Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[mushymanrob]

well... the heat should be with us for another week, but with changes.

 

as the high drifts to our north, then east (or northeast) we look like getting a short spell of easterlies which will peg the temps alittle on the eastern half of the uk, before a southeasterly draft brings warmer, more himid weather next week. thunder/showers chances increasing as the week goes on, bright milky skies taking over from blue. by the end of next week current runs agree on a breakdown as the cut off low traverses the country bringing alot of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.

 

afterwards?... well much has been said about a re-load, and thats what i personally want. but the gfs has other ideas, suggesting (yet again) that the atlantic will kick in, thus removing the current pattern. and the azores high becomes our foe (for heat lovers)

 

the mjo appears to suggest an eventual orbit into phase 1

 

which for july would suggest

 

so make the most of the heat, it looks like a gradual deterioration over the next week before we lose it, and theres no tangible sign of a quick return, of course this applies to fi, so theres time for change, but thats what the models are showing atm.

Edited July 18, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

well... the heat should be with us for another week, but with changes.

 

as the high drifts to our north, then east (or northeast) we look like getting a short spell of easterlies which will peg the temps alittle on the eastern half of the uk, before a southeasterly draft brings warmer, more himid weather next week. thunder/showers chances increasing as the week goes on, bright milky skies taking over from blue. by the end of next week current runs agree on a breakdown as the cut off low traverses the country bringing alot of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.

 

afterwards?... well much has been said about a re-load, and thats what i personally want. but the gfs has other ideas, suggesting (yet again) that the atlantic will kick in, thus removing the current pattern. and the azores high becomes our foe (for heat lovers)

Rtavn2401.png

 

the mjo appears to suggest an eventual orbit into phase 1

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

which for july would suggest

JulyPhase1500mb.gif

 

so make the most of the heat, it looks like a gradual deterioration over the next week before we lose it, and theres no tangible sign of a quick return, of course this applies to fi, so theres time for change, but thats what the models are showing atm.

Mushy I  would take the gfs low res with a pinch of salt, whatever it shows, the high res is all that matters and it's hot, hot, hot and humid.

[Gordon Webb]

Yep the GFS Low Res must be taken with a pinch of salt unless it's showing HOT HOT HOT AND HUMID , well that's a different matter altogether

Edited July 18, 2013 by Gordon Webb

[Anti-Mild]

well... the heat should be with us for another week, but with changes.

as the high drifts to our north, then east (or northeast) we look like getting a short spell of easterlies which will peg the temps alittle on the eastern half of the uk, before a southeasterly draft brings warmer, more himid weather next week. thunder/showers chances increasing as the week goes on, bright milky skies taking over from blue. by the end of next week current runs agree on a breakdown as the cut off low traverses the country bringing alot of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.

afterwards?... well much has been said about a re-load, and thats what i personally want. but the gfs has other ideas, suggesting (yet again) that the atlantic will kick in, thus removing the current pattern. and the azores high becomes our foe (for heat lovers)

Rtavn2401.png

the mjo appears to suggest an eventual orbit into phase 1

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

which for july would suggest

JulyPhase1500mb.gif

so make the most of the heat, it looks like a gradual deterioration over the next week before we lose it, and theres no tangible sign of a quick return, of course this applies to fi, so theres time for change, but thats what the models are showing atm.

Off topic but can someone provide me with a link to the site where I can create the images showing pressure anomalies (like the one mushy has posted for july). Thanks in advance!

[Man With Beard]

Charts all over the place by Tuesday. UKMO makes very little of the cut-off low, instead running low pressure straight towards us, probably the last very hot day with thunderstorms lurking

 

 

 

GFS still fairly hot/settled at this point

 

ECM not a million miles from GFS but makes much more of the cut-off low, both hotter air and thunderstorms a possibility. GEM is similar.

 

JMA - low pressure about to burst through, though it may go south and reinvigorate the high leading to hot weather especially in the north

 

One thing most models want to do (though not all) is to give us a less settled end to next week - though not a lot cooler. 

[Captain Shortwave]

I would take all output beyond T120 with a pinch of salt

 

 

The models really don't have a handle on this cut off low, whether it develops and where it will track.

rjbw was quicker on the trigger than me

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[storm1080]

At T135 on the now ageing 00z GFS run, that iberian low at T135 is so much lower in line with central spain, compared to previous run when it was level halfway up france...

Captain I agree about that low, after all, it's still over Newfoundland as we speak, though at T48 GFS seems pretty adamant it gets cut off...

[storm1080]

I think that if you're taking your kids on hols w/c 29th and you don't frequent here, you may be in for a shock. One thing having dry cooler 25c, but 20c and frequent showers.....(this is deep in GFS FI though)

[storm1080]

On the latest 00z GFS I struggle to see where the cutoff low actually ends up, seems to dissapear once it reaches Spain, it's the  area at the top of the azores high that concerns me more..

[ANYWEATHER]

Trends from both ecm and gfs show heat, rising humidity and pressure falling ,all in all a great ingredient for Thunderstorms next week! 

[Frosty.]

Yep the GFS Low Res must be taken with a pinch of salt unless it's showing HOT HOT HOT AND HUMID , well that's a different matter altogether

If you had read my sentence properly, you would have noted I said whatever it shows in the low res, hot or cool, low res gfs is generally junk beyond T+192 HOURS.

[shedhead]

well... the heat should be with us for another week, but with changes.

 

as the high drifts to our north, then east (or northeast) we look like getting a short spell of easterlies which will peg the temps alittle on the eastern half of the uk, before a southeasterly draft brings warmer, more himid weather next week. thunder/showers chances increasing as the week goes on, bright milky skies taking over from blue. by the end of next week current runs agree on a breakdown as the cut off low traverses the country bringing alot of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.

 

afterwards?... well much has been said about a re-load, and thats what i personally want. but the gfs has other ideas, suggesting (yet again) that the atlantic will kick in, thus removing the current pattern. and the azores high becomes our foe (for heat lovers)

Rtavn2401.png

 

the mjo appears to suggest an eventual orbit into phase 1

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

which for july would suggest

JulyPhase1500mb.gif

 

so make the most of the heat, it looks like a gradual deterioration over the next week before we lose it, and theres no tangible sign of a quick return, of course this applies to fi, so theres time for change, but thats what the models are showing atm.

Good post Mushy...clearly changes are afoot and it's perhaps not surprising that the models are all struggling to nail the detail, but I'd expect things to become a good deal clearer across the next 48hrs.

 

UKMO was first to pick the change this time yesterday and it remains fairly consistent this morning, so for my money it is probably closest to the mark at 144hrs on todays outputs, but I'm pretty sure it will not be exactly right at this range.

 

As for the post breakdown period, GFS looks ugly if fine, warm and sunny weather is your bag, with the Atlantic door fully open and a fairly unsettled picture developing. ECM at 240hr has a rather more sluggish look to things, but it does appear as though systems would begin to slide in from the west if it went out to T+264 or T+288hrs; so to suggest an imminent return to fine, settled weather into early August is little more than wishful thinking imo....at least for now.

 

The other interesting thing this morning is just how much the models have downgraded the weekend maxima. Yesterday I said I was surprised to see the local BBC forecast only going for 24c here on Sat, that seemed several degrees to low, but now GFS has fallen firmly in line.  Now before anyone goes jumping up and down about GFS undercooking maxima, the fact is these numbers are significantly lower than those progged for Saturday only 24hrs ago and if right it would feel pretty cool from Kent to Kirkwall, especially on the coast.  Ultimately it will be interesting to see how Sat's actual max's compare with this prediction from GFS..

 

Edited July 18, 2013 by shedhead

[Average Joe]

I think that if you're taking your kids on hols w/c 29th and you don't frequent here, you may be in for a shock. One thing having dry cooler 25c, but 20c and frequent showers.....(this is deep in GFS FI though)

Not what I want to hear given that we go away to Cornwall for that week. 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO was first to pick the change this time yesterday and it remains fairly consistent this morning, so for my money it is probably closest to the mark at 144hrs on todays outputs, but I'm pretty sure it will not be exactly right at this range.

I wouldn't call the UKMO output consistent considering it had this yesterday on the 12z

 

It's very much on it's own with regards to the cut off low so I consider it the least likely solution at the moment. 

But yeah the ECM by day11/12 would have a westerly regime as the low over the UK would phase with the incoming Atlantic weather systems

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[joggs]

Not model related but interesting none the less,Paul Hudson on Look North last night said another week of hot then going out with a bang before jet stream moves back south!

Might be worth a shout over next few days runs!?!?

[Nick F]

On the latest 00z GFS I struggle to see where the cutoff low actually ends up, seems to dissapear once it reaches Spain, it's the  area at the top of the azores high that concerns me more..

 

The models perhaps struggling a bit with handling the developments next week.

 

ECMWF and GFS both develop a cut-off low NW of Iberia, but differences appear over how much influence this will have early next week. ECMWF most hesitant on a breakdown now, with the upper ridge hanging on keeping it dry and fine early next week, whilst GFS has the ridge a little further east allowing in thundery showers/storms across the south early next week. UKMO most progressive and has a more 'intact' trough moving in from the west bringing a thundery breakdown early on.

[cobby]

Not what I want to hear given that we go away to Cornwall for that week. 

I dont look at the models over 5 days away except for this time of the year. Off to Cornwall tonight for two weeks and it looks like breaking. Last year was just coming home this w/e after 2 weeks rain only for sunshine to break out!

I have decided the models have not worked it out excatly, im not looking at them again for a couple of days but I will say that it will rain on Wednesday for Culdrose Air Day

[shedhead]

I wouldn't call the UKMO output consistent considering it had this yesterday on the 12z

 

 

 

 

It's very much on it's own with regards to the cut off low so I consider it the least likely solution at the moment. 

But yeah the ECM by day11/12 would have a westerly regime as the low over the UK would phase with the incoming Atlantic weather systems

 

By saying this time yesterday I was comparing it to it's 00 output, not yesterdays 12 run.

 

 

Your post from this time yesterday.......

 

UKMO is a head scratcher this morning

Completely bins the idea of the cut off low to our south west.

 

I would consider the two 00 runs at 144hrs to be fairly consistent, in fact they are very consistent regarding the overall pattern truth be told.

Edited July 18, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is a scorcher next week, it's a big upgrade on yesterday's 00z, becoming very humid with a growing threat of T-Storms being triggered by the building heat, it looks very continental synoptically and i'm thinking that temperatures in the low to mid 90's F will occur, and definately mid to high 80's, very hot, sticky and trending thundery but with plenty of hot sunshine too, it's the ultimate summer weather in my opinion.

[Robbie Garrett]

Fantasy island is this Monday.   So much can change in that time, this low where it positions in the Bay of Biscay or directly over us is very crucial on how we move forward over the next 7-10 days. The CFS looks pants now for the next month, god knows what sweets they are feeding it but generally it's a reliable indicator.  Let's hope this time it's wrong!! As the Summer Monsoon season will begin...

 

 

 

Slight Trough going on over the north of the UK. August might be a headache me thinks, but let's wait and see how the next few days/week pans out.

[draztik]

Well, as it's been very dry and warm recently, your last point is fairly obvious, especially given the time of year... :)The wet August point is purely conjecture, as far as I can see and is probably not suited for this thread (as undoubtedly my riposte is unsuitable too...)Please feel free to remove my post, Mods, but I feel the point needed to be made here.

conjecture? My comment was based on the model output, primarily from gfs. It clearly shows the Atlantic being let in, it has been showing this trend for days now. So those suggesting im hopecasting, clearly aren't looking at the models. Further, the ecm and ukmo only reinforce this trend to a more unsettled theme, with the Atlantic becoming more active. At this point, the beginning of August does appear unsettled, with the Azores high being flattened. I note, other members have been posting data, clearly indicating August doesn't look too wonderful, at this point for heat lovers. its funny that those who have been suggesting th azores high would reinsert itself aren't accused of conjecture or hopecasting, when the models have been showing for days now the exact opposite. Its okay when it shows HP in FI, different when its the LP system involved! Edited July 18, 2013 by draztik

[Downpour]

Yep the GFS Low Res must be taken with a pinch of salt unless it's showing HOT HOT HOT AND HUMID , well that's a different matter altogether

It should be taken with a lorry load of salt - whatever it is showing!

[Evening thunder]

The UKMO is not really consistent with other outputs, or when the 12z showed this

 

and todays 00z is in disagreement with the rest of the models. Obviously there's quite a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of thundery troughs/lows. At the moment I will stick with most models suggesting a more gradual slackening of pressure with shallow thundery troughs/lows forming in the hot air leading to the potential for some sparks to fly.. just how I remember in the past. Perfect

 

Tbh I think some are getting a little too far ahead of themselves just focusing on the post-breakdown period, Nothing wrong with that if they want to but it might not be correct of course. I'm not going to get too hung up on it yet considering changes that have occurred at shorter time frames (indeed if the UKMO is correct next week, this would be another to add to the list). We may enter an unsettled spell (not gunna complain at that, this is the UK, we've just had a fantastic month and my garden and the countryside is rather thirsty).

 

from what I can see some MJO forecasts are in disagreement later as usual, ECM thinks we'll get back towards phase 3 at the end of July. Also I know the MJO can be useful to use alongside the models and as guidance into the future, but even so surely the MJO forecasts are only as good as the models that make them?

[storm1080]

Is there an outside chance at GFS 00z T51 of the low NOT being cut off...or is it highly probable it will track from Canada (where it is just leaving now) to france, spain

 

Still set for a bumpy flight 500 miles south Thurs 25th by the looks of things

Edited July 18, 2013 by storm1080

[Summer Sun]

Major increases in rainfall for northern areas but more so Norther Scotland on this mornings precipitation charts from the 26th to August 3rd

 

 

The ECM Birmingham ensemble keeps the temperature average at or above average till the 30th but we do see a steady decline from the 24th

 

 

Rainfall remains fairly low right out to the 31st

 

 

Now looking at the monthly forecast the temperature mean stays just above normal right out to at least August 16th

 

 

Rainfall for the same period goes from below average to average over time