Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[nick sussex]

GFS 168 - Much better!

 

You have to factor in the GFS bias with 850's at that range, it overdoes the cold, the only time it gets close is when you have a proper Greenland high, personally I'm totally underwhelmed by the GFS 12hrs. The high never gets far enough north and theres too much energy spilling over the top.

[Captain Shortwave]

Solid enough cold blast by the GFS, even I would quite possibly get snow off that 

Not bad for November if it came off and I still feel the GFS is handling that shortwave wrong which could result in better results.

[SMU]

ukmo t96 flat as a pancake fail attempt from the ukmo long drawn westerlies.

cant post charts for some strange reason normally copy paste.

wait to the 120 & 144

 

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

You have to factor in the GFS bias with 850's at that range, it overdoes the cold, the only time it gets close is when you have a proper Greenland high, personally I'm totally underwhelmed by the GFS 12hrs. The high never gets far enough north and theres too much energy spilling over the top.

 

I'm in the same boat as you Nick. Synoptic wise it's pants. As you say, those 850s would be watered down somewhat as we near the event. Looks a glorified toppler to me with the pattern as flat as a witches t*t behind the ridge (I couldn't draw a straighter line with a ruler). Hope the GFS has this one wrong.

[mpkio2]

Look at last nights 18z CFS 1 month-

 

it looks exactly like the ECM at 240, which then goes through the cycle I mentioned in my post above in days 8-16

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

Hit ANIM

 

 

Also of note the GFS isn't modelling a return to atlantic conditions- even though its firing random bullets all over the place like a gatling gun its seeing the vortex becoming weaker- which in terms of the stratosphere being at -80c is not what is to be expected ( & also highlights the difficulty of using the strat for seasonal forecasting)

 

I cant keep highlighting enough that the GFS is pony tony in forecasting blocks to the north, but still like sheep to the slaughter all the people follow it.

 

I give up.

I agree. I think the GFS is too progressive with the Atlantic. If I remember straight, last Winter in mid-January, the GFS wanted to sweep the block away from the north with the Atlantic train. It was wrong and the block held to the end of January. However, I do believe the GFS is good at picking up trends

[Panayiotis]

-

Edited November 12, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

Perhaps FI will bring a bit more excitement!

 

[SMU]

Waiting for a mega FI courtesy of the GFS almost working it out....

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111212/gfsnh-0-228.png?12

 

here we go - as said last night retrograde block + split flow across the pole = bye bye vortex.,

[MR EXTREMES]

very much agree nick its a cold shot at best first taste of something wintry across the country but both ukmo and gfs in the latter stages flatten heights and most likely a return to what we have now after a few days of cold.

 

not bad for November though.

be asking to much for deep cold spell to last through out anyway as it is only November.

[radiohead]

Well....

 

[nick sussex]

The main problem with the GFS is once again its too flat and the comments from NOAA have to be taken into account with the polar jet, preferably we want this to engage the shortwave moving east across the Rockies, we don't want a weak feature, the high needs some help to get further north and so we need to see a more developed low with a more favourable tilt.

[Yarmy]

 

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111212/gfs-0-264.png?12

 

SNOW. Moving south.

[Barry12]

GFS 264

 

[Met4Cast]

Between 252 and 264 a 1050mb Greenland high vanishes. Seems realistic..

[weatherguy]

Holy mother of God...If that came off...

 

 

Aaaaand the GH vanishes.  Illogical in my mind at that stage of the run.  

 

Still looking to see the GFS come more in line with the ECM anyway; I always back the ECM over GFS when it comes to northern blocking.  Remember the jaffa cakes poor attempts to steamroll the atlantic in every god damn run last March, when in fact the block to the NE held for what seemed like an eternity? 

Edited November 12, 2013 by weatherguy

[garbagebags]

I think we just have to come to terms with the fact that although it's going to be cold, even bitter. Its going to be very short lived. People say look for trends. Well the overriding trend is that this high will topple almost immediately.

[johnholmes]

Two disappointing runs in a row from the GFS for those wanting something colder, the 00hrs and 06hrs have flattened the pattern out somewhat and with too much energy spilling over the top the high can't get far enough north before toppling. The topple point is pretty crucial here , by and large the ECM and GFS are similar in pattern but the latter has  more amplification upstream, so you get a more favourable topple with more cold air to draw on.

 

Much of the uncertainties upstream are due to what happens to the polar jet, if you read comments from NOAA this morning they mention big differences between the ECM and the GFS, in terms of the jet axis and how far south it digs into the USA and Canada.

 

Looking at the UKMO extended forecast that's not having any of what we're seeing in the operationals, that suggests a PM flow with lows tracking around the displaced high, whereas the ECM and previous GFS runs were building pressure ne towards Scandi, the implication from the UKMO is that high pressure will be anchored to the west.

 

If you have any belief in the predictive capacity of the 500mb anomaly charts, an upper ridge and consequently a surface ridge close to the same area has always been west of not east of the UK in terms of giving somewhat colder weather. There has never been any sign of an upper ridge in the Scaninavia region?

[nick sussex]

Perhaps FI will bring a bit more excitement!

 

More jam tomorrow! lol We've been here before, both the ECM and GFS have been teasing in their outer reaches and I'm frankly bored of them both, I'd rather we saw something concrete within 168hrs, hopefully the ECM can pull out more amplification and at least get that high further north.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS even manages to muck up a dead cert GH in FI

 

[MR EXTREMES]

yummy chart best chart in years nice call steve can we nail this evolution most likely not but that would be an extreme arctic blast across the country.

[Gaz1985]

Everything that's bitterly cold or snowy seems to be getting pushed back into FI, that's the only trend I can see this evening.

[AWD]

Everything that's bitterly cold or snowy seems to be getting pushed back into FI, that's the only trend I can see this evening.

Good job winter is still in FI then!

[nick sussex]

If you have any belief in the predictive capacity of the 500mb anomaly charts, an upper ridge and consequently a surface ridge close to the same area has always been west of not east of the UK in terms of giving somewhat colder weather. There has never been any sign of an upper ridge in the Scaninavia region?

 The operationals and some of the ensembles did have a decent high topple towards Scandi which would give a chance of some cold in from the east, not a proper Scandi high so I agree with you there. But that won't happen unless the high gets far enough north initially and theres less energy spilling over the top.

[Frosty.]

After a Gfs 12z run like this, there is only one thing to do..............  SEN FLIPPIN SATIONAL