Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Frosty.]

Yes soon the search for double-digit Maximums by day will be a lost cause and the descent into a more seasonal (Christmassy type of pattern) should become the norm. In fact I did mention such things a few days ago in other areas of the forum. Looking forward to it, sorry mildies but at least we all could do with drying out I guess before a potential wintry onslaught for some.

I'm looking forward to posting those BBC charts when they have a huge mass of blue covering the uk with the words COLD AIR highlighted over it..bring it on.

[Ian Brown]

I'm looking forward to posting those BBC charts when they have a huge mass of blue covering the uk with the words COLD AIR highlighted over it..bring it on.

I'm not and I think they are far too simplistic. If we are in for a Dec 2010 then fair enough, but I think generally they reinforce the Express type extremist view of the weather.

[Frosty.]

I'm not and I think they are far too simplistic. If we are in for a Dec 2010 then fair enough, but I think generally they reinforce the Express type extremist view of the weather.

If darren bett is the presenter it will be the ice  icing on the cake, he never smiles when it's cold

Edited November 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[CongletonHeat]

Yes soon the search for double-digit Maximums by day will be a lost cause and the descent into a more seasonal (Christmassy type of pattern) should become the norm. In fact I did mention such things a few days ago in other areas of the forum. Looking forward to it, sorry mildies but at least we all could do with drying out I guess before a potential wintry onslaught for some.

 

No it won't, they will be back sooner rather than later.

[A.J]

Surely output verification is important when discussing models ?

 

I always thought in terms of actual statistical performance rather then personal preference / believe, the main models referred to on here are not miles apart re their actual 'performance'?

 

Although some may handle different scenarios differently as SM and others have referred to ? Surely that's part of model discussion ?

 

If you dislike a model then that should be backed up to a link with statistical evidence.

there is already a thread within this very part of the forum to discuss verification stats/model performance......

 

I was referring to the fact that this thread is solely for model output discussion, not for how poor a model is/what's your favourite model/what's your disliked model/what your favourite perturbation is/how many times you can say 'bank' in one day/how dancing smileys can be put in a post/ how many times in a single day can model summaries be cut and pasted from other websites or anything else not directly related to the words 'model output discussion'......Sorry Stew, but it drives the site team to the brink of insanity that despite so many pleas, there are members who still don't get it

 

 

rant over.....back to the output discussion

Edited November 12, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[MPG]

Yes soon the search for double-digit Maximums by day will be a lost cause and the descent into a more seasonal (Christmassy type of pattern) should become the norm. In fact I did mention such things a few days ago in other areas of the forum. Looking forward to it, sorry mildies but at least we all could do with drying out I guess before a potential wintry onslaught for some.

And back to the models....

[gottolovethisweather]

No it won't, they will be back sooner rather than later.

 

Time will tell. Anyway I will let the latest model analyses begin, will there be more dancing in the streets (proof that Frosty nicked my smilie) or are we to expect more Southwesterly influenced deluges over the coming runs. Time will tell on that account too. For anybody who remains confused, we should not forget that currently, the earliest we can expect a change is still bordering on FI, i.e. at t+144 hours or thereabouts, therefore liable to change.

And back to the models....

 

 See my post above. Well, that put me in my place.

Edited November 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

Two disappointing runs in a row from the GFS for those wanting something colder, the 00hrs and 06hrs have flattened the pattern out somewhat and with too much energy spilling over the top the high can't get far enough north before toppling. The topple point is pretty crucial here , by and large the ECM and GFS are similar in pattern but the latter has  more amplification upstream, so you get a more favourable topple with more cold air to draw on.

 

Much of the uncertainties upstream are due to what happens to the polar jet, if you read comments from NOAA this morning they mention big differences between the ECM and the GFS, in terms of the jet axis and how far south it digs into the USA and Canada.

 

Looking at the UKMO extended forecast that's not having any of what we're seeing in the operationals, that suggests a PM flow with lows tracking around the displaced high, whereas the ECM and previous GFS runs were building pressure ne towards Scandi, the implication from the UKMO is that high pressure will be anchored to the west.

[Barry12]

A good UKMO t168 if there was one, would follow from the t144?

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by Barry95

[Gaz1985]

To have a November 2010 was always going to be highly unlikely so I'm not sure why people are disappointed, we cannot expect bitter cold and snow every November. It's more likely to snow in March than November anyway. 6z Manchester ensembles looks like a very brief cold spell, nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[Snowman.]

Steve Murr you mentioned ( I cant keep highlighting enough that the GFS is pony tony in forecasting blocks to the north, but still like sheep to the slaughter all the people follow it.)

And how right you are, In my eyes most follow the GFS because it comes out four time a day plus it goes out to 384h.

 

But it would be interesting who would follow which model if the ECM came out four times a day and went out to 384h

 

GFS is a decent model but has its flaws.

 

One of them it can't handle pressure well around the northern part of the UK, last January we saw this come into effect when the GFS didn't want to drop that low South, slowly but surely it backtracked that's another thing with the GFS it doesn't just flip back it slowly backtracks wish causes a lot of us headaches and some become agitated.

 

GFS FI is amazing attempting at splitting the vortex sending heights north with the cold lingering NE. Lows go under rather than older.

 

[garbagebags]

So confussed we have certain people saying cold and snow on way then others saying not. Think i will just watch out the window

 

Basically the signals in terms of us changing pattern are excellent. FI is consistently good.The actual cold coming next week itself has been downgraded somewhat. 

[Barry12]

GFS 120

 

[SMU]

Well a better run coming from the GFS-

 

its 'close' to the ECM at 120 -  just not quite as amplified however a long way better than the 06z -

 

S

[Summer Sun]

t132 see's the cold air slowly moving south

 

[MR EXTREMES]

I had my attention caught lastnight so if it shows this type of setup without any help from any other forcing its most likely a duff run.

And like so many of the more experienced model watchers say its most likely to be to good to be true.

A 63 96 47 or 2010 winter is not likely this year and experts across the world from all types of weather centers have said the same.

The simple way of putting it it's vortex growth time and this year will most likely see many eye candy runs but most will fail because UK location it's simple really.

But a brief cold snap before we return to a more typical UK winter type.

[Barry12]

GFS 144

 

[Yarmy]

I had my attention caught lastnight so if it shows this type of setup without any help from any other forcing its most likely a duff run.

And like so many of the more experienced model watchers say its most likely to be to good to be true.

A 63 96 47 or 2010 winter is not likely this year and experts across the world from all types of weather centers have said the same.

The simple way of putting it it's vortex growth time and this year will most likely see many eye candy runs but most will fail because UK location it's simple really.

But a brief cold snap before we return to a more typical UK winter type.

 

You got all that from half a run of the GFS 12z? Dang, that model's better than I thought.

 

 

Vortex just itching to be sliced in two.

[nick sussex]

The UKMO and GFS do show differences upstream as early as T96hrs, the former does look better at that time. The GFS at T156hrs again looks too flat, we need to see more interaction between the polar jet and that shortwave.

[radiohead]

Colder on the 12Z GFS by T162 with snow showers in Scotland and possibly NI.

 

 

T168, -10 uppers touching Scotland, -8 extending down to southwest Ireland.

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by radiohead

[Barry12]

GFS 168 - Much better!

 

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

 

COLD

 

-10c as far south as Yorkshire & still more upgrades to come in terms of longevity...

 

S

[radiohead]

By T180 the cold air has extended further south, from -6 on the south coast to -10 in Scotland.

 

 

North Sea shower activity showing up.

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by radiohead

[Barry12]

GFS T180, -8 uppers in Scotland and Northern England!

 

 

Beat me to it radiohead!

Edited November 12, 2013 by Barry95

[MR EXTREMES]

ukmo t96 flat as a pancake fail attempt from the ukmo long drawn westerlies.

cant post charts for some strange reason normally copy paste.

Edited November 12, 2013 by model rollercoaster