South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 21st March 2013 18:00hrs>

[Coast]

OK, in-house NMM run is much the same as the NAE until tomorrow midday with most of the action in EA and a bit further West:

Note that big area of interest over Paul Sherman's house again!!!

This is where NMM departs from the NAE (both hi-res models remember, only going out to + 48 hours):

Snow all the way down through the SE right to the coast tomorrow evening like GFS... Lamppost watching I think.

[kold weather]

Just had sleet in carshalton. Not much but definitely sleety.

Yeah there was sleet in SW London as well around 7am, no mistaking it.

Think parts of EA and northern parts of this region will do well tonight, think most of us will probably just have to be a little jealous at that lot when some of the snow reports come through tomorrow morning.

[all weather]

On the train....and now snowing in balham....

[Coast]

Current temps and DP's:

[Pixel]

Yeah there was sleet in SW London as well around 7am, no mistaking it.

Think parts of EA and northern parts of this region will do well tonight, think most of us will probably just have to be a little jealous at that lot when some of the snow reports come through tomorrow morning.

recon your're right there... watched with envy when everyone further south had their share last time

[Floatylight]

FL - light snow was expected for EA in the update I did last night, nothing significant today though

I'm just about to rush out the door to work but very quick update, as you were really as of the update I did last night. Rain/Sleet/Snow returning towards evening, becoming more exclusively snow for EA into the early hours (if not before) and falling for much of Saturday morning.

2-10cms across EA, with perhaps 1-2cms later further south and east in the region - the precip coming in from the SE later saturday and into sunday there on both GFS and ECM today, but really very light.

SK

Thanks sk x

[Plough King]

Snow now at Vauxhall.

[VillagePlank]

For Kent/ E Sussex. on Saturday:

This mornings GFS 00z doesn't look good for our region, 850 Theta-W's,

You need less than 5C for (certain) snow. North Kent gets there about midday Saturday, just, but the rest of the region looks just the wrong side of marginal. Surface thicknesses, come in earlier, though, with the average temp between cloud bottom and ground condusive for snow from about 6am for North Kent and spreading over the whole region by 3pm.

However, dew-points are right on the razor edge,

Normal caveats apply to using precipitation charts,

Given all that, I think one is forced to conclude rain at the surface, perhaps wintry mix, 50/50 snow from 9am at height in North Kent. Too many indicators on, or on the wrong side of marginal, I'm afraid, and when we eventually get there - no precipitation.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Gowon]

We have light snow here in Shirley.

[Steve C]

Here is the NMM model prediction for accumulated precipitation until 00:00 on Sunday. It looks like far NE parts of our region will have a practical non event in terms of snow, but some of us, particularly in the W-NW of our region should have quite a reasonable snowfall. Nothing like places like North Wales and Northern Ireland though!

[Coast]

DP is down to 0.0°C here in Eastbourne and it feels bitingly cold already.

Latest SatRep shows the cloud cover:

[yamkin]

Snowing very lightly here

[TheGate]

Snowing here, 1.6c. It must be snow as it settled on the dog, and she is black, so it was quite visible.

[VillagePlank]

Clutching at straws,

GooFuS going for T_d=1C for about now, but observed, here in Rochester, T_d = 0.0C.

There is still hope!

Edited March 22, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Stevieray1]

Morning all! It's very windy here this morning. MetO app has heavy snow for here tomorrow morning the rest of the day is sleet but an hour or so of heavy snow would be lovely thank you!

[Kentspur]

Light sleet in Lewisham nothing exciting here

[Country Boy]

nothing here. not expecting anything. the wind is two strong thats what happened last time.but some dramatic high waves on the coast.

[easton888]

light snow in finsbury park, north london. met office says should be raining. lots of reports of snow in london, does this mean the cold has pushed further south?

[anything-but]

This mornings run from home to Herne Bay/Strood/Medway city estate/Gravesend/Meopham/Sidcup/New cross then Vauxhall isn`t going to be a balmy one,think i`ve run out of thermals to wear!

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

It's snowing here...very lightly and it's not heavy enough to be sticking to the wet surfaces (yet) but the most noticeable thing since last night is how the wind has picked up !

Have a lovely Friday

[warrenb]

Light snow falling here in Tonbridge

[Paul Sherman]

OK, in-house NMM run is much the same as the NAE until tomorrow midday with most of the action in EA and a bit further West:

Note that big area of interest over Paul Sherman's house again!!!

This is where NMM departs from the NAE (both hi-res models remember, only going out to + 48 hours):

Snow all the way down through the SE right to the coast tomorrow evening like GFS... Lamppost watching I think.

[VillagePlank]

Given my forecast, here, which is pretty much GFS output, a quick look at GEFS, shows that this GFS run was one of the warmest and driest runs (for the 23rd)

If it corrects to the mean - who knows! I do think that the quasi-stationary low out to the west of Ireland looks a little odd in shape, and, also, the slight corrections northward of the battleground seems like a minor numerical error rather than great weather modelling, since this low really doesn't have a track as such, so normal northward corrections would seem not to apply.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Gary_R_Walker]

Given my forecast, here, which is pretty much GFS output, a quick look at GEFS, shows that this GFS run was one of the warmest and driest runs.

If it corrects to the mean - who knows! I do think that the quasi-stationary low out to the west of Ireland looks a little odd in shape, and, also, the slight corrections northward of the battleground seems like a minor numerical error rather than great weather modelling, since this low really doesn't have a track as such, so normal northward corrections would seem not to apply.

Exactly.

[alexisj9]

On the train....and now snowing in balham....

Where, balham south london?