Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[shedhead]

06 London ensembles show the Op to be one of the coldest members on the 21st, but there is certainly clear support for a 'colder spell' around that time, with the period thereafter seeing the mean pretty close to the 30 year average.

 

 

 

[joggs]

Interesting times ahead folks re models and see how they handle the next few weeks,just to add,Big Joe bastardi saying parties over for europe which COULD lead to a december to remember lol.Keep up the good work peeps.

[Frosty.]

just to add,Big Joe laminate floori saying parties over for europe which COULD lead to a december to remember lol.Keep up the good work peeps.

Has there been a party in europe?.I wasn't invited  

Edited November 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[AWD]

Nice looking 06z Mean chart from twitter;

Looks like we can say goodbye to SWesterly winds for a while at least anyway.

[Due South]

Big Joe prefers the ECM for forecasting the states, he hates the GFS

[Ian Brown]

Interesting times ahead folks re models and see how they handle the next few weeks,just to add,Big Joe laminate floori saying parties over for europe which COULD lead to a december to remember lol.Keep up the good work peeps.

That's knackered it then.

[gottolovethisweather]

Nice looking 06z Mean chart from twitter;

image.jpg

Looks like we can say goodbye to SWesterly winds for a while at least anyway.

 

Very pleasant looking charts, let the party begin. Not quite the charts that our Gav was suggesting a few days before then.  A choice of this. 

 

 

Or this to which you describe.

 

 

Nonetheless the weather could still make us all look fools in the coming weeks and probably will, so nothing new there.

Edited November 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[shedhead]

Nice looking 06z Mean chart from twitter;

image.jpg

Looks like we can say goodbye to SWesterly winds for a while at least anyway.

I'd suggest that chart is reflective of HP domination and as a result some cold nights though AWD, rather than the predominance of an Arctic or sub Arctic airflow.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'd suggest that chart is reflective of HP domination and as a result some cold nights though AWD, rather than the predominance of an Arctic or sub Arctic airflow.

 

Nought wrong with that either, all very positive for the coldies.

[Yarmy]

Nice looking 06z Mean chart from twitter;

image.jpg

Looks like we can say goodbye to SWesterly winds for a while at least anyway.

 

Above average near Limavady though. Keep this map hidden from Smithyweather at all costs.

 

Matt's ECM32 update in the Strat thread is a little more encouraging now, suggesting a positive pressure anomaly to our NW. Still very early days.

[shedhead]

Nought wrong with that either, all very positive for the coldies.

Not suggesting there is anything wrong with it, cold is cold from whichever source it comes, just trying to make the distinction clear.

[AWD]

Nought wrong with that either, all very positive for the coldies.

Indeed. Don't care how the chart has come to that conclusion, it's the signal away from anything mild/above average that I take from it.

Cold, crisp frosty nights in late November would be very welcome from the recent double digit minima's & overcast drizzly days I've had.

As I said in my original post, goodbye SWesterly winds and hello something more seasonal.

Although I do think a west based -NAO pattern is still a realistic option in the long run but I'll leave that for now as I done a post about that yesterday and nothing much as changed reliably for the time being.

Edited November 12, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Not suggesting there is anything wrong with it, cold is cold from whichever source it comes, just trying to make the distinction clear.

 

Good.  Or should I say cool.

 

Anyway enough of my one liners.

[Frosty.]

This GEFS 06z perturbation chart made me feel like dancin. 

[shedhead]

Well you are gonna be pretty knackered after 16 days of dancing Frosty....

[stewfox]

A friendly reminder that this thread is to actually discuss the model outputs, posts about how people favour one model over another and on output verification performance are best suited to other threads within the NetWeather forums....thanks

 

Surely output verification is important when discussing models ?

 

I always thought in terms of actual statistical performance rather then personal preference / believe, the main models referred to on here are not miles apart re their actual 'performance'?

 

Although some may handle different scenarios differently as SM and others have referred to ? Surely that's part of model discussion ?

 

If you dislike a model then that should be backed up to a link with statistical evidence.

[bluearmy]

The latest meto 30 dayer is about as big a wintry shift as one could expect. the ecm ens appear to be well spread beyond the initial cool few days. naefs anomolys longer term becoming very weak.  week 2 looks v difficult to call.

[legritter]

Is this a dancing forum ,todays SUN is affecting our moods .Right Modells ,this mornings runs not quite so exciting as last nights but still showing an eventual area of low pressure possibly moving S/EAST over us next week .there after at this range high pressure most probably but no guarantees situated to our west or n/west or settling down over us ,i would say beyond that at this range will as usuall be frustrating ,as other posters have said Its still autumn so lets not set the Bar to high .also remember the cold can arrive very quickly if we get the right synoptics .as far as any particular modell VS another i always look over the course of a couple of days ,try and read between the lines ,look at Met office daily updates and always expect disappointments along the way .So in summary a change of fortunes is fairly on the cards but no guarantees just yet .anyhow im going for a tango down the village and a quick fox trot at the local . 

[Frosty.]

 

Matt's ECM32 update in the Strat thread is a little more encouraging now, suggesting a positive pressure anomaly to our NW. Still very early days.

That is very encouraging Yarmy.

[Panayiotis]

Very pleasant looking charts, let the party begin. Not quite the charts that our Gav was suggesting a few days before then.  A choice of this. 

 

gfsanom_eu.png

 

Or this to which you describe.

 

GFS ens anomalies.jpg

 

Nonetheless the weather could still make us all look fools in the coming weeks and probably will, so nothing new there.

You havent taken the account that they are for different periods; the first chart is between the 4th and 12th with the second chart between the 20th and 28th. 

Edited November 12, 2013 by Panayiotis

[gottolovethisweather]

You havent taken the account that they are for different periods; the first chart is between the 4th and 12th with the second chart between the 20th and 28th. 

 

Indeed, you make a fair point but SS (whilst not belittling his view) did post said charts five times or so in the space of a few days. However, just a couple of days later, where are we now and which would you say is more likely to verify in the long term?

 

For those new to this model output discussion, it also doesn't matter how times somebody posts an extreme chart (-20c uppers etc.) or an FI chart (at >t+184 hours or whatever) or even on occasion a near-term chart, the end result will more than likely differ come the timescale it alludes to. For example, it is a fair bet Europe will continue to warm up on differing runs and cool down on others, if one wants to pick up on select runs. I'm just attempting to illustrate how one's perspective of what looks a gimmee one day is clearly not the next.

Edited November 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

Nought wrong with that either, all very positive for the coldies.

Agreed, a few weeks ago there was zip.. nothing whatsoever for coldies to cheer on the models, how things have changed recently, there are some stonking 6z perturbations like I showed above which are similar to Nov 2010. I'm not suggesting we will have a freeze like that but it might be better than some are expecting.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[shedhead]

The latest meto 30 dayer is about as big a wintry shift as one could expect. the ecm ens appear to be well spread beyond the initial cool few days. naefs anomolys longer term becoming very weak.  week 2 looks v difficult to call.

Typically sober is how I'd describe it, perhaps it should be typically sobering, with nothing to suggest anything wintry of note.

 

I post the 6-15 day part below, simply to highlight the fact it's doesn't frank the HP dominance portrayed by the 06 GFS in FI.... 

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 26 Nov 2013:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain across northern parts on Sunday will move erratically southeastwards and should eventually clear the far southeast by Monday morning. Through the week, there is a trend for most parts to become colder and more unsettled, with showers or more persistent spells of rain, which may be locally heavy and also turn wintry over the hills in the north. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales across northern areas. Overnight frosts are also likely to become more widespread than recently. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain rather unsettled and on the chilly side, with spells of rain or showers. These may turn wintry, mainly over northern hills. The best of any settled and drier weather most likely in the south.

Updated: 1145 on Tue 12 Nov 2013

Edited November 12, 2013 by shedhead

[gottolovethisweather]

Agreed, a few weeks ago there was zip.. nothing whatsoever for coldies to cheer on the models, how things have changed recently, there are some stonking 6z perturbations like I showed above which are similar to Nov 2010. I'm not suggesting we will have a freeze like that but it might be better than some are expecting.

 

Yes soon the search for double-digit Maximums by day will be a lost cause and the descent into a more seasonal (Christmassy type of pattern) should become the norm. In fact I did mention such things a few days ago in other areas of the forum. Looking forward to it, sorry mildies but at least we all could do with drying out I guess before a potential wintry onslaught for some.

[Panayiotis]

Indeed, you make a fair point but SS (whilst not belittling his view) did post said charts five times or so in the space of a few days. However, just a couple of days later, where are we now and which would you say is more likely to verify in the long term?

 

For those new to this model output discussion, it also doesn't matter how times somebody posts an extreme chart (-20c uppers etc.) or an FI chart (at >t+184 hours or whatever) or even on occasion a near-term chart, the end result will more than likely differ come the timescale it alludes to. For example, it is a fair bet Europe will continue to warm up on differing runs and cool down on others, if one wants to pick up on select runs. I'm just attempting to illustrate how one's perspective of what looks a gimmee one day is clearly not the next.

Well I would say that the first GFS chart prediction has been correct with its anomalies between today and the 4th (I dont have any data to prove the last 8 days but if anyone can find such a chart it would be appreciable). 

The second chart which is for the 20th to the 28th shows below average temperatures for the UK (shown as colder anomalies) and as we are expecting the colder air from the north/east between this period I think it may also be correct. But obviously we will have to see!

 

I dont know if that has answered your question though?