Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 18z ----->

[NickR]

nice one nick thanks for that, so for exmple i use meteociel when viewing the ecm run so the charts we see are those the ones they think will be correct and the ensembles are other options but are less likely to happen

I wouldn't put it like that TBH. The one we see is the operational... the others are with very slight tweaks. Some people think that having the operational and control in agreement means that is likely, but to be honest, what matters more often than not is not what the operational is showing, but where the majority are headed. If the operational is out on a limb and most of the other runs are clustered around a different solution, then I would generally speaking forget about the operational on that run.

[Summer Sun]

Certainly feels like early spring out there in the sun today

Currently sunny 12.6°C

Warmest day of the year today as well at 12.7°C

Edited February 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[Alex95]

Reached 8C here, quite pleasant in the sun.

[Boro Snow]

this asteriod in russia is quite disturbing when these now been an explosion over cuba, heads up

[Airedalejoe]

Certainly feels like early spring out there in the sun today

Currently sunny 12.6°C

Warmest day of the year today as well at 12.7°C

I know it's not your thermometer but that's way too high. 8/9C in Durham.

[Boro Snow]

Certainly feels like early spring out there in the sun today

Currently sunny 12.6°C

Warmest day of the year today as well at 12.7°C

that cant be right my standard temp gage didnt go above 9c

[Summer Sun]

that cant be right my standard temp gage didnt go above 9c

Hmm this new weather station must be wrong then http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICOUNTYD18 - the other one doesn't appear to be working

[Boro Snow]

Hmm this new weather station must be wrong then http://www.wundergro...p?ID=ICOUNTYD18 - the other one doesn't appear to be working

wasnt that the one you decided must be in the sun

[Summer Sun]

wasnt that the one you decided must be in the sun

It seemed to become more reliable after that as it was inline with others area but it must have gone wrong again

Its crashed now as well hasn't updated for 35 minutes and counting there is certainly something wrong with it

The Newton Aycliffe one is showing 7.2°C currently

Edited February 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[Boro Snow]

It seemed to become more reliable after that as it was inline with others area but it must have gone wrong again

Its crashed now as well hasn't updated for 35 minutes and counting there is certainly something wrong with it

The Newton Aycliffe one is showing 7.2°C currently

yeah i would go by that one because mines showing 7c

[Summer Sun]

yeah i would go by that one because mines showing 7c

Yeah will stick to that one for now until the darlo ones come back and look reliable

[Cloud 10]

this asteriod in russia is quite disturbing when these now been an explosion over cuba, heads up

I would say head's down.

[JP1972]

I see a few posters are already fretting over snow chances days before the cold even reached the UK!

You couldn't make it up really.

Surely the recent cold spell should have taught some people a lesson, that being once the cold is upon us then anything can happen.

As it happens I would have thought Eastern and North Eastern areas will see some snow from the latest projections surely????

[Hagler]

We've seen our fair share of snow this winter.

TBH I'm sick of the sight of it.

[Andy_]

Latest GFS runs bring what i've been looking for this Winter, some -10 uppers, i'd love to have an non marginal event before the winter is out.

We've seen our fair share of snow this winter.

TBH I'm sick of the sight of it.

It gets to a point where i'm not as excited about the possibility of it, but its still nice to see when it comes along. I'm craving a good thunderstorm so am pretty much ready to see Winter out now

[JP1972]

We have had a reasonable amount of snow this winter, I'm not going to include cold because here in Newcastle (I'm sure Alza wil back me up on this) we haven't really had a great deal of cold weather to date. For instance during the last 'cold' spell frosts were notably (for me anyway) quite elusive and if I'm honest it never really felt THAT cold until ironically the last day (last Friday) as the final front approached giving us a snowy afternoon.

So in light of the above I'll be glad of another bout of cold weather and any associated snow, because as a 40 year old who remembers only too well the countless snow-less winters we endured during the 90's and 00's I'll gladly take whatever comes our way.

And let's face it, if next winter or indeed the next two or three winters bring no snow/cold at all, we'd be harking after some of the charts currently on offer.

Edit: I'll clarify my definition of cold. Days where temperatures struggle to -2 to +1 and night time temperatures -3 or below (which we saw quite widely in Newcastle during the cold spells in the winters of 09/10 and 10/11).

Feel free to disagree with me folks ...

Edited February 15, 2013 by JP1972

[Geordiesnow]

Latest GFS looks probably the best potential to get some convective weather but with thicknesses not being particularly low(although the lower thicknesses is not too far away) then I would not imagine a full on sunshine and shower set up to develop.

Won't take much to change that but the likely hood does seem to be high pressure will be nearby and the outlook will be quiet, dry and quite benign as sunshine amounts decrease into next week.

Also in situations like these, from past experience, watch any easterly flow slowly downgrades into length and a Northerly flow into Scandi and perhaps the UK to develop, does not always happen but I've certainly seen it in the past when the models show this type of pattern.

[JP1972]

Latest GFS looks probably the best potential to get some convective weather but with thicknesses not being particularly low(although the lower thicknesses is not too far away) then I would not imagine a full on sunshine and shower set up to develop.

Won't take much to change that but the likely hood does seem to be high pressure will be nearby and the outlook will be quiet, dry and quite benign as sunshine amounts decrease into next week.

Also in situations like these, from past experience, watch any easterly flow slowly downgrades into length and a Northerly flow into Scandi and perhaps the UK to develop, does not always happen but I've certainly seen it in the past when the models show this type of pattern.

To be perfectly honest I'll wait and see what evolves on a daily basis once the cold air arrives.

If and when the Easterly flow arrives snow showers can and most probably will crop up at short notice, and the wind can always change direction for "windows" of convection to affect us and different areas.

What will be will be ...

[NickR]

All looks very frustrating to me atm in the models...

Are we basically just too far N to get much whilst from the wash southwards it's convective heaven? I just think we're too close to the high.

Any thoughts?

[Summer Sun]

All looks very frustrating to me atm in the models...

Are we basically just too far N to get much whilst from the wash southwards it's convective heaven? I just think we're too close to the high.

Any thoughts?

Yes the south east looks in the best position for snow for the north there will be a mix of some pleasant sunny cool days and cloudy cold days with frosty nights at times

Edited February 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[JP1972]

Yes the south east looks in the best position for snow for the north there will be a mix of some pleasant sunny cool days and cloudy cold days with frosty nights at times

Completely disagree as the models are starting to pick up on the flow being ENE which will benefit us.

[NickR]

Completely disagree as the models are starting to pick up on the flow being ENE which will benefit us.

They are (well, GFS is)... but that's a week away and even so the ENE is mainly for slightly further S. Up here we would be in slacker flow.

Of course, the main point is this is FI - in the (semi) reliable,it's a southern event.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the latest from Exeter

Latest from UKMO as far as Thurs sees little change to previous: in summary, "Risk of a few light wintry showers on exposed eastern coasts, increasing risk of local moderate wintry showers in the S/SE by Thurs".

As per my earlier post the south east seems the favoured spot for the bulk of the snow at this stage of course things could change over the coming days

Edited February 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Airedalejoe]

Yet another spell of cold frosty and potentially snowy weather on the way.

To be honest I'd be happy for some warmth now after a long winter, that's 3 out of the last 4 I'd class as good ones.

We were told it was going to be into double figures this weekend. Wishfull thinking, struggling to get above 6C at the moment here and this looks like being the 'mildest' day of the next 7 at least. Indeed by next weekend temps look like they'll struggle to get much above freezing!

Can't remember if we got snow in November but certainly we've had it in October December January and February.

Fingers crossed the kids get another (hopefully the last!) day of sledging and snowmen!!

[Summer Sun]

A lovely day out there today dry and sunny with no wind feeling mild in the sun

8.1°C