South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 10th March 2013

[VillagePlank]

12z NAE barely has the snow reaching the South Coast!

What a downgrade!

Yes, but look at those streamers two days jam-packed full of Thames Streamers looks good to me!

[Met4Cast]

Yes, but look at those streamers two days jam-packed full of Thames Streamers looks good to me!

The accumulation chart is very underwhelming, though!

[A Wintry Mix]

Yet to have a good streamer in these parts

[Hammer]

12z NAE barely has the snow reaching the South Coast!

What a downgrade!

It's raw output has often been modified.

[80sWeather]

Just prepared the kitchen for this evening's meal. . Roast Chicken with honey roasted vegetables, roast potatoes and red wine gravy. Oh and some chilled vino of course. All that is needed afterwards is some snow

Sounds very nice, what time shall we arrive?!

[VillagePlank]

The accumulation chart is very underwhelming, though!

Ignore them thar accumulation charts. If I recall correctly, it has a lower than average snow-water ratio, and assumes a uniform ellipsoid Earth. Neither which hold true in these parts.

[john pike]

Thanks jp! What's your confidence ?!

hi sarah

confident we will all see something

best time for you would be monday pm to tues am for real hevy stuff at present

however instability and showers all over the place now so

expect the unexpected

another couple of hours and watch the temperature plummet

[Tamara]

Sounds very nice, what time shall we arrive?!

Well allowing for the snow (she says hopefully) and the distance then you better leave this minute otherwise there will be none left

[sarah7meme]

Thanks jo

Jp even !

[IDO]

According to the latest Met update, Essex and Kent are in the firing line till Thursday:

[Tamara]

Ignore them thar accumulation charts. If I recall correctly, it has a lower than average snow-water ratio, and assumes a uniform ellipsoid Earth. Neither which hold true in these parts.

NAE is not the best guide for convectional snow

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just prepared the kitchen for this evening's meal. . Roast Chicken with honey roasted vegetables, roast potatoes and red wine gravy. Oh and some chilled vino of course. All that is needed afterwards is some snow

Signora, may I recommend one of these.

Boun Appetito,

Tom.

Edited March 10, 2013 by TomSE20

[tight isobar]

Again peeps, to much emphasis on Channel LPS, edging northward, let her slide away east/south east and encourage,convection. Look east/north east.

[Stuie]

I've just seen the BBC News 24 forecast. Very underwhelming. Am I missing something here, or are their forecasts a little out of date?

They are in competition with Sky news to see who can hide the snow the most.

[Suburban Streamer]

i dont think there is a model (free one i mean) that can predict streamers. the best the nae can do is signal roughly where showers will be but there is no way it can show us intensity of showers nor lying snow depth from convective showers. looking at the 12z nae, i agree with Boar - the signal is there for streamers, the specifics will be undecided until the nowcasting commences

good luck everyone

Edited March 10, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[ChartViewer]

NAE is not the best guide for convectional snow

better than the gfs though?

[tight isobar]

NAE is not the best guide for convectional snow

Bang on with that...:-)

[Tamara]

Signora, may I recommend one of these.

Boun Appetito,

Tom.

Molte grazie gentile signore

[Met4Cast]

I'm hoping the same shower line continues into this evening when we start to see some heavier showers developing, you can see why..

[Tamara]

better than the gfs though?

maybe... but hopefully not atm

Edited March 10, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Ice BIast]

Yet to have a good streamer in these parts

Yes, and I can't see us getting much if that low to the south doesn't start correcting north. Still time for change though.

Edited March 10, 2013 by lce Blast

[VillagePlank]

NAE is not the best guide for convectional snow

Most models really struggle with sub meso-scale convection. They always hint at wetness, but they simply can't cope with a hill in the middle of the North Downs, say. Experience counts for a lot more, now, I reckon, than model reading skill. In this case unstable air (more by shear and lapse rates rather than your normal bog standard "looking for a thunderstorm" parameters) behind the front are essentially going to evaporate relatively warm North Sea SST temps and on a brisk E'ly whack that air straight into the side of the Downs whilst spinning the air upward by normal heat rises or by shear.

The Thames Estuary, which is even warmer than the North Sea, should really pep them up.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[rmc1987]

My location doesn't always give me great totals and sometimes I miss out altogether. It seems the MO have the snow to our south.

Though I'm sure I heard it'd be to our east? Anyway can anyone tell me I'll see at least a flurry lol

[Tamara]

Yep - putting aside what happens down here, it will be very interesting to see what develops up towards the Estuary. We know f.e from Feb 2009 how suddenly situations can develop Not that 40cms is expected this time....

[Ruthie]

Skys are really getting dark here in twickenham looks like something might start up.

U at the rugby? Am just down road from twick, it started to do something earlier, sleet or snizzle of some sort, didnt last, but sky still looks dark...