Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM toppling too now. Still a good 4 days next week

 

 

Pressure remaining low over Europe though, should allow LPs to dig SEwards and promote a second bite of the cherry. Watch for this at 240hrs.

[Barry12]

ECM toppling too now. Still a good 4 days next week

 

 

Still cold

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Pressure remaining low over Europe though, should allow LPs to dig SEwards and promote a second bite of the cherry. Watch for this at 240hrs.

doubtful looking at the profile to the NW ...

[bluearmy]

as per yesterdays ecm op run, i think T168/t192 is as far as is worth looking with any detail. pretty complex upstream.

[Jason T]

Question...Can anyone please explain why the GFS Picks up the trend, Then goes completely the other way when the other big 2 jump on board.

 

Thank you.

[Panayiotis]

The high is expected to topple! But it may get driven over to Scandi allowing an easterly to setup, the past CFS runs show this...

 

[SMU]

* Garbage bags the ECM is not toppling- Its going exactly to plan with the ridge across to scand which will then allow the retrograde back NW as the next low moves into Scandi-

* Happy days- do you insist on posting stuff to wind people up- people we need to change your name to miserable ..........

 

ECM 240 shows a clasic reloading pattern for day 12- sadly most of the pessimists on here cant see further than the end of their nose.

 

 

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

* Garbage bags the ECM is not toppling- Its going exactly to plan with the ridge across to scand which will then allow the retrograde back NW as the next low moves into Scandi-

* Happy days- do you insist on posting stuff to wind people up- people we need to change your name to miserable ..........

 

ECM 240 shows a clasic reloading pattern for day 12- sadly most of the pessimists on here cant see further than the end of their nose.

 

 

S

 

Thought as much Steve. Some people seem to lack the ability to read between the lines, as it were.

[garbagebags]

* Garbage bags the ECM is not toppling- Its going exactly to plan with the ridge across to scand which will then allow the retrograde back NW as the next low moves into Scandi-

* Happy days- do you insist on posting stuff to wind people up- people we need to change your name to miserable ..........

 

ECM 240 shows a clasic reloading pattern for day 12- sadly most of the pessimists on here cant see further than the end of their nose.

 

 

S

Just because it topples into a good location doesnt mean it doesnt topple. Im sorry but for what we were hoping might become a greenland high, it has toppled.  

Edited November 12, 2013 by garbagebags

[AWD]

As has been forecast many times from the more knowledgable on this thread, we are looking at a MLB scenario rather than a HLB one.

The EC Det tonight is a perfectly reasonable solution for the next 10 days or so. (Not saying it will happen like that though).

What it does provide all of us is a period of colder than average weather with (local detail pending) frosts and fog. It also provides northern areas (especially but not exclusively, elevated areas) with an opportunity of the first snows of the season.

Bearing in mind it's only November and bearing in mind the current stratospheric conditons, it's a much better scenario than what we could have from a cold perspective.

As expected, the EC Det "topples" the high in its later output, but that's not necessarily the end of the story. Heights remain low across Europe, the Atlantic pattern remains amplified and the PV remains disturbed. This will provide further FI eye candy to keep this thread ticking over for the foreseeable with the possibility of further ridging to our west/north west.

The pattern is a million miles away from Bartlett territory. A negative NAO pattern becoming established across the NH, perhaps west based at times admittedly. Should easily be a good continuation to the Scottish Skiing Industry.

Personally, compared to a week or so ago, I'm rather looking forward to the next 4 weeks or so of weather. It ain't going to be warm folks!

Edited November 12, 2013 by AWD

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Thought as much Steve. Some people seem to lack the ability to read between the lines, as it were.

imo the 240h ecm is  poor chart going forward.

[Barry12]

Happy days, please read my signature

 

ECM looks good with -6/-8 uppers crossing the UK, bringing some cold and possible snowy conditions, which is still very good for November even if it does topple in the end.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Barry95

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Happy days, please read my signature

 

ECM looks good with -6/-8 uppers crossing the UK, bringing some cold and possible snowy conditions.

not sure -6 -8 uppers are enough with the irish sea to modify the flow in mid november,maybe higher elevations on westward facing coasts will do OK.

[Ian Brown]

i disagree,but thats what these forums are for.

The High has toppled over the UK by T240 but look at the very low heights over Europe - it would either remain at mid-latitude or set up another cold shot.

[Ian Brown]

not sure -6 -8 uppers are enough with the irish sea to modify the flow in mid november,maybe higher elevations on westward facing coasts will do OK.

Yes, the Irish Sea can turn things the wrong side of marginal as late as early December from such set-ups.

[SMU]

People ususal define toppling by the fact that high pressure ends up back over the UK or south of the UK-

 

At day 10 The high has gone from the classic ridge shape ( stretched ) to a bit more circular ) as the low over the pole moves east along its northern flank)

 

however look at the energy over the eastern seaboard- its going SSE not NNE - which means that area will soon fill with pressure & that high will once again move back NW, as it does it will pull back a Northerly flow-

a double dip outlook -

 

There will of course be a milder wedge at somepoint as cold is replaced by mild then replaced by cold again-

 

So is it a toppler- well not by most peoples definition, is the first phase of cold going to result in a greenland HLB- no, however the second phase has a much higher chance due to the energy flow off the eastern seaboard being south as opposed to North east when the first high tries to get to greenland-

 

you could say the high pressure ridges North, then gets sheared across the top which allows a slight topple EASTWARDS then the expectation would be migration back NW....

 

anyway I dont know how many times I can write this in different ways- thats the forecast from day 7 to day 14.- 16

 

S

[cooling climate]

I could see a progression from the ECM t240 chart towards

a easterly type flow in the extended output but I very much

doubt that t168 is nailed yet never mind beyond 10 days.

But I to like the looks of where the ECM run is heading.

[radiohead]

imo the 240h ecm is  poor chart going forward.

 

Not as poor as the chance of a T240 chart verifying. Or the next 0Z T240 chart in the morning, which will look different again...

[nick sussex]

Well after the GFS the ECM looks quite nice with that important low pressure over Italy. For newbies this acts to stop the high from sinking, its really one of the most important features to see if you don't like mild weather!

 

Overall I'd still like to see more amplification upstream and there is still some uncertainty over the USA and Canada so still lots of time for changes.

[UV-RAY]

As a few have pointed out ( thought the words fall, deaf and ears springs to mind ) with low heights over Europe then those heights won't be toppling anywhere anytime soon with plenty of chances for numerous bites of the cherry. How cold, how snowy are all irrelevant at this early stage, the outlook is for cold to take hold from early next week, until then lots of chopping and changing on where, why and when.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[mountain shadow]

What the low heights over Europe also do is retain the colder air on its North East flank so that if we do get a second bite and perhaps an Easterly the cold air is hopefully already in place to move West.

Edited November 12, 2013 by mountain shadow

[Summer Sun]

GEM remains one of the least cold models this evening

 

[Paul]

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Thanks

 

Paul

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows the cold shot next week but of course the details are vague, however, most of the 12z perturbations are trending anticyclonic towards T+240 hours and then there is a split beyond that point, around ½ & ½ between unsettled and settled, this is reflected by the T+384 hours chart. so, a colder unsettled spell for the first half of next week and then turning more settled with fog and frost becoming the main weather type. I'm not sure how reliable an indicator all this is, I still think we will have reloads from the northwest / north / northeast separated by brief settled interludes.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[shuggee]

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