Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 18z ----->

[Summer Sun]

Looks as though we could be in for another bout of cold in a bout a weeks time ...

Any of the knowledgable among you care to summise what the charts are showing for us in about a weeks time for the North East please?

Well cold seems likely but don't take ECM's easterly as gospel until its at t96 and lower, it will either be cold and dry or cold and snowy

[JP1972]

Well cold seems likely but don't take ECM's easterly as gospel until its at t96 and lower, it will either be cold and dry or cold and snowy

I never get excited about Easterlies as they are never as good as North Easterlies for us are they?

[Snowy McSleety]

I never get excited about Easterlies as they are never as good as North Easterlies for us are they?

Feb 91?

Best snow of my lifetime and I'm 30!

Edited February 13, 2013 by Snowy McSleety

[Boro Snow]

not much thawing going on temp 0.7c and dew point -1.3

[Cloud 10]

Air temperature is barely above freezing here with moderate freezing rain falling.

Hopefully it won't be like this in the morning otherwise i may as well just drive

into the first hedge i see and be done with it!

[Alex95]

1C here with heavy rain, still plenty of lying snow and all the trees are covered in icicles.

[Alex95]

90% cover here, didn't really expect it to survive all that rain.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Alza

[Summer Sun]

Still a fair amount of snow left this morning despite the rain, its a foggy start here but its slowly turning brighter just waiting for the sun to break through now

[Rollo]

Amazing-here in Pontelandbowlingclub we had no depth at all and it's been gone quite a while.

[Rollo]

Strange we had snow most of the day bit only a slight covering and it was nearlly all gone my midnight- must be Pontelands position with a Southerly wind.

[Boro Snow]

misty in darlo quite a lot of snow remaining

[Summer Sun]

misty in darlo quite a lot of snow remaining

Yes I'm surprised by how much is left if the sun breaks through this mist I can't see much been left this time tomorrow

[Boro Snow]

Yes I'm surprised by how much is left if the sun breaks through this mist I can't see much been left this time tomorrow

yeah might be gone this evening if the sun gets out and the temps are what they are saying its gunna be, whats your thoughts on this next cold spell next week and the so called beast from the east itll probably be watered down closer to the time are my thoughts and can the gfs be wrong again

[Summer Sun]

yeah might be gone this evening if the sun gets out and the temps are what they are saying its gunna be, whats your thoughts on this next cold spell next week and the so called beast from the east it'll probably be watered down closer to the time are my thoughts and can the gfs be wrong again

Until an easterly is showing at t96 or lower I'd take it with a pinch of salt

GFS wants nothing to do with an easterly

ECM at the same time

They'll probably meet in the middle and bring a south easterly

Edited February 14, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Temperatures are finally back where they should be

currently 7.7°C and steady

[Snowmaggedon]

Judging by the MOD thread the next cold spell seems to be favouring the SE, oh dear

[Summer Sun]

Judging by the MOD thread the next cold spell seems to be favoring the SE, oh dear

Yep the SE will be the place for snow if the high stays where it is tonight for the rest of the UK it will be dry and cold with sunny spells during the day and frosts by night

[Boro Snow]

Yep the SE will be the place for snow if the high stays where it is tonight for the rest of the UK it will be dry and cold with sunny spells during the day and frosts by night

im not to bothered really now we have had some snow in darlo on quite a few occasions this winter a lot better than last and its started early oct 26th if i remember correctly ending with yesterdays snowfest. i could do with my gardens drying out they have been sodden since april/may time, so high pressure cold and dry will do, the south can have there snow, omg i so dont mean that lol

[Alex95]

That's just the SE bias in the model thread. The UK's best shot at one more significant cold spell would be a Greenland High, as shown by the ECM lately, and that usually favours the North and East, as it did in January and November 2010. If the GFS came off however the SE would be favoured for deep cold, but they wouldn't be getting much snow.

Lets keep our fingers crossed that the ECM is right, and the GFS is showing hints that it is trying to bring in a Greenland High at times during the latter stages of the run.

[Boro Snow]

That's just the SE bias in the model thread. The UK's best shot at one more significant cold spell would be a Greenland High, as shown by the ECM lately, and that usually favours the North and East, as it did in January and November 2010. If the GFS came off however the SE would be favoured for deep cold, but they wouldn't be getting much snow.

Lets keep our fingers crossed that the ECM is right, and the GFS is showing hints that it is trying to bring in a Greenland High at times during the latter stages of the run.

these no gh on the ecm run tho so i take it thats a big problem

[NickR]

these no gh on the ecm run tho so i take it thats a big problem

Depends where it sits in the ensembles and what the other runs show... not that I've looked.

[Boro Snow]

Depends where it sits in the ensembles and what the other runs show... not that I've looked.

can u explain what the ensembles are and how i view them, soz for the question im new to this, i know how to view the models is it on the same page

[Alex95]

The latest 12z ECM isn't looking as rosy as the 00z I'm afraid, although the potential for the high to retrogress to Greenland is still there.

[NickR]

can u explain what the ensembles are and how i view them, soz for the question im new to this, i know how to view the models is it on the same page

The ensembles are the whole set of runs that the models calculate. Basically they alter the starting conditions VERY slightly and see what that does to the runs. THis creates a big set of possible runs. If the operational (the one we see first - the main one) is supported by a lot of the other runs, then that's a sign it might be on the right track; if it's an outlier (i.e., has little support) then they might suggest caution is needed.. either that or it's a trendsetter!

I don't use NW's model viewing page - I use wetterzentrale, meteociel, and weatheronline (expert(, as well as the TWO viewed sometimes. There are links on all of these to the ensembles for London, Manchester, Aberdeen.. and meterociel have clickable maps for ensembles for anywhere.. but I keep forgetting the link for that!

[Boro Snow]

The ensembles are the whole set of runs that the models calculate. Basically they alter the starting conditions VERY slightly and see what that does to the runs. THis creates a big set of possible runs. If the operational (the one we see first - the main one) is supported by a lot of the other runs, then that's a sign it might be on the right track; if it's an outlier (i.e., has little support) then they might suggest caution is needed.. either that or it's a trendsetter!

I don't use NW's model viewing page - I use wetterzentrale, meteociel, and weatheronline (expert(, as well as the TWO viewed sometimes. There are links on all of these to the ensembles for London, Manchester, Aberdeen.. and meterociel have clickable maps for ensembles for anywhere.. but I keep forgetting the link for that!

nice one nick thanks for that, so for exmple i use meteociel when viewing the ecm run so the charts we see are those the ones they think will be correct and the ensembles are other options but are less likely to happen