Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Marcus_surfer]

There's that absolutely delicious smell of thunder outside a warm calm before the storm atmosphere too.

[Staffordshire]

Hopefully things continue to move north, might be worth a late one.

youre not the only one mate

[TheToastPeople]

woah something good is on the radar all of a sudden!!

[Staffordshire]

First distant flash of summer 2013 here in Cardiff! I have a further maths exam in the morning, damn!

you should sleep mate, if you get a better grade on that you could get a better job and move to france and have the full force of these storms, just think that eh, finished all mine for the summer :-)

[thesnowman]

check out 50 miles east of paris -! mega storm

[Harry]

lol and all us in sussex and kent miss out again lol

My dear fellow I'm going to arrange for you to be slapped with a wet fish lol. Tonight is an 'odd thundery downpour' scenario so vast majority will see nothing. Few cells tipped to develop tomorrow afternoon, plus potential for imports which may erupt over France. Our main period of interest is really 06z Wednesday to 18z Thursday and possibly beyond, with showers, thunderstorms and thundery rain, both imported and homegrown, a possibility. Like you if we get to Friday without seeing at least a few flashes, some rumbles and some decent cloud structures I too will feel hard done by.btonight though is a relative non event. Try and be patient and hopefully Mother Nature will treat us after what seems an age of inactivity. Edited June 17, 2013 by Harry

[Allseasons-Si]

Hopefully things continue to move north, might be worth a late one.

I am glad that i am on afters.

 

whats the chances of it getting up here ,anyone.

[MrSunshine]

I am glad that i am on afters.

 

whats the chances of it getting up here ,anyone.

 

 

Slim to none I'm afraid!

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 2013-06-17 22:06:28

 

Valid: 18/06/2013 00z to 19/06/2013 00z
Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ...

Synopsis
Upper low, which has cut off from the main belt of upper westerlies across the North Atlantic, will become slow moving across Iberia, the Bay of Biscay and SW France over the next days. A warm front, currently parallel to the south coast, will lift north across England and Wales during Tuesday, introducing warm and humid airmass from the near continent, while a cold front moves N and E across SW UK by 12z Tuesday.

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ...

Although surface/boundary layer will likely remain stable overnight, a warm/moist Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) characterised by steep lapse rates will advect north ahead of surface warm front and the resultant isentropic uplift of these warm moist layers above the cooler and drier boundary layer will continue to produce some elevated showers and thunderstorms overnight and through Tuesday morning. These showers and storms perhaps drifting in across south Wales, The Midlands and E Anglia during Tuesday. Storms, though high-based, may bring high rainfall rates in a short space of time, bringing a risk of localised flooding and may perhaps be accompanied by hail and gusty winds.

Brighter skies with insolation following this area of mid-level activity heading north ahead of the surface warm front will allow temperatures to rise towards the mid 20s degrees celsius across SE England and E Anglia, which combined with increasing dew points, may allow sufficient CAPE to develop and thus potential for isolated to scattered surface-based thunderstorms to develop. 0-6km directional shear and upper speed shear will be rather strong across the SE, so any storms could organise into bowing line segments with a small risk of large hail, strong wind gusts and localised flooding. However, given uncertainties over whether surface-based storms will initiate, will refrain from a categorical risk of severe weather. Otherwise, there will be a continued risk of some isolated elevated storms moving north through the afternoon and bringing some localised flooding.

 

Can also be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited June 17, 2013 by Nick F

[Eskimo]

Love the way it just develops 5 miles to my North....actually it could benefit me, better to see a light show from a distance than be in one. 

[Convective]

Can't wait for this band to reach Chris R in Merseyside and me over here on the Isle of Man tomorrow morning.......!   

[Ben Sainsbury]

Still nothing.

[Harry]

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 2013-06-17 22:06:28

 

convmap_180613.jpg

Valid: 18/06/2013 00z to 19/06/2013 00zHeadline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ...

Synopsis

Upper low, which has cut off from the main belt of upper westerlies across the North Atlantic, will become slow moving across Iberia, the Bay of Biscay and SW France over the next days. A warm front, currently parallel to the south coast, will lift north across England and Wales during Tuesday, introducing warm and humid airmass from the near continent, while a cold front moves N and E across SW UK by 12z Tuesday.

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ...

Although surface/boundary layer will likely remain stable overnight, a warm/moist Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) characterised by steep lapse rates will advect north ahead of surface warm front and the reslultant isentropic uplift of these warm moist layers above the cooler and drier boundary layer will continue to produce some elevated showers and thunderstorms overnight and through Tuesday morning. These showers and storms perhaps drifting in across south Wales and The Midlands and E Anglia during Tuesday. Storms, though high-based, may bring high rainfall rates in a short space of time, bringing a risk of localised flooding and may perhaps be accompanied by hail and gusty winds.

Brighter skies with insolation following this area of mid-level activity heading north ahead of the surface warm front will allow temperatures to rise towards the mid 20s degrees celsius across SE England and E Anglia, which combined with increasing dew points, may allow sufficient CAPE to develop and thus potential for isolated to scattered surface-based thunderstorms to develop. 0-6km directional shear and upper speed shear will be rather strong across the SE, so any storms could organise into bowing line segments with a small risk of large hail, strong wind gusts and localised flooding. However, given uncertainties over whether surface-based storms will initiate, will refrain from a categorical risk of severe weather. Otherwise, there will be a continued risk of some isolated elevated storms moving north through the afternoon and bringing some localised flooding.

 

Can also be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Good start

[Allseasons-Si]

Love the way it just develops 5 miles to my North....actually it could benefit me, better to see a light show from a distance than be in one. 

Yes,i like to see the cloud tops flash and show all the meanfullness of the storm,it's been a fair few years since i saw something like that.

Edited June 17, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Ben Sainsbury]

Sferic off the coast of Truro.

[paul m]

Can't wait for this band to reach Chris R in Merseyside and me over here on the Isle of Man tomorrow morning.......!   

JOG ON i want it all

[Chris.R]

yes Convective, I bloody hope it actually makes it this far, got a good feeling about this though tonight. don't know what to do though, want to stay up and watch what happenes with the line, but i'm in the college

recording studio with a friend tomorrow so I want to get a bit of sleep. Oh well I guess I'll just go with the flow.

[Wilxy]

Still nothing.

Don't get your hopes up wait for a bit yet.

[samadamsuk]

that cell east of chippenham is directly downwind from me here in Cirencester - come to daddy!  -

ChrisR, sleep outside - your bound to get waken up by the rain if it does start -

[Cheshire Freeze]

yes Convective, I bloody hope it actually makes it this far, got a good feeling about this though tonight. don't know what to do though, want to stay up and watch what happenes with the line, but i'm in the collegerecording studio with a friend tomorrow so I want to get a bit of sleep. Oh well I guess I'll just go with the flow.

 

Nothing will get this far north. Go to bed

[MP-R]

Was it supposed to be happening as quick as this? I thought this line wasn't supposed to get going until 3-4am.

Brief intense downpour has now stopped but no lightning seen yet.

[Chris.R]

upwind?

[Allseasons-Si]

that cell east of chippenham is directly downwind from me here in Cirencester - come to daddy!  -

ChrisR, sleep outside - your bound to get waken up by the rain if it does start -

I hope it goes bang for you sam,then blow it up this way please

[Supacell]

At the rate it is moving I would estimate the line to arrive in Derby by about 7-8am in the morning, which ties in with the BBC prediction. They said there could the odd rumble of thunder from it.

[slinky1989]

Just had some light rain here with really large drops. Sounded loud against the skylight window.

No lightning or thunder though.