scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08 -------->

[Allyw12]

Wow.... Winds have really picked up here in Dundee... Is that the Cold Northely front passing over ?

The temp has also started to drop in the past hour now down to 2.6/-0.7

[blitzen]

If temps/dews drop quickly enough, you guys up north and east could have quite an interesting night ahead I think going by the radar?

Lots of showers packing in. Not so good here in a northerly tho' as they just slam into the mountains and break up.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

Edited February 5, 2013 by Blitzen

[GoldenJackel]

Sadly all that has fallen has been rain and its been lashing against the windows at times.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, my summary for the coming 24 hours:

!: area worst affected, 5-10cm of snow quite widely, persistent through the day, with a risk of some sleet or non lying snow nearer the coast through the day perhaps keeping accumulations from getting quite so bad. Cairngorms are looking at probably another 15-20cm, 6-8 inches, with pretty rough hill conditions.

2: Pretty marginal at times, transient accumulations certainly and with a bit of elevation similar to ! but often fairly sleety conditions.

3. The northernmost band of this is the classic shadow zone, where some showers may make it through if some hefty showers form but otherwise mostly dry. Potential for up to an inch if you're lucky although probably more likely the further north you are. The southernmost area could see similar totals with some frontal stuff hanging around until morning turning increasingly to snow, and then some more showers hitting the eastern Borders through the day.

4. Western shadow zone, likely to do better than the eastern one earlier on but by evening things will start to dry up a bit from the west here. Possibility of say 2-3 inches, though decreasing the further southwest you go, and much further south you're very unlikely to see anything at all.

In the middle, largely dry and cold, with some fair weather cloud and maybe the odd flurry but basically a nice day.

5 (cheers BUS!) Snow looks a good shout here, easing off later but again potential for good totals inland, upwards of 6-8 inches again for the big mountains, pretty marginal at the coasts, though not quite a lost cause, certainly a decent chance of waking up to a covering even if not managing to keep it through the day.

Edited February 6, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Buriedundersnow]

Ok, my summary for the coming 24 hours:

!: area worst affected, 5-10cm of snow quite widely, persistent through the day, with a risk of some sleet or non lying snow nearer the coast through the day perhaps keeping accumulations from getting quite so bad. Cairngorms are looking at probably another 15-20cm, 6-8 inches, with pretty rough hill conditions.

2: Pretty marginal at times, transient accumulations certainly and with a bit of elevation similar to ! but often fairly sleety conditions.

3. The northernmost band of this is the classic shadow zone, where some showers may make it through if some hefty showers form but otherwise mostly dry. Potential for up to an inch if you're lucky although probably more likely the further north you are. The southernmost area could see similar totals with some frontal stuff hanging around until morning turning increasingly to snow, and then some more showers hitting the eastern Borders through the day.

4. Western shadow zone, likely to do better than the eastern one earlier on but by evening things will start to dry up a bit from the west here. Possibility of say 2-3 inches, though decreasing the further southwest you go, and much further south you're very unlikely to see anything at all.

In the middle, largely dry and cold, with some fair weather cloud and maybe the odd flurry but basically a nice day.

wheres 5 lol

[LomondSnowstorm]

wheres 5 lol

Corrected now

[Buriedundersnow]

Corrected now

your allowed to make some errors u have studying and all that to do aswell

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thought it was worth reposting in here as it signals another snowfall opportunity into the weekend aside from the easterly that is quite likely to follow:

Not really sure where all this misguided 'GFS is rubbish' twaddle emerged on here (we're discussing computer models, not football teams)... but to return to the focal point of Sunday, which we anticipate could deliver a significant snow event:

At stake here are some marked differences in the rate of E'ward frontal progression into the UK between the 12z UKMO-GM and other operational centre output, notably ECMWF. These appear correlated to the rapidity and scope at which the amplifying upper ridge over the country on Saturday cuts-off. For example, the 12z ECMWF deterministic is markedly slower with this process compared to UKMO-GM, with net result of retarding the frontal progression to a greater extent. This slower solution is favoured by Exeter, who have modified the GM accordingly (away from raw version you'll see on websites).

Clearly this has profound implications in what will prove a high-stakes forecast, should current evolution continue in similar tone. Bear in mind the frontal zone in question is only just now taking shape off E coast of N America... still a way to go on this story.

However, the slower EC (and presently modified GM) solution offers less threat of disruptive snow into London during Sunday, as opposed to raw GM, which did. Hence, this sort of issue - high stakes, as I suggest - remains a clear uncertainty.

The consensus solution follows EC's snow accumulation prognosis (sorry I'm not allowed to share that as actual mapping), which - with frontal leading edge moving into sub-300m WBFL air across much of S England & Midlands/Wales - looks a decidedly bothersome blend. EC offers as much as 10-15cm snow anywhere from approx central Somerset up through Bristol, eastwards to around Reading and north through pretty much all of Wales and West Mids (some peak totals in these areas excess of 20cm). To the SE, similar amounts (to around 10cm) across Wilts, Hants, to W Sussex. Clearly, distribution is uncertain but in broad terms, the combined weight of EPS and deterministic output is indicative of parts of W/S Scotland, eastern Northern Ireland, N England, Wales, West Country north of Taunton, West Midlands and southern-central England being most at risk of disruptive snowfall durIng Sunday and overnight into early Monday. Currently, Exeter suggest 30% chance of some snow into London itself later on Sunday, albeIt any ccumulations here in the capital are thought likely to be pretty small.

Anyway, that's some detailed thoughts for now, ahead of whatever the 00z runs might yield.

Courtesy of a special agreement with UKMO to show select bits of modified output where it helps illustrate and explain their scientific rationale, I can show you just two frames from modified 12z GM, which you can then compare with the raw output. The snowy PPN signal (as x's) needs no further explanation, albeit the very obvious uncertainties at this range need re-stressing.

The map's on this page of the thread:

http://forum.netweat...s/page__st__100

Looks good for a good number of places...

Edited February 6, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[howham]

Snow and graupel showers this morning.

[Highland Snow]

Total snow clearance here. Temp. +2.2C and this is last night's minimum value.

[Northernlights]

Well done to Snooz who said we would be in the firing line today and LomondSnowstorms forecast map which shows us in number one spot for accumulating snow..

We have just had a very heavy snow shower while I was feeding the cattle which has whitened the place again in just 15 minutes. Currently 1c with a stong north wind

Edited February 6, 2013 by Northernlights

[Northernlights]

Well done to Snooz who said we would be in the firing line today and LomondSnowstorms forecast map which shows us in number one spot for accumulating snow..

We have just had a very heavy snow shower while I was feeding the cattle which has whitened the place again in just 15 minutes. Currently 1c with a stong north wind

Now a very stormy snow laden sky across the Firth to the north.Temperature down to 0.4c Just to add ground is brimming over with water after yesterdays melted snow can"t even get cows to neeps. Wonder if it will ever dry up but it usually does.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Northernlights

[Snooz]

Yay NL,baltic tho' isn't it!... and thanks for wonderful summary again LSS

Strangely the only local place with "accumulation" further East is the A96 - Tyrebagger, visible on trafficscotland cam and I hoped hoped that even with the wetness to be overcome that we would have more of accumulation when I woke up this morning but nothing/nada.. until about half an hour ago when we've now had a couple showers (and darkening down for another?) graupelly to start then big flakes, accumulating immediately

Temp 1.8/ 0 DP , windchill -4 ...

[Ravelin]

Very heavy 15min shower of graupel & snow just as I was taking the youngest to school this morning. It left the place looking white but, as is the norm with showers, cover varied from white to wet at various points between Kemnay & Dyce. Car park at work currently has a dusting and it's windy with clouds rolling over. I suspect it'll be a day of short wintry showers, with most of the snow that falls melting during the sunnier intervals.

[tempestwatch]

The usual mahem in the MT this morning. Its a grand crisp day in Alloa this morning up to 2c already, should think we will be up near 3-4c by 3pm today. Really looking forward to the weekend and beyond, will we get snow, wont we, easterly or not? Its all good stuff and its all weather!

[blitzen]

Morning! Anyone got a scooby on what the weather is going to do this weekend? I for one can't get any idea because they are all greetin' in their cornflakes this morning on the MT! At the moment it's a lovely, chilly, bright day here.

[tempestwatch]

Morning! Anyone got a scooby on what the weather is going to do this weekend? I for one can't get any idea because they are all greetin' in their cornflakes this morning on the MT! At the moment it's a lovely, chilly, bright day here.

They are! I for one will just stick my head ooot the window and see what its doing Edited February 6, 2013 by tempestwatch

[Ravelin]

Morning! Anyone got a scooby on what the weather is going to do this weekend? I for one can't get any idea because they are all greetin' in their cornflakes this morning on the MT! At the moment it's a lovely, chilly, bright day here.

Yep, I see yesterdays open warfare in the MT over which model is best is still raging, escalating even! Maybe if the Mods imposed some sort of MT post limit, say 10 posts per person per day in the MT then people might think twice and cut out all the useless posts.

Even trying to read between sniping, I can't see much of use in determining what we can expect between now, and into the weekend. Everyone seems to still be chasing a potential 'Easterly' at T120-144 (and is always at T120-144), which may bring snow, or rain, or may just never appear. Apart from that, the other main debate seems to be whether it'll still be cold in 10 days time. I'm beginning to wonder if reading the model thread isn't just a pointless waist of time.

On to the now and here....largely sunny and windy, and as I predicted previously the earlier covering of snow has now melted. The last shower that hit was rather impressive and if we could sustain that for a while I'd be getting excited. It was over all too soon though and didn't really lie. The showers are just too infrequent and short-lived to expect anything other than a bitterly cold, sunny day.

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon! Sleet overnight, nae snaw ( again! ) and absolutely baltic! I've given up on the idea of any white stuff up here this winter...except on the mountains!

[Big Rain]

Snow/hail showers in Aberdeen. Much more enjoyable than an easterly - a diurnal range, sun in between the showers and the showers are fairly wild

[Richard Taylor]

I have to say not all that impressed with the activity from this northerly. There is something modifying the showers, so that they are the dreaded 'wintry mix' (God I hate that phrase!) of everything - rain, sleet, snow, graupel, soft hail, snow grains, volcanic ash you name it!!! Presume the uppers are high, because the northerly is supposed to be whilstling in straight from the Arctic! Decidely underwhelming for me so far.

[Snooz]

Morning! Anyone got a scooby on what the weather is going to do this weekend? I for one can't get any idea because they are all greetin' in their cornflakes this morning on the MT! At the moment it's a lovely, chilly, bright day here.

it's not even funny 'in there' anymore! as Ravelin says.. even trying to read between the lines is not possible from last night to this morning for crying out loud, well apart from IF's input late last night which LSS has posted above anyway.. thanks!

I've been trying to keep an eye on this weekend as we're really really hoping we will finally get a game of football played, team moral (and most probably match fitness) is non-existent - our boys haven't played since 2nd October.. who says it's not been a cold winter! LOL

so here's the non-science, wishful thinking forecast..I think we will get football played on Saturday & Sunday

- but I'm not going to Pittodrie tonight even though I had tickets to a pre-match drinks and buffet - too caul'!

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Shorter term, I think this Thursday could well be interesting for the kilts - while the forecasters on BBC totally glossed over the front, coming from the West, on last nights report, I think they did so until they knew how much cold this northerly would bring, as they knew it to be a weaker affair.. now I'm no expert but I think that's a big chunk of cold sitting up there currently with the forecast for it to be dragged down overnight (not necessarily snow.. just cold!)

so I think Thursday evening, Friday am could be short term interesting, however then Saturday and Sunday look to be pretty nondescript, weather-wise. SW'ly's, max temps 3-4C, not mild but just not as exciting as the wind/snow/blizzards etc we become accustomed to this week

I think that the "easterly" (coming from YAS, yet another slider) that's causing much consternation in the MT is more likely to hit central belt/borders/embra than SE Fluffyshire, and even if it doesn't it will be a waste as it will be rain for them, snow for you mwahaha - but that is not going to be until very late Monday/Tuesday,

take all of the above with a pinch of salt as I don't do forecasting out loud usually, am on call and bored, and I've probably just guaranteed that the opposite of what I've written will happen hehe.. but like you am trying to figure out the weekend! and I just dinna believe thon forecaster mannies & wifies on TV

(btw for any forecasters reading, - why are you reading and not doing weather? - am just kidding, I know your life is difficult .. sheesh imagine if each of the models got their own TV Channel, and produced forecasts, where would we be )

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Still blowy, showery and sunny here, our slight covering still remains around the house but looking over the village it's gone, it's not often I see the 50m height difference as clear as this, but unless the showers pep up it will probably clear in the sun in next couple hours too

edited: sorry quoted wrong post, now fixed

Edited February 6, 2013 by Snooz

[Hawesy]

Sunny spells, 4c/-2c.

[Snooz]

PS: Ravelin, I might have an Adult n Child ticket for Scotland game this evening (not the drinks/buffet one sorry!) if you're not already going, do you want them if still available?

[Ravelin]

PS: Ravelin, I might have an Adult n Child ticket for Scotland game this evening (not the drinks/buffet one sorry!) if you're not already going, do you want them if still available?

Thanks for the offer but I'll gracefully decline it. I had considered getting tickets when they went on sale but not for long. The hassle of getting home, changed, and back into Aberdeen in time to make it to the match was just too off-putting. I don't normally get home until after 6pm due to the late, post school-run start. Now, if it'd been a competitive match, and the team had been playing well, I may have found a way. Really is a sad reflection on the teams recent performances when I can't be bothered to go to a Scotland match so close to home.

I've been trying to keep an eye on this weekend as we're really really hoping we will finally get a game of football played, team moral (and most probably match fitness) is non-existent - our boys haven't played since 2nd October.. who says it's not been a cold winter! LOL

so here's the non-science, wishful thinking forecast..I think we will get football played on Saturday & Sunday

- but I'm not going to Pittodrie tonight even though I had tickets to a pre-match drinks and buffet - too caul'!

That's pretty bad Snooz, at least our lads managed to get a game on 10th Nov plus a friendly and competitive game in Jan. Still a potentially huge backlog though, especially as we're still in 2 out of the 3 cup competitions. Mind you, last year's winter wasn't much to shout about and we still ended up playing 2 games a week, maybe even 3 one week!

Our game this week is scheduled to be played in Aberdeen (Aultons I think) so given the current forecast, and that we don't have to overcome the 'Bogbeth frost shadow', I'm going for an 80% chance of this weeks game going ahead. If it does I'll be wrapping up warm.