Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday june 15th 2013.All models are finally on some agreement over the events leading up to midweek this morning. Today shows a showery WSW flow over the UK with a Low pressure crossing East over Northern Britain through the day. A ridge follows tonight killing off most of the showers with a new Low approaching the SW of England tomorrow. This slows down and stalls to the SW but throws a trough up into Southernmost areas through the day with rain at times moving up as far as South Wales to London through the day. The rain then dies back South temporarily before returning North and East over Tuesday leaving all areas with a quiet interlude midweek with a slack NW wind and just scattered showers over the North.GFS then brings new Low pressure over the North of the UK later in the week with troughs affecting all areas with rain at times for all with some brief drier interludes too. FI this morning shows little to inspire sun worshippers with a succession of fronts attached to Low pressure areas crossing the UK from the West in continuing brisk and cool winds with just brief drier interludes in between.The GFS Ensembles have shortened the duration of the warmer blip this morning for the early part of next week in the SE and quickly returns to the levels of normal values shared by the rest of the UK throughout the run. With rain scattered about throughout the run and all locations plus a good degree of tightness between the members supporting this pattern there seems little chance now of seeing anything particularly settled and warm this side of July.The Jet Stream remains the culprit for the continuing changeable pattern with an axis too far South to allow High pressure to settle near the UK instead steering Low pressure further South than normal towards the UK or just to the North instead of over Iceland and Northern waters.UKMO today shows a quiet period midweek with sunshine and a lot of dry weather over the UK for a time before troughs associated with Low pressure affect the North and West later in the week, spreading steadily SE with time.GEM today shows a very changeable pattern with the chance of some thundery rain midweek in the SE before all areas see a return to Atlantic based weather in association with troughs and low pressure feeding down from the NW.NAVGEM doesn't show a drier phase in the South midweek, reserving that for the North only as the Low to the South is shown to migrate NE across these areas midweek with some thundery rain in places for a time. The end of the run then shows the UK back under a West or NW flow of air with occasional rain, more especially over the North with temperatures remaining very close to average at best.ECM today shows a very changeable pattern with details irrelevant from day to day. It can best be described as an alternating pattern of periods of cloudy weather with rain at times while other days may see a predominance of bright and dry weather as transitory ridges pass, these most likely across the South. With winds always blowing from a West or NW direction it will never be very warm with temperatures close to the average range of 15-20C in the South and 12-17C in the North. Winds are often shown as brisk and cool.In Summary today the weather looks like staying in changeable mode over the next few weeks. This involves some rain at times for all areas but some reasonable drier and brighter spells too. The one constant that remains unchanged throughout the period is the balance of synoptics that support the Azores high remaining in place near the Azores and the continuing track of Low pressure sliding across the Atlantic further South than we would like due to a Jet Stream that remains persistently too far South. This keeps the door open for successive troughs and Low pressure to affect the UK from time to time. Also with winds for nearly all of the time between SW and NW we will never get any real summer warmth from this setup so taking all this into account this morning having dissected the model outputs it looks like July is likely to be the earliest point we may see anything remotely very warm or hot over the UK unless a major pattern change develops soon.

[Frosty.]

very accurate leaving 2/3 left?

Indeed, tons of time left for sustained warm and settled weather to visit our shores, the next few weeks will be in changeable mode as gibby said above. I will only start becoming concerned in early July if there are still no strong signals for warm anticyclonic weather to develop but I have a feeling that during July, the azores/atlantic anticyclone will stop being a stranger and build in properly rather than the occasional weak ridging into the south up to the end of the month.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[William of Walworth]

Ok Gibby gives me a shot of reality. Not nice!

 

That 06Hz GFS run of yesterday was the biggest FI tease going, then ....

 

I'm literally desparate for the SW to avoid the worst of any rain in late June ... my overoptimistic hopes of fully dry and sunny for the week starting 24/6 seem dead for the moment though.

 

It is still true that details can yet change mind you.

Edited June 15, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Tamara]

Ok Gibby gives me a shot of reality. Not nice!

 

That 06Hz GFS run of yesterday was the biggest FI tease going, then ....

 

I'm literally desparate for the SW to avoid the worst of any rain in late June ... my overoptimistic hopes of fully dry and sunny for the week starting 24/6 seem dead for the moment though.

 

It is still true that details can yet change mind you.

The truth is that, putting optimism and hope for change aside, the outlook as well described above has been apparent to persist since the fine spell broke up after 10th June.  I pointed the other day to the cyclical aspect of the weather pattern which has reverted to the sort of conditions we saw prior to the fine spell with the Azores High not taking a summer vacation northwards and the jet stream remaining suppressed further south than might be expected for the time of year.

 

Its not unusual to get a westerly pattern in the early summer, but the first week or so of June apart, the jet stream patterns have not been as far north as one might expect. It was why I described that fine spell as a snapshot of fine weather because it has been an untypical break in an otherwise long dominating theme.

 

This NAEFS anomaly chart from yesterdays 12z, and which is unlikely to have changed much at all this morning, is a long term one taking us to the end of June, and obviously open to adjustment. However,  if you go to the site and skip though the whole output suite you will see that the atlantic higher pressure anomaly stays firm throughout away from the UK with the downstream lower pressure trough anomaly extending NW-SE into the UK (and into the nearby continent at times as shown earlier in the output). Pretty much what we see exactly reflected in this mornings modelling for during next week after the remnants of this ex tropical system leave by Tues/Weds.

 

 

 

 

.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[mushymanrob]

very accurate leaving 2/3 left?

 

yyyyep!.... but you tell me, how many times has the second and third thirds of summer ie july and august recovered from a lengthy lousy spell in june? 1983... id suggest the pattern isnt condusive to a complete flip from cool, cloudy, wet, to sparkling blue sunny skies. whilst the rest of summer might not continue with this depressing atlantic driven regime, in light of many recent summers id suggest the odds of something of note are very heavily stacked against it happening.

 

Even in the shortish term, I think you're being over harsh on these models anyway mushy -- take those frames from 00z posted by Frosty above, just for a snapshot example. For the S at least, for a lot of the time, I can see far more benign than completely unsettled likely outcomes. It's all in the detail and positioning as ever, usual caveats apply as ever, and yes small positional changes could still bring big changes in detail on the ground. But your recent insistence that the Azores High is necessarily the enemy this year doesn't really look nailed on to me, and may not be true for everyone anyway, depending on location. AH to my mind may well yet be sufficiently our friend in the S at least, to kill off the worst rain risk. Certainly seems to making a decent effort to influence us. And synoptics still have time to improve too, deterioration is possible too of course but neither is inevitable.

 

You more or less wrote off June in the Summer 2013 thread which I think is overdoing it. All to play for still for the last week, IMO, and I'm nervously thinking that to say that isn't only hopecasting -- obviously it is to some extent!! but let's keep watching.

 

but william... over the last 2 weeks frosty and gavin have posted predictive charts showing that we are never too far off from something nice.... only for them not to be accurate.  the only charts that do look like being accurate are the anomaly charts which john points out are the best indicator of the most likely type ahead.

 

the point is that dispite these charts showing the azh ridging in, pressure rise to the south, nw/se split, this mornings runs are simply awful. they are moving away from the suggestion of something nice, something nice that is always in fi.

 

to repeat my preferance... theres no one here who would like, wish for, desire, love, a long hot sunny DRY spell of weather more then what i do... im sick to death of working in the wet, but i just dont see anything to be optimistic about. the models have moved away from a 'settled spell in a few days time', to no settled spell, they are all heading further into a protracted spell of changeable weather . as this has happened several times in recent years, surely the odds are that this regime isnt going anywhere fast and could well last into the middle of summer and beyond.

[AWD]

A quick look to where I think we may be heading both short term and longer term.

Tomorrow we are under the influence of a compex low pressure system;

Whilst the east might see some early sunshine, things will quickly cloud over for many of us ahead of a band of rain entering the South West;

Temperatures around average in the east, a bit below in the west ;

With some tightening isobars around the South and West, it could also be a rather windy day too. The band of rain heads slowly north tomorrow night through Wales and the West Midlands, slowly decaying as it does so;

Monday sees the rain in the west all but fizzling out, with a new front of more showery rainfall approaching the south/south west;

This rain looks like falling in a more showery nature so could end up being rather hit and miss. This mostly affecting southern parts with northern parts having a largely dry day, with some sunny spells;

Temperatures on Monday again around average for many of us;

(remember average this time of year is typically 16c - 22c dependant on location, and average as you would expect in mid June, is warm under any sunshine).

Tuesday comes and we are still governed by fronts and low pressure to the south of the UK;

Again, the south seeing the rainfall, some of which could be rather heavy to, the north escaping with relatively benign conditions;

Temperatures again around average, although by this time with an increasingly humid feel so perhaps feeling rather muggy;

That's as far as rainfall can be even semi-reliably predicted now. So a look towards mid week and the end of next week in a more broad and open mind. There is suggestions from both the ECM and GFS that a plume of warm, continental, humid air may graze the south east corner. Below you can see this reflected in the Dewpoint values midweek;

Some quite high DP's there, suggestive of a muggy and humid feel to our weather midweek. To early to say about any thunderstorm potential, plus the convective thread would be a better place for that. You can see below on the GFS Temp charts the rise in temperature locally in the South East to some above average, rather warm values;

This is association with some higher 850hpa air entering the south and east;

Can't promise much sunshine at this stage but those who like something warmer and humid feeling, a trip to London might be worthwhile midweek next week.

It doesn't last long anyway, by 144 hours (the end of next week) all 3 main NWP models have us back in a fresher westerly airflow;

The Azores High Pressure cell remaining in the err........ Azores (the EC Det looks like it's trying to do something with it but further frames show it doesn't ) and a changeable westerly airflow continues to dominate our weather.

So more rain for some, more showers for some, interspersed by some sunshine for some. Typical UK June weather.

Onto the longer term then and I have to be honest, I see little change into the 6 - 15 day time frame. The GEFS for Aberdeen;

And GEFS for London;

show little change in the SLP values, with just tentative hints of something slightly drier further south. It is worth noting however, the GFS 0z Op was on the lower and wetter side of the mean, so there is a good chance the 06z and 12z output might show something a little better, especially for the south. You can see the Jet Stream continues to direct itself into the UK at the end of next week;

giving the Azores HP little change of moving north/north east into the UK. This giving us a very typical EC Det 240 hour chart like this;

Spot the difference hey!!!!! A look at the EC Mean at 192 hours;

and again at 240 hours;

shows little change except for the fact the Azores HP could ridge that little further north into the Mid Atlantic and give us a cooler north westerly airflow. This could be in response to a weakening Jet Stream;

Perhaps a Mid Atlantic ridge come towards months end? Certainly support for that scenario in the 500mb anomaly charts;

Heights to our west and heights to our east with a weak, shallow trough near the UK. This also shown quite clearly on both the 240 hour NAEFS mean;

and the 384 hour NAEFS mean;

So there is some pretty good support for this scenario long term. Note how weak the Jet is on the NAEFS output at 384 hours;

It's none exsistant. The CFS v2 outlook projections on rainfall show below average signals starting to emerge come months end and into the start of July;

Again, suggestive of heights in the Atlantic. With the MJO showing signs of moving into phase 8, albeit weak, tus would also support heights in the Atlantic and with time, over Western Europe;

It is in a weak cycle, so how much influence this would have on the upper level northern hemispheric pattern I don't know.

So, we have all the long range signs pointing to something broadly similiar for once. That is a form of mid Atlantic ridge and heights to our east with a trough to our north. This would broadly suggest to me below average rainfall the further south and west you are and nearer average rainfall the further north and east you are. Some tentatively positive signs for both Glastonbury and Wimbledon then?

And finally, a quick look at the EC long range ens from last night. (will be out by the time this mornings are out).

You can see good support for the largely average to below average temperature regime for the next 2 weeks at least;

but with rainfall slowly reducing as time goes on though;

The London ens do show some support for the GFS "plume graze" next week, so the possibility of a day or two of above average, rather warm temperatures here is plausible;

Most rainfall however, over the next 10 days, looks to be towards the west and more especially north western parts as shown below;

Don't take those figures to heart, they will change, I've just included then to show the broad expected distribution of rainfall over the next week or so. No one immune, the north west perhaps seeing rather a lot.

A quick look at the monthly EC ens show temperatures perhaps rising to something more consistently nearer average as we start July, indictive of things starting to settle down in the west maybe?

no strong signal in the rainfall suite, with average amounts being shown;

A look at the CFS v2 outlook into July does show temperatures getting up to average and a bit above average values into July;

Which could be a sign that we lose the north westerly airflow caused by the forecast mid Atlantic ridge and some thing of a warmer direction reaches our shores, meaning that we also lose the forecast mid Atlantic ridge, but to where? The UK maybe?

FWIW, the CFS seasonal outlook for summer as a whole shows average temperature values broadly speaking over the 3 months;

Something which i personally agree with currently. A typical UK summer coming up? Not a bad one and not a good one? Anyway, that's speculation on my part.

So to summarise;

- the next 10 - 14 days look broadly similiar to what we have now with little change. There is the chance if some rather warm, above average, humid temperatures for a couple of days in the South East next week, but otherwise temperatures for the next couple of weeks look to remain at average to slightly below average values (typically 15c - 21c dependant on location). Rainfall looks broadly average too, maybe a bit above in the north west. All of us seeing some at some point.

- beyond the next couple of weeks, come months end and into the start of July there is reasonable support for a mid Atlantic ridge to set up. This would transfer, IMO, the wetter of any weather towards the north with the best of the drier weather towards the south and west. However, with the likely north westerly flow associated with this scenario, temperatures wouldn't be anything special, broadly remaining average to slightly below

- I do agree with Snowking for July however. That's all I will say there.

Now, where's my bacon sandwich?

Edited June 15, 2013 by AWD

[johnholmes]

Hi guys,

Sorry for a quick non uk related question, but can anyone with greater access to data and with superior knowledge give a view on how much consensus there is on the Iberian trough moving east across the Balearics at t72.

The big 3 models all appear to take it in this direction but I notice the gem and navgem don't. Any views? Wondering whether I should be packing t shirts and shorts or umbrella and wellies for next week!

this gives as accurate a guide to what the upper air pattern is going to be 10 days down the line, all 3 have consistently shown this pattern with the upper trough tending to elongate as it moves slowly east. Thus the area of your interest in on the western side of the upper trough. At this time of year that should reduce the frequency of any instability in that area, probably drier with a fair amount of sunshine, hardly hot by their standards but probably more so by UK standards even in Worcestershire which did quite well in the last settled spell.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited June 15, 2013 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

The latest met office update today is mostly unsettled but it does say this

 

There is a small chance of very warm, humid conditions and thundery showers in the southeast initially, otherwise near-normal temperatures are expected generally, before becoming rather cool in the west.

 

This has of course been hinted at before from the models GFS 06z has however removed this again and has brought temperatures back down to average in the SE

 

 

It still looks like a NW / SE split will develop coolest and wettest in the north west whilst the south and east have the best chance of seeing the warmest and driest conditions

[Frosty.]

Well, it wasn't easy but I managed to cherry pick a few nice charts on the Gfs 06z, there is a lot of sunshine and showers type weather in the next 7-10 days but beyond that the azores/atlantic anticyclone might pay us a rare visit, however, the nice weather still appears to be highly unreliable and may only arrive in short bursts only to be followed by yet more cool and unsettled weather.

[stainesbloke]

Well the model output goes from bad to worse, no hot plume for the SE now, surprise surprise. Yet more dreary, cold, cloudy NW'ly rubbish for the foreseeable. Ooh joy!

[damianslaw]

'Return of the June westerlies' springs to mind today... the outlook for the foreseeable future is a very changeable one, with spells of rain from the west interspersed with drier showery interludes and temperatures often around average, but below under the rain and showers especially in the north - a rather uninspiring prospect if you are looking for lengthy dry warm sunny conditions.

 

Now is the time of year when the atlantic traditionally begins to stir from its late winter-spring hibernation and it all now depends on the position of the jet in terms of whether its energy is transferred to the north of the country or directly over it - alas the jet is as has been the case for the last 6 summers still on a more southerly course, hence at least for the time being, the atlantic energy is unfortunately going to be transferred across the country. The azores high sits languishing to our SW and thanks to the position of the jet is forced to stay in its current residence having made a shortlived holiday to our shores earlier this month.

 

One positive is that the current outlook is a far cry from the washout scenarios of June 2007, 2008 and second half of June 2012 in particular - yes we will all see some rain in the days to come, but not trifling amounts, and thanks to a relatively dry year so far, the ground is not quite as saturated as it would otherwise be, hence there is no signal for any significant flooding.. lets hope we are spared another summer with extensive damaging floods.

[Frosty.]

Well the model output goes from bad to worse, no hot plume for the SE now, surprise surprise. Yet more dreary, cold, cloudy NW'ly rubbish for the foreseeable. Ooh joy!

cheer up it will soon be winter

[bradymk]

As the model output is pretty poor at the moment, I thought I would try and brighten up the mood and the latest Korean long range forecast update certainly does that.

 

This chart is for Sea level pressure anomaly for the 3 months, J A & S. Overall for July the Korean is going for lower than normal pressure to the North and Higher than normal pressure to the south with the UK in between but northern parts in lower than normal. This would be a north/south split with the driest/brightest/warmest conditions in the South with wetter/cooler conditions in the north. This is for the month as a whole though so the pattern may vary slightly throughout the month.

 

But then comes the interesting forecast for August. The signal for August is huge and shows a strong signal for lower pressure to the North of the UK with a strong signal for higher pressure smack bang over the UK. With August still being a fair while a way, that is a strong signal that the KMA is picking up on. Would definitely throw a few summer forecasts out the window and would be a lovely end to summer, especially with September following similarly. 

 

This is not a forecast by any means, just me scanning through long range forecasts and this one caught my eye. I am not sure on the record of the Korean model but will be interesting to see if this idea gathers pace on other long range models in future updates. Interestingly, last months update for the highly rated JMA long range, showed the idea of higher heights over the UK in August. This will update in coming days so will be interesting to see if this develops.

[Frosty.]

There is really nothing to moan about if you live in the southeast of england since the lions share of fine and warm spells will be exclusively for you, once you start to move away from this southeastern zone and head towards the north and west, the outlook becomes progressively worse with an unsettled prevailing theme although with some drier and brighter weather, even the coolest and most unsettled areas, n.ireland & western and northern scotland will have brighter and drier weather between the conveyor belt of atlantic depressions brushing across northern britain but southern uk and especially the southeast, just like last summer, looks like having decent summer weather more often than not with a northwest-southeast split and the jet aligned more towards wnw/ese with the azores/atlantic anticyclone regularly extending a ridge across the south & east, the people who have a right to moan are the ones in the northwest of the uk where summer weather looks minimal until sometime next month at least.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[Tony27]

There is really nothing to moan about if you live in the southeast of england since the lions share of fine and warm spells will be exclusively for you, once you start to move away from this zone to the north and west, the outlook becomes progressively worse with an unsettled prevailing theme although with some drier and brighter weather, even the coolest and most unsettled areas, n.ireland & western and northern scotland will have brighter and drier weather between the conveyor belt of atlantic depressions brushing across northern britain but southern uk and especially the southeast, just like last summer, looks like having decent summer weather more often than not with a northwest-southeast split and the jet aligned more towards wnw/ese with the azores/atlantic anticyclone regularly extending a ridge across the south & east, the people who have a right to moan are the ones in the northwest of the uk where summer weather looks minimal until sometime next month at least.

nothing to moan about? lol are you trying to wind folk up in the southeast

 

it is cloudy with showers and 13c here, it is not fine and dry, or humid with sun and showers like you always seem to predict, like i have said a few times to you i am still waiting for this good weather that you have been predicting for the southeast for weeks now

 

just because the 500mb charts show a bit of orange in the south dosen't mean it will be fine, sunny and warm, more likely just cloudy and dull with maybe a few sunny intervals and average temps, this week has been mostly cloudy but dry here until today as the fronts just left a legacy of cloud when they passed through, this is very common for this part of the world, i have said a few times that it is a myth that the GFS undercooks temps, many days over the last couple of weeks it has got temps wrong for my area and some others, i base that down to it predicting sunshine and i haven't had much of it, hence the lower than predicted temps

 

edit sun is trying to break through, summer is here horray,

 

joking aside the way you post you make out as if the southeast is a part of the med, i may sound harsh but a forum is about debate

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tony27

[Frosty.]

nothing to moan about? lol are you trying to wind folk up in the southeast

 

 

 

No i'm stating a fact, the southeast will have the best of the weather in the coming weeks with the warmest, driest and sunniest weather and shorter cooler unsettled blips as you would expect, being closest to the near continent and being better placed for any azores ridging influence, it's the northwest of the uk where it will be generally unsettled and cooler, as usual.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[Skip Spence]

No i'm stating a fact, the southeast will have the best of the weather in the coming weeks with the warmest, driest and sunniest weather and shorter cooler unsettled blips as you would expect, being closest to the near continent and being better placed for any azores ridging influence, it's the northwest of the uk where it will be generally unsettled and cooler, as usual.

You're not stating a fact, you're making a prediction. The weather in the coming weeks hasn't happened yet.

[Frosty.]

 

 it is not fine and dry, or humid with sun and showers like you always seem to predict, like i have said a few times to you i am still waiting for this good weather that you have been predicting for the southeast for weeks now

 

 

I don't predict, I just comment on what the models are showing and take special notice of what the experts say, so you should blame the models instead of me, actually, don't even blame the models, just blame our fickle climate.

You're not stating a fact, you're making a prediction. The weather in the coming weeks hasn't happened yet.

i'm stating what the met office say, that's good enough for me thanks.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[Tony27]

No i'm stating a fact, the southeast will have the best of the weather in the coming weeks with the warmest, driest and sunniest weather and shorter cooler unsettled blips as you would expect, being closest to the near continent and being better placed for any azores ridging influence, it's the northwest of the uk where it will be generally unsettled and cooler, as usual.

well you will get it right one day due to the law of averages, but like i said seeing a bit of high pressure ridge close to the south dosen't mean it will be warm and sunny, more likely cloudy with a few sunny intervals at times maybe the far south will see better weather but what about east anglia or the midlands? they are neither the southeast or northwest, and if it does stay cloudy i highly doubt we will see temps of 20c 21c like the GFS is predicting, it has predicted many times 20c recently and i have had one or two days of it, this isn't a moan about my weather its just to clear up the stereotype that people in the north think it is always nice in the south when it isn't, of course we don't get the constant rain like scotland but we do see plenty of days with slate grey skies and below average temps

[Tony27]

GFS 12z is an improvement for tuesday with widespread temps in the low twenties across the midlands and the south, as the high is further north, is this just another cruel tease though, then a last minute downgrade will happen as per?

[Summer Sun]

I agree with Frosty I also expect the SE to see the best of the weather of the coming weeks this doesn't mean wall to wall sunshine but this part of the UK has the highest chance of seeing warmer and drier conditions when compared to other parts of the UK as can often happen in westerly set-ups the further east you are the greater the chance you have of seeing limited rainfall as the systems often fizzle out 

[Tony27]

I agree with Frosty I also expect the SE to see the best of the weather of the coming weeks this doesn't mean wall to wall sunshine but this part of the UK has the highest chance of seeing warmer and drier conditions when compared to other parts of the UK as can often happen in westerly set-ups the further east you are the greater the chance you have of seeing limited rainfall as the systems often fizzle out 

thing is though we don't see many westerly set ups in summer, we see plenty of northerly or easterly setups and sometimes the south does worse than the north if the jet stream is tracking across the south, but i agree this week the warmest temps will be in the south but whether we actually see sunshine is another matter

 

wednesday sees a warm day for most of england not just the southeast with low to mid twenties, its our turn now to see warm sunshine, well i can only speak for myself, but i will remain cautious as the models have a habit of teasing us like this upgrade downgrade upgrade downgrade

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tony27

[Methuselah]

Any chance that we can reduce the amount of moaning? After all, there ain't much we can do about the weather... 

[Tony27]

20c in yorkshire on monday and 19c in london, 22c in london on thursday and 21c in yorkshire, who says it will only be warm in the southeast, but in general a better run for england on this run, sadly scotland and ireland don't join in as they are too close to low pressure 

 

sorry for the sarcasm but it won't just be warm in the southeast like some are saying, even some previous runs had warmth in other parts of the country

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tony27

[stainesbloke]

No i'm stating a fact, the southeast will have the best of the weather in the coming weeks with the warmest, driest and sunniest weather and shorter cooler unsettled blips as you would expect, being closest to the near continent and being better placed for any azores ridging influence, it's the northwest of the uk where it will be generally unsettled and cooler, as usual.

The SE will get the least worst weather you mean, surely? I have yet to see evidence of good weather on any model run. Its currently 15C here after a deluge and gale force winds. I shudder to think how awful it must be in Scotland....