Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[J10]

Latest Glasto blog out now, to me the pattern wasn't looking too bad, after the coming weekend, with the chance of some T Storms for southern areas next week, witha  mini plume, a decent trade of in my eyes.

 

A little more unsettled for a time over the weekend but not too bad for southern areas (at least according to GFS) , with the GFS building pressure steadily for the SW thereafter, ECM also looking very similar up until T+168/192, but I was disappointed with ECM tonight at 216/240, as that would be more generally unsettled.

 

Glasto Blog link - includes pressure charts over next 2 weeks and detailed analysis

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4619-glastonbury-forecast-8-14th-june/

 

Latest Glasto Blog now out, Pressure always higher to the south and west, keeping the worst impact of any Atlantic systems away, interestingly both the op runs of both ECM and GFS look less settled than the ensembles means. It will be interesting to see which is right.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4621-glastonbury-forecast-9-15th-june/

Edited June 15, 2013 by Jackone

[ANYWEATHER]

Next week looks settled on most days for most areas and pleasantly warm, perhaps very warm and humid for a time in the southeast, it's much better output than the 00z with less risk of showers. Sorry but I feel your post is very misleading.

Well Ok, But I don't agree with You....   

[Methuselah]

20C seems plenty comfortable, to me...

[Downpour]

thing is though we don't see many westerly set ups in summer, we see plenty of northerly or easterly setups and sometimes the south does worse than the north if the jet stream is tracking across the south, but i agree this week the warmest temps will be in the south but whether we actually see sunshine is another matterwednesday sees a warm day for most of england not just the southeast with low to mid twenties, its our turn now to see warm sunshine, well i can only speak for myself, but i will remain cautious as the models have a habit of teasing us like this upgrade downgrade upgrade downgrade

"We don't see many westerly setups in summer"Erm - we do... That's a very common wind source in summer. And Gavin is right, the SE often doesn't do too bad out of "unsettled" westerly regimes as the showers fizzle out before they get here.I don't include today in that - some impressively poky showers made it through, albeit in fairly warm winds and interspersed with some nice sunny spells.

[Tony27]

"We don't see many westerly setups in summer"Erm - we do... That's a very common wind source in summer. And Gavin is right, the SE often doesn't do too bad out of "unsettled" westerly regimes as the showers fizzle out before they get here.I don't include today in that - some impressively poky showers made it through, albeit in fairly warm winds and interspersed with some nice sunny spells.

yeah it used to be, now we get our fair share of northwesterly, westerly or easterly set ups, or just cyclonic showery troughs where most places see showers, plus even if we don't see showers it just stays cloudy and boring, its not usually the temps that bother me its the lack of sun, if it was 19c 20c with clear blue sky that would be fine, but often it is windy and mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals so 19c just feels plain average and it don't feel great even if its not terrible, but that is what average is i guess in this country

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tony27

[Tony27]

20C seems plenty comfortable, to me...

yes if it was a mainly clear day, but if there are slate grey skies its no use really a bit like tuesday here last week

 

Ugh, more ghastly wind and cold.

thankfully that is in FI and can change, however those synoptics are common so it is plausible it will happen, unlike when we see super heatwaves FI charts as that is not common and there is good reason to be sceptical of it happening

[Methuselah]

yes if it was a mainly clear day, but if there are slate grey skies its no use really a bit like tuesday here last week

 

thankfully that is in FI and can change, however those synoptics are common so it is plausible it will happen, unlike when we see super heatwaves FI charts as that is not common and there is good reason to be sceptical of it happening

Stop yer moaning!

[Tony27]

well that told me, i should be grateful i don't live in the northern isles right, even though i do see northern isle like temps sometimes haha

on we go to the 18z i hope its very drunk tonight 

[Geordiesnow]

Quite a bit of uncertainty next week on how that shallow feature will behave and how far North it gets but the likely hood is that the far NW is likely to be under the influence of cooler weather from the Atlantic whilst there is the potential of some rain coming up from France with alot of warm air on the eastern flank which could flood into the UK whilst the middle part of the UK could be sunnier and in any sunshine, temps could get quite high but as I say, alot of uncertainty in the minor detail which could make a huge difference. 

 

Outlook could be a lot of worse imo and with low heights across Greenland likely to occur, the jet stream should not be diving too far Southwards but it may still be close enough for fronts to cross the country. 

[johnholmes]

off topic but that is a load of tosh, i used to live in northampton and that was never classed as the southeast in anyway, and last i heard yorkshire was northern england, plus even if the midlands is southeast brtain i have not heard posters mention that they will see some warmth just the southeast, presuming places such as london. essex, kent, surrey etc and as i said GFS clearly shows warmth in the midlands and even parts of wales

If you read his post carefully Tony he said BRITAIN when portioning the UK up nw-se?

[stainesbloke]

well that told me, i should be grateful i don't live in the northern isles right, even though i do see northern isle like temps sometimes hahaon we go to the 18z i hope its very drunk tonight

Hehe, lets hope so! Might be time to book a little trip to Spain or Greece just to see some sun and feel warm in a t shirt Think I'm boring myself with my moaning, I get soooo frustrated with this crap weather though, really gets me down and I'm quite a cheerful bloke most of the time. I totally get your point about cloud, 20C would be nice if there wasn't any! But the grey skies/strong winds have been ruining the last few summers and I've had enough.

[Tony27]

well the 18z is paralytic tonight big upgrade in the short term, all this talk of the southeast getting the warmth from one or two others, but it seems like most of england will see high temps esp by midweek but as i said the GFS is probably hammered it is the weekend

[Supacell]

GFS 18z looks to bring some very warm air into most of England by Tuesday with some high CAPE values, but unlikely to translate to storms for us due to being under a ridge of high pressure. Looks to have been on the wine by Wednesday with a 30c+ heatwave, although this has been showing up off and on for a few runs now.

[Geordiesnow]

Don't understand the moaning at all, I think its a been reasonable start to the summer season and the outlook looks reasonable too me, 18Z shows some potential for a 1-2 day hot spell before a thundery breakdown although as I said earlier, the models are struggling with the positioning of the trough in France so its too early to say what will happen for certain apart from the general pattern that there will be some frontal cloud in the far NW where it be cooler and some frontal cloud in the South from the shallow front with the middle slice of the UK likely to be sunny and quite warm with fairly warm uppers over the UK. 

 

I think the 18Z is the extreme set up of what is likely to happen but the potential is there. Aslong any trough don't get stuck over the UK then I won't mind this run at all. 

[stainesbloke]

GFS 18z looks to bring some very warm air into most of England by Tuesday with some high CAPE values, but unlikely to translate to storms for us due to being under a ridge of high pressure. Looks to have been on the wine by Wednesday with a 30c+ heatwave, although this has been showing up off and on for a few runs now.

It's plausible, there will be some hot and humid air moving N through W Europe, hopefully it can reach at least some of the UK for a day or two. May trigger some decent storms as fronts pass by, something to watch carefully.

[Tony27]

Hehe, lets hope so! Might be time to book a little trip to Spain or Greece just to see some sun and feel warm in a t shirt Think I'm boring myself with my moaning, I get soooo frustrated with this crap weather though, really gets me down and I'm quite a cheerful bloke most of the time. I totally get your point about cloud, 20C would be nice if there wasn't any! But the grey skies/strong winds have been ruining the last few summers and I've had enough.

you will cheer up when you see the 18z but it is very drunk tonight, high twenties maybe even 30c for us,

 

by the 00z it will be sober and will probably downgrade to normal warmth like 23c though that is still fine of course if its sunny

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tony27

[Supacell]

It's plausible, there will be some hot and humid air moving N through W Europe, hopefully it can reach at least some of the UK for a day or two. May trigger some decent storms as fronts pass by, something to watch carefully.

 

Yes over the last few days this brief hot and eventually thundery spell has been showing as either tantalisingly close or over at least part of the UK. I'd bank this run, if only it weren't the 18z.

[Milhouse]

Well i didnt see that coming

 

[stainesbloke]

Don't understand the moaning at all, I think its a been reasonable start to the summer season and the outlook looks reasonable too me, 18Z shows some potential for a 1-2 day hot spell before a thundery breakdown although as I said earlier, the models are struggling with the positioning of the trough in France so its too early to say what will happen for certain apart from the general pattern that there will be some frontal cloud in the far NW where it be cooler and some frontal cloud in the South from the shallow front with the middle slice of the UK likely to be sunny and quite warm with fairly warm uppers over the UK. I think the 18Z is the extreme set up of what is likely to happen but the potential is there. Aslong any trough don't get stuck over the UK then I won't mind this run at all.

I've moaned, even though the first few days of June were sunny it was chilly out of the sun. Since then it's been awful, with the extended outlook grim. It's has been quite dry, yes, but persistently grey, cold and very windy. Not usable weather in any shape or form.

[stainesbloke]

you will cheer up when you see the 18z but it is very drunk tonight, high twenties maybe even 30c for us,by the 00z it will be sober and will probably downgrade to normal warmth like 23c though that is still fine of course if its sunny

30C would be lovely! Though I'll take 23C if its sunny See what tomorrows charts bring, that trough seems to be causing a few headaches lol.

[Tamara]

GFS 18z looks to bring some very warm air into most of England by Tuesday with some high CAPE values, but unlikely to translate to storms for us due to being under a ridge of high pressure. Looks to have been on the wine by Wednesday with a 30c+ heatwave, although this has been showing up off and on for a few runs now.

Bearing in mind this is not exactly my cup of tea ..I think in view of the ECM this evening and agreement in the ensembles, then the chances of what you describe happening, whilst not certain, are increasing as the pendulum swings one way and then the other.

 

Something of a col situation is developing early/midweek between the thundery low pressure complex very close by on the continent and attempted cooler maritime air returning from the atlantic. Overall, the model output tonight wants to delay the cooler air longer, and so with those very high upper temperatures now modelled well within a reliable time period virtually on the doorstep, it looks quite possible that the hot humid loaded gun scenario could happen *she says totally relaxed and fine with the world*

 

There is a greater number of EPS members than this morning that keep the +15 isotherm close very close to the SE of the UK at least till midweek and the +10 isotherm well into central UK

 

 

ECM upper temp ensemble mean for Weds

 

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[nitro_deluxe]

35c in Antwerp next week?

[Tony27]

nice run but lets not get carried away until its at T24 or T36, its like in winter when we see snow chances implode at very short notice, this is a better run as even when we lose the heat it stays warmish until at least the weekend for most of england, recently like last week at T72 i was supposed too see 21c according to the charts and i ended up with 13c and slate grey skies

Edited June 15, 2013 by Tony27

[nitro_deluxe]

It'll be gone by tomorrow, probably!

[harryc]

It'll be gone by tomorrow, probably!

More than likely unfortunately .