Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Hathers]

That squall line has its first lightning strike.

[samadamsuk]

best way is never to be too set on getting results imo, then its a pleasure watching a situation unfold, instead of a depressing let down. Very nice cell in the channel that's popped up! - looks to bea heading between Weymouth and seaton eventualy  -

[Wilxy]

Its bed time got to be up at 5:30 for work anyway so il have a look then good luck to everybody tomorrow.

[Allseasons-Si]

There is a new band of ppn that's popped up from not's to whales.

Edited June 17, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Staffordshire]

Formed literally over my house and considering its moving north i wont catch anything unless it back builds

[Cheshire Freeze]

There is a new band of ppn that's popped up from not's to whales.

 

Yeah, have to watch those whales, crafty buggers.

[paul m]

Yeah, have to watch those whales, crafty buggers.

Whale watchers as well as storm watchers eh

[paul m]

First line of ppn seems to be breaking up

[Allseasons-Si]

Can't see this line electrifying, NMM showed it pepping up and then dissolving over Northampton. 

you was right PS

[PolarWarsaw]

Think we can name Chance 1 as a bit of a did then.

[Sprites]

Its nothing like a gipsy.

Think we can name Chance 1 as a bit of a did then.

[VillagePlank]

Not forgetting Weds, of course!

 

[weatherobsuk]

Coming up to 3.40am now, absolute squat on the RADAR since that line fizzled out around 12.30am other than the occasional anaprop return its been pretty much watching anything on the IR and refilling the coffee mug. At least the sun will be up soon and getting work to those CAPE values.

 

Camera batteries charged and will have a quick nap from 5am before awaiting whatever today brings.

[ZONE 51]

Today is I would say the first day of several interesting day's of weather. The storm risk eve/tonight much higher than last night.

The FAX charts are admirable! ( if you like thundery warm/hot weather )

[Supacell]

This mornings GFS run shows the inevitable shift east of tomorrows thundery potential and now looks to be only the SE that gets anything from it. Glad I didn't drive down to the SE last night for the no-show, thanks to those that advised me to stay put and hold off my trip until Wednesday. 

 

Possibility of something today closer to home here, will look through the charts now.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Supacell

[Southern Storm]

Just got woken by a very heavy shower, but no lightning, looks like things could be about to get interesting.

[ZONE 51]

Through today we should get some heavy showers setting off across England, as dew points rise to around 17-18 possibly risk of 20C, surface temperatures rise up to a very warm and humid feeling 21-24C in places those showers turning heavy, there is a risk that thunderstorms spark of as unstable air is in place and a fair amount of CAPE especially to east/se side of England say a line south of the Humber I think.

It going to get humid with warm nights. Hot for parts of the south particularly in the SE/EA mid-week.

Upper temperatures at 850hpa up to 15-16C(maybe 17C) as the warm plume moves up into SE/EA tonight, I am expecting some active thunderstorms to affect the southeast quarter of the UK, maybe further west and north were have to wait and see what happens tonight! I'm only stating the high risk zones here.

Wednesday night I expect to be more widespread storms across south UK moving into northern areas.

 

(some heavy local downpours have set off now in Dorset and S/W Hampshire looking at radar)

 

ESS

Edited June 18, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Chris.R]

couldn't make it up. met office now going for a dry few days with guess what: Northwesterly winds!!! no heat for us then with an onshore breeze.

[Supacell]

couldn't make it up. met office now going for a dry few days with guess what: Northwesterly winds!!! no heat for us then with an onshore breeze.

 

It does look like a total turn-around for the vast majority. N'ly winds and cloud May explain why Wednesdays thunderstorms are now not expected anywhere outside of London and the SE. Still time for it to change back I suppose. 

[Chris.R]

i know, it's stupid. Wrote on facebook that there was a chance of a plume with temps into the mid 20's, going to get bloody swamped by messages from people moaning about where the plume is and blaming me, as if I know better than the models. iI mean I did say a chance but people don't seem to understand the word chance it seems. You know who's fault this is don't you? Dyane "not to bad" bloomin Oxberry!!!!

Sorry rant over. :-)

Edited June 18, 2013 by Chris R

[Chris.R]

Someone give me my capitulls back please lol.

[ZONE 51]

Hey CR, still a chance of change yet storms could yet get to your area this week the risk is there things change as have been nothing is set (apart from France is likely to get storms...now that really is set!)

[Chris.R]

well yes i'd like to hope so but i'm struggling to at the moment going by our luck. Oh well I suppose the best storms often come unexpectedly. We may get some elervated stuff maybe, just nothing surfice based.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Chris R

[ZONE 51]

Here is some mobile phone pics I took last year to cheer you all up! 

[Chris.R]

Sorry posted twice, deleted. 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Chris R