Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[MR EXTREMES]

as nick sussex says watch what comes out of the eastern seaboard there never is strong enough heights to sustain a block to north alantic into Greenland.

but scandi hieight retrogression is always another idear.

 

most twists to come im sure certainly turning more wintry but these cold setups take time and I don't think any detail is worth looking at until atleast within t144.

 

baby steps but plenty of cold to our north id like to see deeper lower heights into Europe or sw propping up higher heights most models go with a mid alantic block will it sink I expect so but theres hope which is a good start to winter.

[itsnowjoke]

Loving FI of the GFS , something is afoot for sure.

Meanwile the CFS is like a dog with a bone and has been showing an easterly

now for several days for the end of the month, before you scoff at the CFS remember

how it performed last March

Could i just ask about the models and how they perform. You say remeer how the CFS performed last March surely we should be looking at the most reliable models that perform well most of the time and not pick outmodels from last year whick we liked the best.

[Purga]

Iceland is the place to be if this comes off! Awesome conditions for them.

 

 

Apart from the hills & mountains further north it looks cooler but relatively 'average' November fare for most of us after next week.

[Frosty.]

Nice cold plunge on the Ecm 00z op run this morning, 522 dam line digging south so there would be a risk of snow in places and widespread sharp frosts, even when the cold uppers depart, we are still left with surface cold with no sign of mild mush returning for a while. Even if the cold is shortlived, we could be entering a cycle of cold reloads from the northwest / north / northeast. 

[UV-RAY]

Nice cold plunge on the Ecm 00z op run this morning, 522 dam line digging south so there would be a risk of snow in places and widespread sharp frosts, even when the cold uppers depart, we are still left with surface cold with no sign of mild mush returning for a while. Even if the cold is shortlived, we could be entering a cycle of cold reloads from the northwest / north / northeast. 

Exactly Frosty, after the cold uppers move away there will be a lot of surface cold to keep the below average feel for November, then there is the chance of further attacks from the NW/NE/N towards the latter end of the month.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GEM is a timely reminder to not count chickens yet. This rise of pressure to the NW seems against certain teleconnections I've read somewhere, so is a full blown rise a red herring? Not calling it either way just pointing it out that its no done deal and may end up being much watered down. It also could go full blown but will make for fascinating model watching.

 

GEM at t150......spoiler LP to our west

 

 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 12, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

ECM doesn't get those -5 850's to everyone this morning with some eastern places missing out

 

 

GEM isn't looking as cold this morning with milder air and high pressure slowly pushing in from the west

 

[Ian Brown]

Obviously a cooling trend but I'm not too excited by either of the options that the ECM and GFS put forward from day 8 onwards.

 

As for the GEM, it was awful last winter.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble doesn't get the -5 uppers beyond the far north of England this morning

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show a chilly NW blow blowing down over the UK behind a weak cold front currently clearing the SE. A bright day with long sunny spells and the odd shower will be likely today. Tonight and tomorrow sees a ridge crossing over from the West with a cold and frosty night likely in the South tonight. Winds ad milder air encroaches across the North tonight and tomorrow and a cold front brings a spell of rain SE across the UK Wednesday night with strong winds and rain for a time. A cold NNW flow follows later Thursday and Friday with another ridge settling things down again on Friday and Saturday, again with a frost likely overnight in the South. Through the weekend most models show slack conditions over the UK with a weak front edging South over Britain bringing dull and misty weather with light winds in temperatures close to or a little below average.

 

GFS then shows slack conditions continuing until midweek with a mix of cloudy spells and brighter interludes as weak fronts continue to push South. By midweek a more definitive pull of Northerly winds behind a trough lowers temperatures considerably and it will become cold for all especially across the South with rain or sleet at times while the North becomes cold, clear and frosty as High pressure builds. This situation remains for several days with frost and fog widespread over the North with cloudy skies across the South preventing much frost but maintaining a risk of a little rain at times in a raw wind from the East. Late in the run a deep Low to the NE pulls a spell of cold NW winds across the UK with wintry showers in the North and West

 

.UKMO today ends in run with a classic set up for a Northerly following it's term. High pressure is strong across the Atlantic and with Low pressure to the NW poised to slide SE across Britain and to the SE. Cloud and rain would be slow to clear the South from an old front while the North sees the approach of another along with freshening winds through next Monday. Temperatures at this stage would be close to average.

 

GEM does show a brief and chilly NW flow early next week which quickly gets squeezed out by Low pressure slipping South to the SW and allowing a mid latitude High to ridge across the UK from the Atlantic which means rather cold and settled weather more likely with frost and fog the likely problems night and morning for a time. Any rain would be most likely in the far NE before milder air topples over the High and over Northern areas before the end of next week.

 

NAVGEM is a little different in that it pulls Low pressure down to the West of the British Isles keeping cold air away over the Atlantic but with the Low's close proximity to the UK there would be rain at times in temperatures closer to but probably still a little below average.

 

ECM opens the floodgates to the North early next week with falling pressure developing into Low pressure positioned across the SE and France later with a cold and raw NE flow setting up across the South with rain at times along with the possibility of a little sleet or wet snow on the highest ground. By Day 10 as high pressure builds close to the NW these regions would become drier but with sharp night frosts developing.

 

The GFS Ensemble mean charts do suggest strong support for a colder northerly of sorts early next week with some wintry showers possible in the North. Then for a lengthy mid term period it looks like High pressure is supported to be over or close to SE Britain with cold, frosty and foggy weather more likely before the chance of more unsettled and rather cold weather returns late in the run.

 

The Jet Stream profile shows a strong ridging North of the flow over the Central Atlantic and back down over the UK next week. It then looks that there is a chance of a split flow, one traveling SE well to the SW of Britain and another stronger arm also moving SE over Europe.

 

In Summary following the benign conditions of the rest of this week it does look like our first taste of seasonal cold weather is on the way. What shape and form this will take differs between the output with my best stab at deducing it being that all areas look like seeing a Northerly flow with the chance of rain and showers turning wintry in places as we move through next week. It then looks like the chance of High pressure setting up a location close to the UK is favoured and with cold uppers and cold surface temperatures too freezing fog and frost could become big enough issues to become disruptive to travel should it evolve as I think it may. Longer term the Jet profile being such would suggest a return to rather cold and unsettled weather late in the period with further rain at times and snow over the hills. I would add though the trend for cold weather next week is strong today the pattern is very fluid and subject to change still over the next few days.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[That ECM]

Obviously a cooling trend but I'm not too excited by either of the options that the ECM and GFS put forward from day 8 onwards. As for the GEM, it was awful last winter.

Assuming excitement means cold/snow, I wouldn't disagree at this time. However, I am loving the fact that for the foreseeable it looks less windy and dry. IMBY more so, I appreciate.

[Gavin Hannah]

Remember the philosophy of not watching each run if its cold and snow your after..... It drove me mad last year lol.

Also, I wouldnt be surprised if the outuput re erts back to SWerlies next week, equally, it could go the other way and go full blown Arctic instead. My preference is for the latter and my gut instinct says it will happen. Though, it could just be that I'm biased lol.

[SMU]

A lot of misguided negativity today-

People taking the GFS and GEM as gospel, but also some having to high expectations of what we could possibly get out if this-

The GFS is rubbish as usual all over the shop like the 18z and 00z totally clueless- my avatar has never been so correct-'

The ECM looks to lead the way with the pattern I expect, ( remember cold from the 20th with a toned down version of 2005 )

This pattern looks to be a west based northerly with synoptics that look pretty good but the cold not of a substantial depth to bring to much wintryness away from scotland and the north-

Look at the pattern and trending from the ECM though it doesnt flatten the ridge - it wants to hold it in situ for a day or 2 before some sort of movement E towards scandi

I suspect again then we will end up with pretty good synoptics but not 'that' cold upper air....

What that does is set up a backwask where you then get a chance of a retrograde high back towards greenland and a stronger northerly-

That though spans days 8-16 though-

The GFS ( more so 18z & 6z ) will want to topple the high over the Uk quickly because the model cannot resolve split energy- it will only present 1 solution of energy going over the top

As a result the atlantic will get flattened over the Uk as opposed to being nearer scandi....

Chances of seeing snow for the Uk in under 10 days

Scotland 60% maybe NI as well

England north esp nw 35%

South. 15%

S

[shaky]

The ECM ensemble doesn't get the -5 uppers beyond the far north of England this morning

yup but further south than yesterday's 00z ecm!!everything's is hopefully slowly falling into place now.

[Captain Shortwave]

06z looking better

Better ridging in the Atlantic and whilst the main low still moves east there is a shortwave developing which will run south east through the UK

[garbagebags]

06z looking better

Better ridging in the Atlantic and whilst the main low still moves east there is a shortwave developing which will run south east through the UK

 

Much lower heights over Greenland though. Causing things to topple very very quickly. 

[Frosty.]

A lot of misguided negativity today-

S

Don't forget there is a lot of positivity as well.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[radiohead]

06Z GFS is colder at T180. Certainly some snow potential for northern parts.

 

[SMU]

The GFS ( more so 18z & 6z ) will want to topple the high over the Uk quickly because the model cannot resolve split energy- it will only present 1 solution of energy going over the topAs a result the atlantic will get flattened over the Uk as opposed to being nearer scandi....

 

A typical GFS 06z fail run.

 

ECM making it to Greenland- GFS not

http://i.huffpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/303735/slide_303735_2584699_free.gif?1371580121305

 

S

Edited November 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[summer blizzard]

Not sure what your all so depressed about. ECWMF is chilly and so is the GFS, high pressure is sufficient to force an inversion and we'd have widespread frost from the below..

 

[garbagebags]

I'm sorry for this negativity but that's an appalling run. What it does show is that (and lets be honest, this is the trend) We don't have a Block, and we aren't going to get a block. Sure a day or two of slightly below average temps, maybe a dusting for Scotland. But we most definitely are not blocked. Doesn't really look like that is going to change. 

[garbagebags]

Not sure what your all so depressed about. ECWMF is chilly and so is the GFS, high pressure is sufficient to force an inversion and we'd have widespread frost from the below..

 

 

Well deep down we are all praying the high upgrades to a greenland block. Hopes of that are looking slimmer by the day. Thats why the negativity. 

[MPG]

I'm sorry for this negativity but that's an appalling run. What it does show is that (and lets be honest, this is the trend) We don't have a Block, and we aren't going to get a block. Sure a day or two of slightly below average temps, maybe a dusting for Scotland. But we most definitely are not blocked. Doesn't really look like that is going to change. 

Its still autumn

Edited November 12, 2013 by MPG

[radiohead]

Well deep down we are all praying the high upgrades to a greenland block. Hopes of that are looking slimmer by the day. Thats why the negativity. 

 

That chance of a Greenland block happening is always going to be slim though, even more so in November.

 

An interesting end to FI though...

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by radiohead

[Frosty.]

Its stil autumn

only for 2½ weeks  models looking good for our first dig of cold air from the north with reload potential further ahead.