scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Northernlights]

yyaaayyyy found them cheers LORENZO 

 Yes grumpy old farmer had done the same when last laptop burnt out. Now saving every photo to a stick lesson learned. Thanks for that Lorenzo.

[A Winter's Tale]

A nice calm, clear, cool final night of October 2013. It was an uneventful October with not a lot to remember it for (other than the storm making *or made by* the news in southern Britain). Not a complete right-off with regards to fresh, cool autumn weather ( 2 air frosts at Glasgow airport) but there was very much less of the chilly conditions that dominated October last year. A mild start (and mild overall) but recently it has been standard late October conditions. And despite the lacking of some cooler October weather, to me the conditions have been more or less close to what we'd all expect for the time of year. Now a shower has arrived to start November off. I've always liked November despite it being famed for lots of rain and wind and lacking extremes in temperatures. But I enjoy the light at this time of year, the colour of the sky and clouds during calmer/clearer periods on Bonfire night and of course the more noticeable chill in the air with the knowledge that winter is coming.

 

Last November was pretty chilly. This year, for the first half of the month, the atlantic is king in a very unsettled, low-pressure dominated, changeable and zonal outlook. This combined with probably some 'cooler' weather than what we've seen so far this autumn then that should make for a seasonal start to November. As we go through this month the risk of winter weather potential increases - and for us in Scotland, zonal weather can deliver the goods if we're lucky with the potency of polar westerlies. As ever, I suspect we have to be patient to get our first taste of and best bits of winter. We should have our fair share of run-of-the mill cold and snowy spells throughout the winter, however, concerning significant and prolonged winter weather then any likelihood for this is later in the winter if the many key-factors fall in place. But with past-experience and as we all know great things can arise from periods of normal, atlantic-dominated weather (2009 and 2010 rings a bell).

 

The Scottish 1981-2010 mean temperature for November is 4.3C. I'll say we'll end up with 4.9C this year. As we're now entering the busy period for the forum, how about having a Scottish monthly mean temperature game for kilted members. Post your entry (deadline Bonfire night) and then see how close it gets to the final value.

[LomondSnowstorm]

A nice calm, clear, cool final night of October 2013. It was an uneventful October with not a lot to remember it for (other than the storm making *or made by* the news in southern Britain). Not a complete right-off with regards to fresh, cool autumn weather ( 2 air frosts at Glasgow airport) but there was very much less of the chilly conditions that dominated October last year. A mild start (and mild overall) but recently it has been standard late October conditions. And despite the lacking of some cooler October weather, to me the conditions have been more or less close to what we'd all expect for the time of year. Now a shower has arrived to start November off. I've always liked November despite it being famed for lots of rain and wind and lacking extremes in temperatures. But I enjoy the light at this time of year, the colour of the sky and clouds during calmer/clearer periods on Bonfire night and of course the more noticeable chill in the air with the knowledge that winter is coming.

 

Last November was pretty chilly. This year, for the first half of the month, the atlantic is king in a very unsettled, low-pressure dominated, changeable and zonal outlook. This combined with probably some 'cooler' weather than what we've seen so far this autumn then that should make for a seasonal start to November. As we go through this month the risk of winter weather potential increases - and for us in Scotland, zonal weather can deliver the goods if we're lucky with the potency of polar westerlies. As ever, I suspect we have to be patient to get our first taste of and best bits of winter. We should have our fair share of run-of-the mill cold and snowy spells throughout the winter, however, concerning significant and prolonged winter weather then any likelihood for this is later in the winter if the many key-factors fall in place. But with past-experience and as we all know great things can arise from periods of normal, atlantic-dominated weather (2009 and 2010 rings a bell).

 

The Scottish 1981-2010 mean temperature for November is 4.3C. I'll say we'll end up with 4.9C this year. As we're now entering the busy period for the forum, how about having a Scottish monthly mean temperature game for kilted members. Post your entry (deadline Bonfire night) and then see how close it gets to the final value.

 

I'm game for that - a mix of zonal, very mild and a cold northerly spell perhaps around the 20th, generally above average but not feeling above average for most of the month, 5.2C but with the potential for significant downward revisions IF the current seeds of warming in the stratosphere turn into something more substantial before the month's end.

[Harve]

I'll guess 5.5c! Way above average for the CET but not quite far above average for further north, perhaps?

Edited November 1, 2013 by Harve

[lorenzo]

Good shout Winters Tale, having done no research and with no idea where the mean temp records for Scotland are located,  will go for 4.9 !

[Ross B]

Couldn't hear the thunder in the office yesterday but I certainly got soaked by the rain on the way home!

 

BBC going for quite a lot of hill snow above 500m on the latest forecasts for tomorrow, also had a sleety bit on the graphics over the Central Belt tomorrow evening but I'm guessing that'll be reserved for the likes of the Pentlands at best...  

[LomondSnowstorm]

Couldn't hear the thunder in the office yesterday but I certainly got soaked by the rain on the way home!

 

BBC going for quite a lot of hill snow above 500m on the latest forecasts for tomorrow, also had a sleety bit on the graphics over the Central Belt tomorrow evening but I'm guessing that'll be reserved for the likes of the Pentlands at best...  

 

Yep, fairly small chance of snow below about 400m, although worth bearing in mind that sea level pressure associated with those temperatures is around 975-980hpa so it isn't as far from being snow as it might seem from the 950hpa temperature:

 

Interestingly Scotland is going to be one of the few parts of Europe experiencing below average temperatures in the next 7-10 days

 

If we are going to get a below average winter it'll probably be at least partly a result of us sneaking some below/around average anomalies early-mid winter 'through the back door' i.e. from Polar/Arctic northwesterlies with December 2011/January 1984 style 'uber-zonality'. The upper vortex is looking increasingly strong in the foreseeable but it is worth remembering that the biggest rises are often preceeded by the coldest stratospheric temperatures. My forecast is almost done so I'm hoping to post it this weekend at some point provided I get my actual graded work done as well.

[Buriedundersnow]

i'll go for an average around 5.5c for this month

[Buriedundersnow]

could get a few frosts around tonight with temps to drop

 

BBC Scotland Weather â€@BBCScotWeather 4m

Hi Chris here. Showers fade this eve, winds fall light. A clear, cold night with widespread frost. Lows around 0 to 3C. Some rural spots -4C

[over_the_rainbow]

brrrrr it has been fair  here all day! Currently 3C and I expect a frost come the morning. 

 

As for November AWT - for no particular reason I will plump with 5C exactly. 

[Northernlights]

Another cold day today with sharp showers of rain and hail.Strong wind and a maximum of 7c . Just been outside and again lots  of lightning slightly north of west although overhead sky is starry. Really  active weather, winter is here as far as the farm is concerned

[Hairy Celt]

Back from the wild north this evening, quite glad to be back to the mildness of home after a few days of sometimes unrelenting heavy showers.  The north is a good place for huge and crazy cloudscapes though - you can see the cloud mass with your name on tearing towards you from a long way off... 

 

I didn't see any snowy bits on northern hills on my way home but the forecast (if it's right this time, ahem I'M WATCHING YOU, MET OFFICE, GET IT RIGHT THIS TIME) suggests at least a couple of days of high altitude snow. Where's my winter kit?  Talking of which, I was up to four layers at times this week, trying to keep warm in the wind & rain.  As NL says, winter's here.

 

What's the game, everyone guessing 5C? Is there a prize?

[A Winter's Tale]

A cold, starry night after a changeable, fresh first day of November with a mix of bright and clear spells and showers. Hopefully there'll be another frost to the add the tally for this autumn - probably the first widespread risk of  frost this season and maybe in some rural areas, we could see the coldest temperature since the Spring. Tomorrow could also be the first winter-feeling day of the season with a front bringing plenty of rain and suppressing daytime maximum temperatures. The maximum here and across many other areas should fail to reach 10C for the first time since Spring whilst in places such as Braemar we could see some wintry values such as 3C during the height of the day aswell as some notable snowfall on the high ground. So for now, all is good with some good-old chilly November weather. Hopefully we'll accumulate a decent tally of cool late autumn conditions come the end of the month.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Back from the wild north this evening, quite glad to be back to the mildness of home after a few days of sometimes unrelenting heavy showers.  The north is a good place for huge and crazy cloudscapes though - you can see the cloud mass with your name on tearing towards you from a long way off... 

 

I didn't see any snowy bits on northern hills on my way home but the forecast (if it's right this time, ahem I'M WATCHING YOU, MET OFFICE, GET IT RIGHT THIS TIME) suggests at least a couple of days of high altitude snow. Where's my winter kit?  Talking of which, I was up to four layers at times this week, trying to keep warm in the wind & rain.  As NL says, winter's here.

 

What's the game, everyone guessing 5C? Is there a prize?

 

It's a competition to see who can guess the closest to 5C, with the prize being an unlimited pass to troll the MT during peak ramping/TOORPing season without deletion or suspension 

[Buriedundersnow]

from twitter

 

BBC Weather â€@bbcweather 15m

The first significant snow of the season will fall on the Scottish mountains today. With 20cm forecast it is not a day for hill walking. HW

[Hairy Celt]

It's a competition to see who can guess the closest to 5C, with the prize being an unlimited pass to troll the MT during peak ramping/TOORPing season without deletion or suspension

 

I guess 5C and claim the prize now. Nowt like a spot of Friday night trolling. OOPS. OTR got in furst. Ok, 5.001C.  541t who drank all that beer?

[Polar Maritime]

Looks like some of you guys could see some snow later over high ground 

 

[lorenzo]

And, the media are off on one again. ARCTIC BLAST BLAH BLAH BLAH. It's feckin November ya muppets. Rant Over.

 

Great convective summary from Nick F describes the synoptic situation very well http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=27ef6d6a4ab98d6ca2b7fcfed77fdbe5

 

Looking at the NMM and Meto fax here are a few of the charts that show the low tracking through and the colder air influence as it does.

 

Meto drop this to 974mb as it moves out into the North Sea and some windy conditions in the mix

 

Messy SLP picture which shows the colder air wrapping in as it passes and decreasing 850Hpa temps.

 

530dam line makes an appearance and elongates perfectly NW- SE, the pocket of 528 does appear well to the North West.

 

Here's oor first snaw, and a window tomorrow evening for some fireworks ! 0degree isotherm at around 650-700m

 

Nice and Baltic for the start of November and some nice webcam pics to look forward to for Sunday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[over_the_rainbow]

I guess 5C and claim the prize now. Nowt like a spot of Friday night trolling. OOPS. OTR got in furst. Ok, 5.001C.  541t who drank all that beer?

 

I'm happy to forfeit the prize to you - I'm too scared to post in the model thread. I just read (often chuckle) and then run! 

[Hairy Celt]

Last night best forgot I think

 

A cold and grey start to the day here, no wind to speak of - a Bf0.  Dry tho, makes a nice change after this week.

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

 

Chilly night in NE Fife with a low of -1c at Leuchars. No frost here in Crail though.

 

Now grey and drizzly, +3c at Leuchars and +7c in Crail.

[Mark Neal.]

Looking very wintry over the hills of Scotland later for you lucky folks. As Lorenzo rightly explains what's going on in good detail. Attached are forecasts for Cairngorm and Ben Nevis

Webcams at the ready!

[November13]

Plenty of snow on the mountain web cams today.I will not be surprised if high level roads get some slush today.Agh winter has finally started...expect this website to get busy.Now planning my first ski of the season.Might be end of November.

[NUT]

AAH What a lovely november day it is Pouring with rain. Was frosty earlier though (first of the season I think)

[Ross B]

A low of 1c overnight, currently steady rain and 4c. I could have sworn it started off a bit sleety from looking at the car windscreens but complete rain now!