South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ----->

[TwisterGirl81]

L

Option C although I think we'll get rain and wind, I don't min as long as its a good storm

[cornish snow]

The problem is that the EC, UKMO and to a lesser degree, the GFS Op all signal a similiar pattern of the depression deepening and pushing further north giving us nothing more than another bout of cold rain.

Now is it a case of the higher res Op runs catching onto something that the lower res ens have failed to catch, or just a morning where the Op runs are too bullish with the northern extent if the pattern. The 12z should give us a good idea here.

Either way, they all signal a cold and predominantly dry working week ahead with uncertainty surrounding the end of the week. We could see:

Option A; The low deepen and push further north giving us cold rain then becoming milder but still wet.

Option B; The low attack the embedded cold air over the UK more slowly and less progressively than what the Op runs show this morning giving a snowfall across the South but not lasting long before further fronts push NE and introduce milder air and rain.

Option C; The low ejects a shortwave east along the channel giving a significant snowfall to the south with the low disrupting and sliding under the block keeping us cold with a snowy Easter weekend.

Place your bets now!!!!

Option C ,better book a ticket for the channel islands!!

[coxxy22]

i would take option b or c ;0)

[Joe Levy]

L

Option C although I think we'll get rain and wind, I don't min as long as its a good storm

If option C occurs then it is far more likely that we will get snow than rain, even down here, since the dew points will be very low and the cold air will be embedded at lower levels, regardless of the upper air temperatures (though it really does help if the upper air temperatures are at -2 or below)

[Karl83]

Option C please Bob

[jethro]

I've just been outside for a ciggie, went to wipe off the soggy bench only to realise the wet is frozen solid. Literally every thing is glazed with a thin layer of ice, the patio is lethal! Biting wind too, looks like it's going to be a rather chilly walk up on top of the hills today

[Beast of Plympton]

The problem is that the EC, UKMO and to a lesser degree, the GFS Op all signal a similiar pattern of the depression deepening and pushing further north giving us nothing more than another bout of cold rain.

Now is it a case of the higher res Op runs catching onto something that the lower res ens have failed to catch, or just a morning where the Op runs are too bullish with the northern extent if the pattern. The 12z should give us a good idea here.

Either way, they all signal a cold and predominantly dry working week ahead with uncertainty surrounding the end of the week. We could see:

Option A; The low deepen and push further north giving us cold rain then becoming milder but still wet.

Option B; The low attack the embedded cold air over the UK more slowly and less progressively than what the Op runs show this morning giving a snowfall across the South but not lasting long before further fronts push NE and introduce milder air and rain.

Option C; The low ejects a shortwave east along the channel giving a significant snowfall to the south with the low disrupting and sliding under the block keeping us cold with a snowy Easter weekend.

Place your bets now!!!!

Since you are kind enough to give us options AWD I will take C please. And if I don't get it I am holding you entirely responsible!!

[dancing daisy]

Option D - freak weather system which will bring a heatwave to the SW

Here is the evidence:

Greece, 2009, I went to Greece leaving behind UK grey skies, it (unusually) rained a lot there. UK newspaper headlines..'Wot a scorcher!'

Spain, 2010, shivered by the pool, UK as above

Kos, 2011, cold nights, ok ish days, UK as above

New York, 2012, FREEZING, bar 1 day, UK as above

Amsterdam, 2012, rain, rain, rain, UK as above

Spain, April 2013...we shall see

But feel free to thank me when I come home looking like an unbaked pastie and you're all glowing with health.

[Beast of Plympton]

I've just been outside for a ciggie, went to wipe off the soggy bench only to realise the wet is frozen solid. Literally every thing is glazed with a thin layer of ice, the patio is lethal! Biting wind too, looks like it's going to be a rather chilly walk up on top of the hills today

Confirm, chilly hill!!

[jessandjon]

Option c please :-)

My net app looks very boring 5 c all week will little grey cloud in each day!!!

My net app looks very boring 5 c all week will little grey cloud in each day!!!

[Argyle1980]

Has to be option c for me, for the last couple of days I have been thinking of a far south coast event. But can we still hold on to the cold!.... It's a yes at the moment but I think waiting till tues/wed's results will then have the answers for us down here in the wet country !.

[Nights King]

Wow an ice day at the end of march! -1.1c As for snow it is never going to happen is it I expect a rain event.

Edited March 24, 2013 by mullender83

[cornish snow]

Option D - freak weather system which will bring a heatwave to the SW

Here is the evidence:

Greece, 2009, I went to Greece leaving behind UK grey skies, it (unusually) rained a lot there. UK newspaper headlines..'Wot a scorcher!'

Spain, 2010, shivered by the pool, UK as above

Kos, 2011, cold nights, ok ish days, UK as above

New York, 2012, FREEZING, bar 1 day, UK as above

Amsterdam, 2012, rain, rain, rain, UK as above

Spain, April 2013...we shall see

But feel free to thank me when I come home looking like an unbaked pastie and you're all glowing with health.

Can i have your job please?

[dancing daisy]

Can i have your job please?

I live for holidays and I never pay more than £200 for a week all inclusive, apart from New York obviously. I am a frustrated travel agent, so anyone that wants a holiday give me a shout & I'll find you a bargain.

The one I am going on on the 2nd April cost me £150, flying from Bristol, transfers and All inclusive for 4 days, 3 nights which is a major bargain for Easter hols.

[offerman]

What about i.f expected event later this week, will that happen?

[AWD]

I live for holidays and I never pay more than £200 for a week all inclusive, apart from New York obviously. I am a frustrated travel agent, so anyone that wants a holiday give me a shout & I'll find you a bargain.

The one I am going on on the 2nd April cost me £150, flying from Bristol, transfers and All inclusive for 4 days, 3 nights which is a major bargain for Easter hols.

Looking for All Inclusive, preferably a Kids Village, on the Med coast or Canaries. October Half Term, preferably flying from Bristol. Less than £150pp. Good Luck! lol.

[AWD]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY Cold, dry conditions for week ahead but we have risk of a snow problem Fri-Sat across region. Confidence currently low on detail."

[jessandjon]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY Cold, dry conditions for week ahead but we have risk of a snow problem Fri-Sat across region. Confidence currently low on detail."

:-)

[dancing daisy]

Looking for All Inclusive, preferably a Kids Village, on the Med coast or Canaries. October Half Term, preferably flying from Bristol. Less than £150pp. Good Luck! lol.

Be realistic lol Canaries aren't going to be that cheap. that's why I have never been there.

Can do this one though, nice hotel, good reviews and a bargain price. Also easy to get to Barcelona.

http://www.teletextholidays.co.uk/Holidays/Results/Holiday-details?search=true&searchId=Holiday&packageId=6354969113-GRO-429-115-2-2&source=Bookable&availabilityCriteria=search%3dtrue%26searchId%3dHoliday%26destinationId%3d10522%26destinationType%3dLabel%26dateMin%3d10%252f26%252f2013%2b00%253a00%253a00%2bAM%26dateMax%3d10%252f26%252f2013%2b00%253a00%253a00%2bAM%26departureDate%3d10%252f26%252f2013%2b00%253a00%253a00%2bAM%26durationMin%3d7%26durationMax%3d7%26flexibleDays%3d0%26adults%3d2%26children%3d2%26departureId%3d19%26boardType%3d5%26priceMin%3d50%26priceMax%3d1000%26rating%3d345%26duration%3d7%26resort%3dFalse

[AWD]

Be realistic lol Canaries aren't going to be that cheap. that's why I have never been there.

Can do this one though, nice hotel, good reviews and a bargain price. Also easy to get to Barcelona.

http://www.teletextholidays.co.uk/Holidays/Results/Holiday-details?search=true&searchId=Holiday&packageId=6354969113-GRO-429-115-2-2&source=Bookable&availabilityCriteria=search%3dtrue%26searchId%3dHoliday%26destinationId%3d10522%26destinationType%3dLabel%26dateMin%3d10%252f26%252f2013%2b00%253a00%253a00%2bAM%26dateMax%3d10%252f26%252f2013%2b00%253a00%253a00%2bAM%26departureDate%3d10%252f26%252f2013%2b00%253a00%253a00%2bAM%26durationMin%3d7%26durationMax%3d7%26flexibleDays%3d0%26adults%3d2%26children%3d2%26departureId%3d19%26boardType%3d5%26priceMin%3d50%26priceMax%3d1000%26rating%3d345%26duration%3d7%26resort%3dFalse

Needs to have a beach! lol.

Oh well, either Perranporth, Ilfracombe, Looe or St Ives it is this year then!

[dancing daisy]

Needs to have a beach! lol.

Oh well, either Perranporth, Ilfracombe, Looe or St Ives it is this year then!

It has got a beach, 50 metres away lol

I might book that myself, close to the airport, close to beach & town, good reviews. You can't go wrong!

Edited March 24, 2013 by dancing daisy

[Nights King]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY Cold, dry conditions for week ahead but we have risk of a snow problem Fri-Sat across region. Confidence currently low on detail."

I'll wager a rain event or total miss.........

[AWD]

It has got a beach, 50 metres away lol

I really didn't know Barcelona was on the coast. I thought it was in the middle of Spain. I feel stupid now. lol.

Wonder if it would be even cheaper to book an easyjet flight to Barcelona and then a travelodge room for a few nights. Mmmmmm!!

You've given me something to think about now.

[dancing daisy]

I really didn't know Barcelona was on the coast. I thought it was in the middle of Spain. I feel stupid now. lol.

Wonder if it would be even cheaper to book an easyjet flight to Barcelona and then a travelodge room for a few nights. Mmmmmm!!

You've given me something to think about now.

It won't be cheaper I'm afraid. The flights alone are very expensive, you're far better off doing it this way, at least you get a choice then with food/drink & you can choose to eat out.

The beauty of the coastline along there is that it is so easy to get a train into Barcelona as the train line runs along it & it only costs about 10 euro's return, so it makes a great day out. Also staying all inclusive in a H Top is good as you get to eat (for free) in all of their other hotels, they're a bit like Premier Inn, there are hundreds of them about, so you can catch a bus/train to another resort and eat at their hotel so that you don't have to get back for dinner etc, you also get to drink

You have to be careful with the H Tops though as some of them are grim! I have always been lucky as I check trip advisor and really do my research before I book, the only time that I didn't I ended up in hotel Beirut.

Whenever we go we always travel about, get the hotel to provide a packed lunch or go to a sister hotel for food & drinks. We don't tend to stay in the resort our hotel is in, you've got to see the area haven't you.

If you want any tips then message me, I have been to Barcelona more times than I have been to London, it's an amazing city, I also love the Costa Brava, it's cheap & cheerful and sunny. A weekend in London for a birthday treat recently set me back almost £400 for myself & my daughter for only 2 nights. I have done 3 nights in Spain for £60 before now, all inclusive. I am a real cheapskate.

Anyway, back to the weather...sorry MODs and viewers

Edited March 24, 2013 by dancing daisy

[karlos1983]

I'll wager a rain event or total miss.........

Yep, that would be my bet. Whenever there is mention of snow for the south 5 days out, it always disappears. Even if we get yellow warnings if snow 3 days out, they will shift.

I wonder if I can resist looking at the weather models all week, and just take it as a surprise.

Now there's a challenge!

Edited March 24, 2013 by karlos1983