South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ----->

[Mark Neal.]

Snow Pictures from today's walk to Shotover Country Park, 200m up (across road from me) can be found here- http://www.flickr.com/photos/63199651@N07/sets/72157633069171061/

[karlos1983]

Dont think i've ever been on the right side of marginal

Your frustrated,try living down here!!

Yep fair enough, at least I've seen some snow. To be honest, come the Summer we do tend to do better than the North, why can't I have my cake and eat it? Lol

[ARTDEMOLE]

0.1C...9 km/h North at this present time...

[jessandjon]

Weather still dull..........,,even after a bottle!!!!! :-)

[khodds]

Oh god, I've had more than a bottle... Can't take any more of this drizzle and dullness. It's grim.

[jessandjon]

Oh god, I've had more than a bottle... Can't take any more of this drizzle and dullness. It's grim.

You would think a bottle would brighten things up a bit !!!!!!!

[karlos1983]

Well the GFS and UKMO want to bring S'Westerlies in next weekend. ECM is having none of it!

[SNOWYLAD]

Yes reading the BBC text forecasts seem to suggest that rain proceeded by snow and a gradual warming of temperatures is on offer this Easter.

[AWD]

Well the GFS and UKMO want to bring S'Westerlies in next weekend. ECM is having none of it!

The ECM agrees with other models mate. All 3 bring in milder air at the weekend and I probably speak for many here by saying "yes please".

However, the problem we have is that we need a deep LP to shift the block up norf, and so thats what the models are showing.

Associated with a deep LP of course is a lot of rainfall, and so whilst milder, it looks like a rather wet Easter Weekend down here too. I'm sure I speak for many here by saying "no thanks".

Hopefully, we can get the block shifted quickly, get the associated rains through our region quickly, then open the door to something warmer, sunnier, interspersed by some convective activity.

This afternoons runs will be interesting.

Edited March 24, 2013 by AWD

[festivalking]

I for one would take the hit for a wet weekend to get to some warm and settled weather

[AWD]

Mmm..... Maybe the EC Op was a milder option as the spread mean indicates an undercut and cold/snow through the weekend;

[offerman]

What abot the 10 event i. F was mentioning, fair play to him though for sticking his neck out that far.

[katemart]

Lovely flurry of snow. Big, fat flakes. Lasted about 10 mins. AT 1C, feels like -3C, DP -2.4C, WB -0.2C. Hum 785, 1012mb.

[Bristawl Si]

ydays model runs were indicating big chance of blizzards next weekend - is that gone now?

[Karl83]

ydays model runs were indicating big chance of blizzards next weekend - is that gone now?

Hmmm, looks like it, at the moment.

But don't worry, just yet.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Karl83

[Dean E]

The ECM agrees with other models mate. All 3 bring in milder air at the weekend and I probably speak for many here by saying "yes please".

However, the problem we have is that we need a deep LP to shift the block up norf, and so thats what the models are showing.

Associated with a deep LP of course is a lot of rainfall, and so whilst milder, it looks like a rather wet Easter Weekend down here too. I'm sure I speak for many here by saying "no thanks".

Hopefully, we can get the block shifted quickly, get the associated rains through our region quickly, then open the door to something warmer, sunnier, interspersed by some convective activity.

This afternoons runs will be interesting.

Like you said, it would be nice to get the block shifted quickly. But it's always hard for the Atlantic to smash through a cold block. Especially this one as its such a strong one...

I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS starts to head towards what the ECM was showing yesterday... The GFS always struggles when the weather is not default zonal!

SM

[Beast of Plympton]

Very cold here today. Its -1.1c and there seems to be a hard frost developing on the trees outside?? They are just get whiter!! Very pretty but I have never seen that before...

[Bumpkin]

Morning. 0.7c grey and drab but I shall take it because its dry. The models seem to show either cold or mild and wet. I shall continue my search for mild and dry

Edited March 24, 2013 by Bumpkin

[Frosty_wsm]

Mmm..... Maybe the EC Op was a milder option as the spread mean indicates an undercut and cold/snow through the weekend;

@MattHugo81: 00Z EC ENS yet again want to prolonged the cold well into next wkend and hold the Atlantic/milder conditions at bay, with GFS ENS opposite.

It looks like the op was a mild outlier, it's still possible that our region could see one more decent snowfall before hopefully spring proper decides to bless us with it's presence.

[Wilxy]

Cloudy breezy and very cold. -0.4°C

[Joe Levy]

I reckon the cold will hold on longer than this morning's models are currently showing. The arrival of that large Atlantic low pressure system is 6 days away and given some models' tendency to overdo the size of low pressure systems and underestimate the strength of high pressure, it is seems fairly likely to me that the system will slide underneath the block.

[AWD]

It looks like the op was a mild outlier, it's still possible that our region could see one more decent snowfall before hopefully spring proper decides to bless us with it's presence.

The problem is that the EC, UKMO and to a lesser degree, the GFS Op all signal a similiar pattern of the depression deepening and pushing further north giving us nothing more than another bout of cold rain.

Now is it a case of the higher res Op runs catching onto something that the lower res ens have failed to catch, or just a morning where the Op runs are too bullish with the northern extent if the pattern. The 12z should give us a good idea here.

Either way, they all signal a cold and predominantly dry working week ahead with uncertainty surrounding the end of the week. We could see:

Option A; The low deepen and push further north giving us cold rain then becoming milder but still wet.

Option B; The low attack the embedded cold air over the UK more slowly and less progressively than what the Op runs show this morning giving a snowfall across the South but not lasting long before further fronts push NE and introduce milder air and rain.

Option C; The low ejects a shortwave east along the channel giving a significant snowfall to the south with the low disrupting and sliding under the block keeping us cold with a snowy Easter weekend.

Place your bets now!!!!

[khodds]

As long as it slides under and gives us a taste of what the areas north of us have had, I don't care!

[Bristawl Si]

I'll take option C plse AWD

[Joe Levy]

The problem is that the EC, UKMO and to a lesser degree, the GFS Op all signal a similiar pattern of the depression deepening and pushing further north giving us nothing more than another bout of cold rain.

Now is it a case of the higher res Op runs catching onto something that the lower res ens have failed to catch, or just a morning where the Op runs are too bullish with the northern extent if the pattern. The 12z should give us a good idea here.

Either way, they all signal a cold and predominantly dry working week ahead with uncertainty surrounding the end of the week. We could see:

Option A; The low deepen and push further north giving us cold rain then becoming milder but still wet.

Option B; The low attack the embedded cold air over the UK more slowly and less progressively than what the Op runs show this morning giving a snowfall across the South but not lasting long before further fronts push NE and introduce milder air and rain.

Option C; The low ejects a shortwave east along the channel giving a significant snowfall to the south with the low disrupting and sliding under the block keeping us cold with a snowy Easter weekend.

Place your bets now!!!!

In any case, it's far too far away for us to be certain anyway! I reckon we won't have a clear idea until perhaps as little as 2/3 days before.