by MetO.

Just my opinion biggrin.png

Will happen for you, East midlands will get pasted, low level west midlands none event

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Bolton67 Enthusiast

Bolton67

Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
Posted

Will happen for you, East midlands will get pasted, low level west midlands none event

West Mids none event? Where you getting that from mate?
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

West Mids none event? Where you getting that from mate?

Just seems like a 14th Jan 2013 event, cold air seems to be missing in the west?

maybe as well time for a split in midlands threads?

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Bolton67 Enthusiast

Bolton67

Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
Posted

Just seems like a 14th Jan 2013 event, cold air seems to be missing in the west?

maybe as well time for a split in midlands threads?

Monday looks like all parts if the Mids would get a pasting. The GFS precip charts had us all in a sweet spot.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Monday looks like all parts if the Mids would get a pasting. The GFS precip charts had us all in a sweet spot.

Warm front on saturday removes cold uppers, cold air is tucking in behind over eastern UK, high levels in the west could see brief back edge snow before clearing away

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Poor ECM so far. Birmingham South looks rainy and marginal. Not shaping up to be a good run, infact the opposite.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Poor ECM so far. Birmingham South looks rainy and marginal. Not shaping up to be a good run, infact the opposite.

obvious, back to post 140, non event for W midlands, just hope I stay dry Sunday, FAX chart seems to have front over cornwall, so maybe dry until evening

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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted

what i don't understand is y the met putting out yellow alert for w.midlands for snow for sun-mun or do they put out those willy nilly.

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Please don't get your hopes up, when it comes to midlands snow anything more than 12 hours is FI. Heck, even the very last run before marginal events is often wrong (rain instead of snow).

For anyone to be getting there hopes up for Monday based on the models is just setting yourself up for what is almost inevitabley dissapointment.

If there is PPN around on Monday it will be snow.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Ian mentioning the S word, maybe we are in with a chance, but i am downplaying this event, when it starts as rain, it stays as rain, only exception 18th Nov 04

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Essan Community Regular

Essan

Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
Posted (edited)

what i don't understand is y the met putting out yellow alert for w.midlands for snow for sun-mun or do they put out those willy nilly.

At the moment no-one including the Met Office knows where will see snow. However there is a strong likelihoodthat some places within the current 'blanket' warning area will experience disruptive snow. The early warning is exactly what it says on the box: an early warning. It enables those who may need to travel on Sun/Mon to know that there is a possibility their journeys may be disrupted. Better forewarned, than taken unawares. Nearer the time the area of coverage will change.

Always remembering as well that if there is a warning for a given area it does not mean that every single place within that area will be affected. Not even the MetO are able to do warnings specific to postcodes. Yet biggrin.png

Edited by Essan
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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Ian mentioning the S word, maybe we are in with a chance, but i am downplaying this event, when it starts as rain, it stays as rain, only exception 18th Nov 04

Mark, how many times have these synoptics cropped up in the last 25 years ? Very rarely because we are so use to seeing the Atlantic plough through, but in those eighties years there were many similar events :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860108.gif - Just one example

We will see what the NAE makes of matters as this comes within T48, but much of it could come down to nowcasting on the day.

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

what i don't understand is y the met putting out yellow alert for w.midlands for snow for sun-mun or do they put out those willy nilly.

The warning area is so vast because they don't know where or what the PPN will be !

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

If there is PPN around on Monday it will be snow.

Well then the precipitation will not reach us, or a conveniently placed gap in the precipitation will be right inline with this area.

Call me a pessimist, but considering the most snow I've seen in Leicester in the past 10 or 15 years is the 10cm that we got a few weeks back, I tend to be extremely cautious over these events that have the potential to give a real good dumping of snow.

I'm not going to pretend I know half as much about weather as a lot of people like yourself on here. All I am going on is past experience. These events that could give a good 10 to 20cm covering show up year after year, and every time they fall flat for this area.

I'd love it to come off, I really would. But i'll try and not get too excited until I can see the snow 50 miles away on the radar :)

Edited by kmanmx
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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

At the moment no-one including the Met Office knows where will see snow. However there is a strong likelihoodthat some places within the current 'blanket' warning area will experience disruptive snow. The early warning is exactly what it says on the box: an early warning. It enables those who may need to travel on Sun/Mon to know that there is a possibility their journeys may be disrupted. Better forewarned, than taken unawares. Nearer the time the area of coverage will change.

Always remembering as well that if there is a warning for a given area it does not mean that every single place within that area will be affected. Not even the MetO are able to do warnings specific to postcodes. Yet biggrin.png

Ha Ha, and never will be able to do either!!!rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

Lol game over then for snow on sunday/monday bar the far north of our region looks cold and very wet over the weekend

I wouldn't discount Sunday. GFS isn't really going for it, but UKMO still has temps as between 0 and 1c for our areas, with -4c 850 uppers. UKMO precipitation output looks like it could give us a good 10 to 15cm if it fell as snow.

Infact wow, UKMO and GFS are totally different at 60hours.

post-14283-0-11740800-1360313263_thumb.g

post-14283-0-49638500-1360313273_thumb.g

Edited by kmanmx
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Potent Gust Apprentice

Potent Gust

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, fog and ice!
  • Location: Tamworth
Posted

Lol game over then for snow on sunday/monday bar the far north of our region looks cold and very wet over the weekend

No way is it game over yet. Still over 48hrs until the event. Plenty of ups and downs to come yet. It may come down to radar watching on the day :)

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