Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[gottolovethisweather]

Some runs were going for -8 uppers for parts of the UK, for November that's darn cold.

 

I'm not sure if you were agreeing with others or not but there was some -10 uppers in the 12z run according to SM but alas, all will be revealed when the timescales we are talking about actually arrive. As it stands we are still talking about the lower reaches of FI even now. As JH alluded too, the nearer-term is something akin to drier, cooler if not a damn bit colder away from England, I'll take all that with open arms right now.

Edited November 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Gaz1985]

Well there was a -10 too according to SM but alas, all will be revealed by the timescales we are talking about which are way into the lower reaches of FI even now. As JH alluded too, the nearer-term is something akin to drier, cooler if not a damn bit colder away from England, I'll take all that with open arms right now.

 

Indeed I think we'll have a better idea of what might come in a few more days and more runs.

[SomeLikeItHot]

I was referring to the 6z Manchester runs I posted not long before. Also everything that is bitter is still in FI, nothing has changed in that regard has it? 6 days to a week away is not reliable things can change.

 

 

Generally 6am is called morning but anyway.

 

Depends were FI is. Cold is about a day less FI than it was yesterday.

You are right that its not locked in stone, but it is not like its at 240hrs+ though either. 

[Purga]

Splendid day for hill walking in Scotland which is where I will be on that date!

 

But it doesn't last long as we start entering Bartlett territory - LOL

 

 

Still pressure looks OK over Greenland but could end up a West based -ve NAO. All academic as it won't verify.

[Gaz1985]

Generally 6am is called morning but anyway.

 

Depends were FI is. Cold is about a day less FI than it was yesterday.

You are right that its not locked in stone, but it is not like its at 240hrs+ though either. 

 

I posted the 6z because the Manchester 12z ensembles still haven't updated so I think that's where your confusion comes from. Also some people have posted this chart below which is 264hrs - take what you will from that lol. 

 

 

And it's not until tuesday that the -5 line gets into Manchester area on 12z GFS, that's a full week away and most people would regard as FI.

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Cheshire Freeze]

By 204 hrs the 12z ensemble suite is even flatter with the pattern than the 06z

 

[NorthernRab]

Splendid day for hill walking in Scotland which is where I will be on that date!

 

 

But it doesn't last long as we start entering Bartlett territory - LOL

 

 

Still pressure looks OK over Greenland but could end up a West based -ve NAO. All academic as it won't verify.

 

 

The term Bartlett is greatly overused on this forum - you won't get a proper Bartlett with pressure that high over Greenland and eastern Canada. 

[bluearmy]

The stratosphere temperature has risen very quickly lately a possible reason why the models are taking their time to get the hang of things,

 

Strat.png

 

 

Thats quite low down at 70hpa WM.  likely caused by upwelling/wave breaking from the trop so not strat led.  probably caused by the aleutian ridge sending waves into the lower strat. not a strat cause for any upcoming trop vortex disruption

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

By 204 hrs the 12z ensemble suite is even flatter with the pattern than the 06z

 

That looks awful.

[radiohead]

UKMO at T144

 

 

GFS for comparison :

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by radiohead

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the UKMO finally made it 

..........You win this round radiohead

Edited November 12, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Panayiotis]

UKMO at 144hr is very similar to the 00z ECM.

[The PIT]

WOW FI cold snap I can even post a snow risk chart. The remaining leaves should get removed this Wednesday and Thursday. Anyway it does look like we will get a bit of a change in the weather as high pressure builds to west of us.

[bluearmy]

That looks awful.

 

it does ? mean trough over central europe and mid atlantic ridge. 'what exactly were you expecting to see out of a torquay hotel window '?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Total dismantling of the vortex in deep fi with big areas of high pressure across the poles, now how about that to be a trend setter? More runs needed but tentative signs of blocking across polar regions have been shown at different times which goes against the stratosphere profile , the Atlantic and pacific ridge may well increase wave 2 activity into the poles , hence the destruction of the PV. Very interesting

[phil nw.]

Certainly signs of some Atlantic ridging in the coming week with that split jet.

Scotland will likely see some cold from this although down in my neck of the woods the Ens graph looks pretty average.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=266&ext=1&y=97&run=12&runpara=0

 

We will have to wait to see if the pattern amplifies further  as there's still time.However at the moment there's plenty of energy going over the top.

 

[Gavin Hannah]

The period of the 18th - 21st looks like it could be bringing some nice seasonal weather with a lovely northerly / north westerly.  The Mid atlantic ridging is very interesting. 

 

 

In deep FI, but on the above chart, it almost tries to link up into Greenland.  If only...

 

Must point out, it is only one run and this is from the previous run for the same time.

 

 

Evidence of why watching individual runs is futile.

Edited November 12, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM more amplified than even the UKMO, looking good

That will do nicely

Edited November 12, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Barry12]

Very nice

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by Barry95

[radiohead]

ECM doesn't have quite as cold uppers as the GFS at T168, but a couple of degrees make little difference at this range.

[garbagebags]

ECM doesn't have quite as cold uppers as the GFS at T168, but a couple of degrees make little difference at this range.

Not to worry...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

looks like  north westerly on ecm.Not sure its cold enough for the vast majority of low lying areas though 

[phil nw.]

Some posts that were basically off topic chat have gone.

Let's have some reasoned posts please as some recent contributions are more suited to other threads.

Please ask yourselves if your comments adds to model discussion before posting in this thread.

 

Thanks all.

[garbagebags]

ECM toppling too now. Still a good 4 days next week

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

hopefully a decent couple of days for nw britain but i see little appetite for HLB in the output at present.