South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013

[Jason T]

It's currently the only thing I can really see that might give something more exciting. Still knife-edge though and I do urge caution to everyone here, in case the weather in the next three days doesn't meet your expectations.

Very much so Coast. Would be nice to finish winter in style though. Charts below pretty mouth watering, I know, What is shown to actual can be complety different.

[Average Joe]

Latest BBC UK forecast on the website still suggests not a lot......got a mention for tonight, but nothing after that into the weekend.

[shaky]

There is still a batch of snow showers coming into east anglia at the moment!!am sure if it was inaprop it would have dipersed by now but they seem to be travelling well inland!

[Heisenberg]

No expectations here....i personally dont think we will get much up this end of the region. I do hope im wrong though....

Good luck to those in the firing line

[alexisj9]

Latest BBC UK forecast on the website still suggests not a lot......got a mention for tonight, but nothing after that into the weekend.

It's as simple as they do not yet know 100% or maybe even 50% on what will happen. It's a shame they seem very sure on the warm up late sunday monday though. It's got to be the southerlys on the low mixing in and diluting our cold pool, as the wind will still be east/northeast here.

[Average Joe]

It's as simple as they do not yet know 100% or maybe even 50% on what will happen. It's a shame they seem very sure on the warm up late sunday monday though. It's got to be the southerlys on the low mixing in and diluting our cold pool, as the wind will still be east/northeast here.

To be fair I've found them very good this winter in terms of at least mentioning the possibilities of snow several days in advance. For whatever reason the amounts we are/aren't going to get is barely worth a mention. Given they're the Pro's I'd be very surprised if they didn't know!!

[john pike]

nae

streamer

i want to see the next one of this

got to go out but be back later

[Suburban Streamer]

Looks good a nice covering for the south of london.

What's even more interesting on that chart is that to me it does very much indicate a fair chance of a thames streamer (Note the line of precip heading north east with less of a covering further east).

i thought a thames streamer was already forecast, albeit mostly light. or as ian f referred to it - a thames convergence. with the usual suspects effected in this type of streamer i.e. south of the thames with hampstead being northern extent intially (around midnight) before it slips further s and west with sw extent around Woking.

of course, precise locations and depths wont be known until its falling.

typing different locations into the met website/app clearly shows this. a line from Gravesend - Dartford - Croydon - Woking seems the best locations for london - currently, but the reality maybe slightly different

[nanu]

Latest BBC UK forecast on the website still suggests not a lot......got a mention for tonight, but nothing after that into the weekend.

yep bugger all really, odd flurries (12:50pm)... well thats really exciting considering how some people are ramping it up on this site..

[Methuselah]

There is still a batch of snow showers coming into east anglia at the moment!!am sure if it was inaprop it would have dipersed by now but they seem to be travelling well inland!

No sign of them, here...

[Average Joe]

yep bugger all really, odd flurries (12:50pm)... well thats really exciting considering how some people are ramping it up on this site..

Haha.....sorry Nanu........I was quite surprised to be honest, given some of the suggestions on here I was expecting it to at least be worthy of a "keep an eye out for", but you saw the same one as me, and good old Thomas hardly mentioned it.

[nanu]

There is still a batch of snow showers coming into east anglia at the moment!!am sure if it was inaprop it would have dipersed by now but they seem to be travelling well inland!

its a radar anaprop.. always happens when an easterly kicks in.. and will go on for most of the night

[nanu]

Haha.....sorry Nanu........I was quite surprised to be honest, given some of the suggestions on here I was expecting it to at least be worthy of a "keep an eye out for", but you saw the same one as me, and good old Thomas hardly mentioned it.

yeah.. the only thing we may have going for us is a thames streamer. IF it happens (and its a big if!!) on this wind will travel quite far inland

[Coast]

streamer

i want to see the next one of this

Yes John, was looking at the forerunners to those this morning along with NMM and thinking the same. Not sure if it will get modelled even yet but I've been checking GFS convective charts for signs of the convergence and in it's current run there is nothing showing, but I'm not suprised at that and it might only show on radar nearer the time.

For those still learning the ropes (as we all are to a greater or lesser extent) here is an explanation of convergence:

A slow-moving trough, which is parallel to the isobars and tends to be persistent over many hours or days. They are quite common in cold northerly outbreaks down the Irish Sea, affecting west Wales, Devon and Cornwall in particular, but can be found in other areas also. This convergence line can gives hours of persistent precipitation over very localised areas, whilst a few miles down the road it is relatively dry, leading to some heavy snowfall/rainfall. In summer the convergence lines are not as easy to forecast, but then can still occur due to sea-breeze convergence, and are over the land, whilst in winter they are over the sea.

http://www.metoffice.../guide/key.html

On a chart it looks like this:

Edited February 21, 2013 by Coast

[Tom Montalbano]

I like the placing of the double snow flake for tonight (if you can imagine where the coastline is )

Mm, I see some are photo shopping to meet their needs, Tamara.

Regards,

Tom.

[shaky]

nae

streamer

i want to see the next one of this

got to go out but be back later

Aaah all of a sudden there is a nice washer streamer aswell streaming into the east midlands!!thats a surprise last run didnt show anything like that!!

[feno13]

its a radar anaprop.. always happens when an easterly kicks in.. and will go on for most of the night

I will let you know , its heading straight towards me lol

[Buzzit]

I think there will certainly be flurries throughout the SE overnight tonight - satellite is looking positive with regards to the wind direction and funneling into the SE. Amazingly enough the situation is also being helped by the outflow from the low near the tip of Greenland

Edited February 21, 2013 by Buzzit

[Coast]

Probed a bit deeper into NW extra NMM at the end of its current time-span and this is an interesting precip feature for Saturday morning, out across The Channel and to an extent into Kent and maybe Essex:

Maybe it's a Channel streamer lurking between the isobars..... :ph34r:

[ZONE 51]

Looking through the models/fax charts with rather increasing excitement! The cold is now setting in from the east, everything snow from now on. I have map a small snow warning map for our area (approx), the map is correct on where the snow is expected to be and the risk level but i have upgraded in advance to the areas i expect the heavier snow to develop, this is based on my experience of these situations, so although at this stage a light covering is possible across Kent/Essex/parts of London/Surrey(east most likely/Sussex(east most likely)there is the risk that larger falls of snow do develop, this is most likely Thursday night and Friday. These snow showers moving in from the North sea. Some areas are in for a lot of persistent snow showers or streamers. What about a Thames Streamer? depending on the angle of the wind fields and how much convection gets going over the Estuary, ENE/E flow would bring these snow shws toward the west of the area, the Kent streamer most likely though.

The weekend i will let you know my thoughts nearer the time, all i can say now is 3 main snow events between now and Monday are possible.

Map below:

(very low file size map.)

ESS

I might need to adjust box 3 on my map i done last night a little further west.(looking at the ppn models/winds)

I did mention the Thames snow streamer. NAE now indicating this, see image below, late tonight, the arrows i have added indicate the direction of the snow showers, and Friday looking interesting early hours and through the day!

Edited February 21, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[alexisj9]

I think there will certainly be flurries throughout the SE overnight tonight - satellite is looking positive with regards to the wind direction and funneling into the SE. Amazingly enough the situation is also being helped by the outflow from the low near the tip of Greenland

Ah I guess thats the convergence, that out flow converging with the north sea stuff. That's if a convergence in weather means something converging with something.

[Sussex Jules]

Probed a bit deeper into NW extra NMM at the end of its current time-span and this is an interesting precip feature for Saturday morning, out across The Channel and to an extent into Kent and maybe Essex:

Maybe it's a Channel streamer lurking between the isobars..... :ph34r:

I like that dark pink blob over me

[Bluebreezer54]

I have a feeling after seeing a flock of parrots heading west, that we are maybe in for a few little surprises...

Could have been worse, it could have been a Flock of Seagulls

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGOWf5oH7Po

My youngest Son who was 2 at the time used to run and hide behind the sofa whenever this came on the tv, crying out "blokes hair". We stll have a laugh about it now. Cold grey and dry here.

[Tom Jarvis]

lol no snow is forcast for me tonigh do you think i will see any tonight??

[Coast]

I like that dark pink blob over me

:unsure: