Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Eskimo]

The estofex forecast is absolutely disgusting, it's so dissapointing!

If it's any consolation, I can't remember when estofex was last correct. They are a brilliant guideline but I would never take them for gospel. 

Edited June 17, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[PolarWarsaw]

Estofex is normally very accurate too, not good news. Enjoy the odd cracks of thunder. This week at this point in time looks as though it'l be a soggy mess from an IMBY point of view.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Put me in a bad mood now, could just go to bed as I do have school.

[Hathers]

I'm sorry I think estofex have got this wrong. There is some potential there tomorrow that's why we should be under at least a 15% risk.

[weatherobsuk]

For many in the south the overnight temps will be as high as todays max here in the north, the 'line' is the divide between drier air moving out across the NE currently and the continental moisture advected up from the Med and Bay of Biscay. Its also important not to forget that by 4am this time of year the sun is already starting to have an added effect on the temps so any clear skies ahead of the front will be soon heating up with CAPE aswell as the forcing mechanism driving the front adding to the late morning's surface convection potential.

[Nick F]

Do you expect them to electrify because not much is happening right now?

 

It's possible, as cloud tops undergo nocturnal cooling and thus more likely to become electrified. Maybe a few flashes and rumbles for the Mids later tonight?

Edited June 17, 2013 by Nick F

[Allseasons-Si]

Why isnt that echo off the north coast of spain not electrified,it's heavy enough.

 

EDIT:just started now,plus a sferic in the swindon area.

Edited June 17, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Chris K]

Was hoping for a level 3 'extremely severe' circle over Bristol....ah well

 

In all seriousness I don't think it's worth the tiredness for me to stay up tonight. I'll open up the window so that I can still miss any thunder if it happened, because it doesn't ever seem to wake me up....

[nitro_deluxe]

From memory - some of the best UK storms I've seen - have had a band of rain, albeit fairly narrow, sporadic, sometimes convective in nature..before the main event arrived? Not once but several times I have noticed this.

Edited June 17, 2013 by triple_x1

[biddie]

i think wednesday and thursday will be the big storm days especially thursday. mores the pity for royal ascot

[Nick F]

I wouldn't take the Estofex forecasts so literally, they often omit potential for the UK for some reason, perhaps because they are concentrating on the better potential over mainland Europe and haven't the time to include the UK?

 

I've already covered what may happen tomorrow for us, not guaranteeing that everyone will get a storm though!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Was hoping for a level 3 'extremely severe' circle over Bristol....ah well

 

In all seriousness I don't think it's worth the tiredness for me to stay up tonight. I'll open up the window so that I can still miss any thunder if it happened, because it doesn't ever seem to wake me up....

True fact, I'll wait till midnight then I'll set my alarm for 2am and then we'll see from there.

[samadamsuk]

I haven't seen anything that convinces me that this line has built to its full potential though personaly - who's to say it doesn't keep building and we start to see sferics ? - It's not far off it it can produce torrential rain.

[ZONE 51]

Interesting looking at the temperatures north and south sides of that thin thundery band. cooler north of line warmer humid south of the line 

Edited June 17, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[samadamsuk]

saying that, my storms now weakened lol

[craig1uk]

Well I went out to 'see' the line that came over MK, no structure, no lightning just a soggy camera, you have to try though right

[Ben Sainsbury]

It is true that the cell near Alderney was formed over water?

[samadamsuk]

none of its surface based I believe -

[nitro_deluxe]

It is true that the cell near Alderney was formed over water?

Looked a fair beast on radar! Any members that way on

[Chris K]

 

 

That is all.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Looked a fair beast on radar! Any members that way on

Well It's coming my way if it reaches the south coast.

[Chris K]

Not much else to say really

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Line of showers are decaying now, good night storm starvers;)!

Not much else to say really

 

Bristol.png

You know what i pointed that out early, typical weather

[ZONE 51]

I advise to read what Nick F say's, his forecasts are something I enjoy reading as many of you do and gives me a lot more confidence on the storm risk when I see a storm forecast issued.

 

 Just because Estofx don't get the beer cans open for you doesn't mean no storms where you are, a 15% is at least some lightning though as far as I know, I expect an update Tuesday from them.. 

[Marcus_surfer]

Everything starting to weaken now