scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Northernlights]

Mild and very humid here a bit overcast and currently 15.3c. Ground a bit wetter now after more overnight rain and a foggy start to the day. Taking and old fence down to put in new posts, old ones coming out by hand although they   are 2 feet in the ground a bonus after the very dry summer has shrunk the ground round the posts leaving all the posts on the farm very loose.

[Coast]

 

Half of Scots fear ‘extreme weather’ emergency

 

Almost half of Scots are more fearful of being by hit by an “extreme weather†emergency this winter than a terrorist attack, new research has found. The prospect of power and water cuts are at the top of growing public concerns, as well as being left stranded in their cars or trains in snow blizzards, it has emerged.

 

It came as the The Scottish Government today launched its winter readiness campaign. Emergencies caused by extreme weather is now a concern for 49 per cent of Scots, up from 38 per cent last year, according to a poll by TNS BMRB for the Scottish Government and Red Cross. Power cuts, water supply cuts and disruption to fuel supplies also remain areas of widespread concern at 46 per cent, up 4 per cent on last year. Terrorism is a concern for 31 per cent. The fear of a major transport incident is a concern for 27 per cent of Scots, up from 20 per cent last year.

 

But there is a five per cent increase in public preparedness for extreme weather on last year - 44 per cent in 2013 versus 39 per cent in 2012. Transport and Veterans, Keith Brown, said: “As we have seen in Scotland, severe weather can strike quickly and at any time of year. In March, we saw the impact of severe snowstorms on communities in Arran, Kintyre and Dumfries and Galloway.

“The weather can cause a range of problems but we can be ready for them. So whether it is making your home energy efficient, protecting your pipes, packing an emergency kit for the car or looking out for vulnerable neighbours, we can all play our part in helping Scotland get ready for winter.â€

 

In the last four years, parts of Scotland have been badly affected by severe weather – from high winds and blizzards that affected the country last February, to the snow and freezing temperatures of previous winters. It cost a previous transport minister, Stewart Stevenson, his job over his botched handling of the travel chaos in 2010, which saw thousands of vehicles abandoned on central Scotland’s motorway network and hundreds of people stuck in their cars overnight. David Miller, operations director for the British Red Cross advised the public to prepare an emergency kit for their home and car, jot down emergency phone numbers and check on any neighbours, family or friends who may need any help.

 

“Each year the Red Cross helps people across Scotland cope with the effects of severe weather and this winter we’ll be prepared and ready,†he said. Inspector David Carballo, Trunk Road Policing Group, Police Scotland, said: “Winter safety is not just about severe cold weather. We all know that the Scottish weather can be very unpredictable and drivers can sometimes experience a  variety of different driving conditions during a single journey.

 

 

http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/half-of-scots-fear-extreme-weather-emergency-1-3149492

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Half of Scots fear ‘extreme weather’ emergency

 

 

We must be in the weird minority that rejoice at the prospect.

 

Mon ya bawbag, we're no feart!

Edited October 21, 2013 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

Half ( Perhaps all...) of Scottish Regional Thread want extreme weather emergency !!! There are some B - Bag type charts on tonights GFS Run, 

 

ECM being rather more sensible about things at present..

 

Will be an interesting countdown to Halloween..

 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/half-of-scots-fear-extreme-weather-emergency-1-3149492

We're quite gallus and fancy our chances against anyone attempting a terror attack. Mother nature we're not so sure of tackling though.

 

Really though, Scotland isn't the type of place you'd get an extreme weather emergency, but it's nice to know were prepared if it happens.

 

Cue the mildest, most benign winter on record.

 

EDIT: I live in Glasgow, I probably should say that Glasgow isn't the type of place you'd get an extreme weather emergency. Can't speak for the rest of Scotland though.

Edited October 21, 2013 by Glaswegianblizzard

[Hairy Celt]

Seriously, 31% of Scots are 'worried' about terrorism?  I worry about terrorists less than the slugs on my cabbage patch.  Perhaps it was a multi-choice question and the other options were 'that spider in the corner above the fridge' (sorry BUS) and 'what shoes to wear to the shops in the morning'.

 

As for extreme weather...  COME ON YOU SNOW WE CAN TAKE IT MORE C'MON BABY HARDER

 

 

Well yes HC calm down...

[lorenzo]

After some tropical overnight temps, it has finally stopped raining and the yellow orb thing is attempting to put in an appearance.

 

Balmy October weather and steady downpours late into the evening last night.

 

Eventually clearing..

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912201800&VAR=prec&HH=30&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=1&INFO=0

Edited October 22, 2013 by lorenzo

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Seriously, 31% of Scots are 'worried' about terrorism? 

 

4% fear being attacked by space monsters which apparently is more of a worry than being attacked by Russia...

 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-war-of-the-worlds/

 

But that's another story.

 

Still holding back on winter tyre fitting. Not had a frost yet (that I've noticed anyway) and the summers are just about spent on the front but with sufficient left to keep them on a tad longer. Planning to replace all four in the spring with some asymmetrics I fancy from the co that does my winters.

 

Need to get myself some ethanol from work that's absorbed water (so no longer on spec) to make up some batches of DIY screenwash again. Have a post it note somewhere to remind me.

[Northernlights]

Another very humid day with a maximum of 15c, currently 13c with odd spots of rain. Took in all cows and calves  this morning to vaccinate cows for the latest disease to hit cattle(Schamllenburg) which leads to deformed foetuses in early pregnancy only to be told by the vets that the vaccine had not arrived.Grumpy old farmer syndrome again.

The autumn colours on the trees are really good this year  in sharp contrast to the green leaves of the turnips.

[Hairy Celt]

Winter tyres went on a while back here, wish I hadn't bothered save for one early morning run well inland at about 2C - otherwise not seen much below about 8C since.  Gone for Nokians this time and hope they last more than the Vredesteins, although I don't hold out much hope. Muddy right boot syndrome...

 

Agreed, NL, autumn colours are good, just lacking a good day to get out and about.  Friday morning perhaps?

 

Interestingly (perhaps), last week while I was making weather records up north, I noted a 'Beaufort 0' for the day for the first time this year.  Bf 1 and 2 not uncommon but 0 is: something to do with the Atlantic.

 

This minimum pricing for alcohol is total crap.  There should be exemptions for gardeners with beer traps.

[mistyqueen]

Morning Peeplings. Horrible day up here, dreich, dreich, dreich!

[Glaswegianblizzard]

If one of the big storms rattled Glasgow I think there would be an emergency, it hasn't happened recently but your time will come. I'm pretty sure winds gusting to 100mph+ would cause an emergency anywhere?

 Fair point. Wasn't there a big one in the late 1960's? Although a lot of damage was caused by poor housing stock as much as the high winds I believe.

 

That's the one kind of major weather event I wasn't thinking of, but it's the most likely, and not inconceivable that we could take a direct hit with something like that.

 

Speaking of which, the model thread are all chattering about this storm due on Sunday, as it will hit southern England. Looks like a drop in temps and maybe some windy conditions for us too.  

[snowy owl]

Dunno about Sunday but its blowing a hoolie here the noo.

 

Just in time for my visit to the hairdresser lol 

 

Feeling chilly now in the strong winds.

 

Fair blowing the leaves off the big tree though so good news is, no more leaves for me to clear up and compost.

Edited October 23, 2013 by snowy owl

[BleakMidwinter]

If one of the big storms rattled Glasgow I think there would be an emergency, it hasn't happened recently but your time will come. I'm pretty sure winds gusting to 100mph+ would cause an emergency anywhere?

Jan 2nd when our house had a heavy cast-iron skylight ripped bodily out of the roof at the time when the weather station recorded a gust of 102mph, our house being about one mile away and forty foot lower. But I don't think it was an emergency in general across Edinburgh. A fair few trees came down, and a helluva lot of chimneys, but not much beyond that. I think probably because most of Scotland gets hit most years by 70mph or so, and so most of it is reasonably well-built and resilient to the occasional much stronger gust. I think where you get emergency situations with high winds is where there are rarely strong winds. Like the 1987 'hurricane' hitting regions not used to it, where the majority of trees had shallower root systems.Up here, I reckon anything not up to it falls down pretty soon. So anything that's stood a dozen years, let alone a century like much of our cities' housing stock, is going to stay up in occasional very high winds. Touch wood...

[chemikal]

It doesn't really feel like Autumn yet here. Plenty of leaves on the trees though maybe Monday will put paid to that! I was cycling in shorts to work last week. We haven't had the heating on for at the last 3 weeks and the temperature is generally 23C at the lowest. This is due too a burst pipe and our house sooking up 45 minutes of mains pressure water from the upstairs (warm, why not the cold!) burst bath pipe. It was only put in 18 months ago as well...

 

The industrial dehumidifiers and blowers are certainly doing the job. Beaker our cat is not too happy with noise or the heat. The first photo is of him trying to keep cool. The second is of him half in and half out of his cat flap. He was actually sleeping there for over half an hour. It was so hot in the house and wet outside so he decide half in ad half out was the best option.

 

It was about this time last year (26th October) that I saw the 1st snow flakes of he year. Don't think that will be happening this year! Who knows what this winter will bring. Whatever it does then enjoy!

 

Andrew

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

 Fair point. Wasn't there a big one in the late 1960's? Although a lot of damage was caused by poor housing stock as much as the high winds I believe.

 

That's the one kind of major weather event I wasn't thinking of, but it's the most likely, and not inconceivable that we could take a direct hit with something like that.

 

Speaking of which, the model thread are all chattering about this storm due on Sunday, as it will hit southern England. Looks like a drop in temps and maybe some windy conditions for us too.  

 

January 1968, one of my grandad's favourite weather stories of when he tried for 3 hours to get from Bankfoot to his work in Kirkcaldy before turning back because every single road was either closed or impassible due to fallen trees. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Scotland_storm 70,000 houses damaged, 300 destroyed and 9 dead in Glasgow alone, with gusts widely over 100mph (although we did reach 102mph that on the January 2nd 2012 storm that BMW remembers on the Tay Bridge, I believe).

The charts are deceptively benign relative to the actual conditions, probably because, as with most of the highest impact storms, the deepening occured very rapidly from midnight to 6am and also because the wind vector aligned with the central belt corridor, although whether or not there was an actual sting jet associated with it as there likely was with 'Bawbag' and January 2nd 2012 is very hard to determine.

[GulberwickWeather]

A tad breezy today, gusting to 35kts (40mph) at the moment but mild at 8.2C and rising.

[mistyqueen]

Defo cooler this morning and , oh look.......it's started raining again! I remember that storm in 1968. Lots of trees down, chimneys off roofs, cars blown off roads. Quite a nippy wee sweetie that one.

[Ravelin]

Definitely a bit of a cooler feeling start to the day here too, but cloudless blue skies, sunshine and virtually no wind. No frost that I noticed though, which is kind of surprising for this time of year with no cloud cover (I'm assuming there was no cloud cover overnight as the stars were out in full glory when I went for a run at 8:30pm last night). Pity we're due to be back to cloud and rain again tomorrow.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Update on the winter forecast - I've started on the process of creating my composite chart for the closest analogues to the winter ahead and I've so far whittled it down to 10 years, and hopefully down to 5-6 once I look at other variables. The signal thus far is pretty weak it must be said but has the look of a late winter to me and there are some decently below average winters in the mix too. At the moment I' plump for maybe 55-45 on colder than average over milder but as with 2011/12 (which never quite pulled it off) or one of my other preliminary analogue years of 2008-09 it may require some pretty drastic stratospheric forcing to unseat what looks like potentially a more significant Greenland centred PV early winter than we've seen in a while. For Scotland of course a strong PV could work in our favour and open the door to Polar or even Arctic northwesterlies, especially with the more southerly tracking jet of recent years, but it can also lead to more typical mild Atlantic driven weather. Anyway, I'll keep you posted and I'm hoping to have a full forecast done by the month's end.

[Northernlights]

A fresher day today mostly sunny but with a maximum of 10c. A dusting of snow on the summit of Ben Wyvis across the Firth.

 

 

A photo of some more stunning trees near Darnaway.

 

 

 

 Another photo showing the calves helping their mums to eat turnips.

[lorenzo]

Spied this on facebook this evening, some of these are quite funny.

 

http://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/the-most-wonderfully-scottish-things-that-have-ever-happe

 

Meanwhile, on the storm front, model discussion thread is full of information and a dedicated thread also running on predicted events for Monday. Met Office latest Fax pivots the track of the low North versus the straight on 3500 km 48hr journey straight over to Denmark.

 

Good post from Ian F in the model thread also shows the strong continuity of the predicted path of the system on their general model, indicating the fax charts are the best to follow at present. Lots of hype as October goes out with a proper depression coming through. 

 

Will it deliver, or....

 

 

[Ravelin]

Well it's now 10:30 am and it's still semi-dark outside, which of course means we are covered in a swathe of low, grey cloud and rain. Bit of a breeze too just to complete was feels like typical October weather.

 

Fascinating watching the threads discussing the potential Sunday/Monday storm down south, especially from the comfortably safe position in NE Scotland. Will be interesting to see how things develop, especially as it'll be another 24hrs or so before the modeled storm even begins to form in the real world.

[Hairy Celt]

Dull and windy and mild, pretty typical for late October I guess. The radar shows us getting quite a bit but it lies of course, all we have is the odd spit & spot, although it was wet first thing.

Lorenzo, the picture of the garden furniture with one chair tipped over made me smile. It's like a scene from a David Lynch film - the camera will pan round very slowly showing a bush shivering in the breeze, with some distant snippets of random conversation... then the credits roll.

edit... spoke too soon, eh, weeing down all afternoon while I sort firewood!

Edited October 25, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[blitzen]

Folk might be interested to read how the Gulf Stream is currently doing? Have included the link  (which is now fixed!):

 

http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/23/meteorologist-gulf-stream-weakens-to-lowest-level-in-five-years-may-bode-ill-for-europes-winter/

Edited October 25, 2013 by Blitzen