Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[SMU]

Look at last nights 18z CFS 1 month-

 

it looks exactly like the ECM at 240, which then goes through the cycle I mentioned in my post above in days 8-16

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

Hit ANIM

 

 

Also of note the GFS isn't modelling a return to atlantic conditions- even though its firing random bullets all over the place like a gatling gun its seeing the vortex becoming weaker- which in terms of the stratosphere being at -80c is not what is to be expected ( & also highlights the difficulty of using the strat for seasonal forecasting)

 

I cant keep highlighting enough that the GFS is pony tony in forecasting blocks to the north, but still like sheep to the slaughter all the people follow it.

 

I give up.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Captain Shortwave]

Well deep down we are all praying the high upgrades to a greenland block. Hopes of that are looking slimmer by the day. Thats why the negativity. 

Given a lobe of the polar vortex is moving through Northern Canada by day 7, then the Greenland block looks unlikely, what we need to look for is the formation of a high to our North east as the Atlantic ridge topples over a deep trough in the Med.

The GFS is far to keen to send a low forming over Canada straight towards Greenland with it seemingly not engaging the cold pool crossing the north of the country. The ECM on the other hand makes the low engage the cold unstable air, which causes it to deepen and curve more northwards up the west side of Greenland, providing a stronger ridge which collapses more slowly. The ECM I believe is handling this at least the closest to the correct solution.

Probably best someone does some MS paint job to illustrate this, my artistic talents are at best negligible 

[garbagebags]

Given a lobe of the polar vortex is moving through Northern Canada by day 7, then the Greenland block looks unlikely, what we need to look for is the formation of a high to our North east as the Atlantic ridge topples over a deep trough in the Med.

The GFS is far to keen to send a low forming over Canada straight towards Greenland with it seemingly not engaging the cold pool crossing the north of the country. The ECM on the other hand makes the low engage the cold unstable air, which causes it to deepen and curve more northwards up the west side of Greenland, providing a stronger ridge which collapses more slowly. The ECM I believe is handling this at least the closest to the correct solution.

Probably best someone does some MS paint job to illustrate this, my artistic talents are at best negligible 

 

For purely selfish reasons. I have no interest in an Easterly. Last year we didn't have a single falling flake here after 7th December. And Easterlies were the reason.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

i think this one is a slow burner.

Piece 1 of the jigsaw is to get low heights over southern Europe.

After that a waiting game ..

[john mac]

Look at last nights 18z CFS 1 month-

 

it looks exactly like the ECM at 240, which then goes through the cycle I mentioned in my post above in days 8-16

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

Hit ANIM

 

 

Also of note the GFS isn't modelling a return to atlantic conditions- even though its firing random bullets all over the place like a gatling gun its seeing the vortex becoming weaker- which in terms of the stratosphere being at -80c is not what is to be expected ( & also highlights the difficulty of using the strat for seasonal forecasting)

 

I cant keep highlighting enough that the GFS is pony tony in forecasting blocks to the north, but still like sheep to the slaughter all the people follow it.

 

I give up.

i know mate,

I think some people just follow it more because there are more runs each day on the pony GFS. 

Still its only mid november. lol

[Dancerwithwings]

There's enthusiasm and then there's Frosty enthusiasm

Still looking good, Not as good as yesterday, But at least were not

looking at a boring S/SW

[shedhead]

Well deep down we are all praying the high upgrades to a greenland block. Hopes of that are looking slimmer by the day. Thats why the negativity. 

For the reasons given several times earlier in this Fred any Greenland block was always looking unlikely rather than likely...and to be fair it still is. Clearly GFS is starting to diverge somewhat from ECM and again not unsurprisingly we're hearing the same old arguements about how the model showing the coldest solution is most likely to be right, but the fact is we're still a week away from any POSSIBLE change. So plenty more water still to pass under the bridge before the correct evolution is nailed for the final 3rd of Nov, but imo GFS should not be treated with quite so much disdain, especially at this range.

[seabreeze86]

Cant agree more with the post by Steve Murr. If you have spent a few years on this forum you will know how bad the GFS is at handling any sort of blocking to the north. Last year when energy went under the block the GFS took multiple runs to get it right. Different situation i know but same idea. 

 

All models struggle with blocking but the GFS shows the same floors every year. Thats why most forecasters in the USA use the ECM.

 

The fact we have low pressure over southern Europe, the atlantic slowing down and the azores high being displaced are all good signs .if its cold weather your after. Good trends showing up, looking for detail at long range is futile.

[Panayiotis]

Look at last nights 18z CFS 1 month-

 

it looks exactly like the ECM at 240, which then goes through the cycle I mentioned in my post above in days 8-16

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

Hit ANIM

 

 

Also of note the GFS isn't modelling a return to atlantic conditions- even though its firing random bullets all over the place like a gatling gun its seeing the vortex becoming weaker- which in terms of the stratosphere being at -80c is not what is to be expected ( & also highlights the difficulty of using the strat for seasonal forecasting)

 

I cant keep highlighting enough that the GFS is pony tony in forecasting blocks to the north, but still like sheep to the slaughter all the people follow it.

 

I give up.

I can completely agree with your last three posts, especially where you mention the high over the Atlantic ridging over and into Scandi. The third row of my CFS 'archive' is complete and a trend has surely been seen! 

[Ian Brown]

i think this one is a slow burner.

Piece 1 of the jigsaw is to get low heights over southern Europe.

After that a waiting game ..

 

Yes, low heights over Europe essentially prevents a return to mild, but with low heights at Northern latitude we are not going to get HLB either.

 

Garbagebags - it's going to be a long winter for you if you agonise over each run like this - especially the GFS 06z.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run shows it turning significantly colder next week with some areas having snow showers and frosts become widespread, high pressure and less cold uppers then follow but surface cold persists with fog and frost, nothing even approaching mild once the cold uppers depart and then we have reload potential. the 6z can't pull the trigger but it certainly has an itchy finger. I think we are going to continue seeing weather charts overflowing with cold potential from now on.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[Biggin]

Can I ask, do the models all start say with the same info from the same places at day 1 and then decide whats gonna happen or do different models get different info from different places??   Is there a bias say for the ECM to use  more local info ie Europe and the GFS more local to itself. thus not botherering as much with calculations further away from themselves. Ie does the GFS get the weather spot on at home and the ECM spot on for Europe?? Sorry for the long post Hope I have explained myself sufficiently

[garbagebags]

Yes, low heights over Europe essentially prevents a return to mild, but with low heights at Northern latitude we are not going to get HLB either.

 

Garbagebags - it's going to be a long winter for you if you agonise over each run like this - especially the GFS 06z.

 

Oh you don't need to tell me that. It's a nightmare. I just cant take down grading, I watch every frame as it comes out next to previous run and check every minute change in pressure and temp. Looking for changes. 

...ive even been known to have a ruler up to the screen....    

[snowking]

I'm sorry for this negativity but that's an appalling run. What it does show is that (and lets be honest, this is the trend) We don't have a Block, and we aren't going to get a block. Sure a day or two of slightly below average temps, maybe a dusting for Scotland. But we most definitely are not blocked. Doesn't really look like that is going to change. 

I think the thing to remember here GB is that nobody has realistically suggested such a scenario.

 

There have been numerous warnings from various people throughout the last week about not getting too caught up in the excitement and having higher expectations of the upcoming cold snap than warranted.

 

But as Summer Blizzard points out above any toppling high looks likely to set up an inversion over the UK - crisp, dry days, frosty nights (assuming we don't get too much cloud trapped underneath). You can't realistically ask for much more than that at this time of year other than in the most extreme of circumstances

 

SK

[Yarmy]

Can I ask, do the models all start say with the same info from the same places at day 1 and then decide whats gonna happen or do different models get different info from different places??   Is there a bias say for the ECM to use  more local info ie Europe and the GFS more local to itself. thus not botherering as much with calculations further away from themselves. Ie does the GFS get the weather spot on at home and the ECM spot on for Europe?? Sorry for the long post Hope I have explained myself sufficiently

 

GFS got the track for Sandy wrong while ECM nailed it, I believe. A big embarrassment over the pond. 

[radiohead]

Personally, I think Perturbation 14 has nailed it. 

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS got the track for Sandy wrong while ECM nailed it, I believe. A big embarrassment over the pond. 

 

Yes your spot on, this is one of the reason's why GFS is going to get an upgrade in the near future

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z perturbations are loaded up with wintry potential with snow and sharp frosts in the forecast if any of them verify, there are other charts which ooze potential for future cold and there are not many flat mild options, there are some cold anticyclonic charts with fog and frost. The bottom line is, it will turn significantly colder into next week and there is the potential for cold reloads as we move into late november and early december. 

[Dancerwithwings]

Steve Murr you mentioned ( I cant keep highlighting enough that the GFS is pony tony in forecasting blocks to the north, but still like sheep to the slaughter all the people follow it.)

And how right you are, In my eyes most follow the GFS because it comes out four time a day plus it goes out to 384h.

 

But it would be interesting who would follow which model if the ECM came out four times a day and went out to 384h

Edited November 12, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[SMU]

PTB 5 looks most like the ECM- all be it a little to far SE on the toppler

 

but the evolution is what I was presenting earlier when I said day 8-16

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

S

Actually PTB 19 is spot on to the ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

Edited November 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[shedhead]

I think the thing to remember here GB is that nobody has realistically suggested such a scenario.

 

There have been numerous warnings from various people throughout the last week about not getting too caught up in the excitement and having higher expectations of the upcoming cold snap than warranted.

 

But as Summer Blizzard points out above any toppling high looks likely to set up an inversion over the UK - crisp, dry days, frosty nights (assuming we don't get too much cloud trapped underneath). You can't realistically ask for much more than that at this time of year other than in the most extreme of circumstances

 

SK

Spot on SK.....as every winter it's all about managing expectations. If you expect snow and ice every time the progs suggest its likely or even possible in 8-10 days time, you are gonna end up very dejected come Feb 28th..irrespective of which model you think is top dog.

Edited November 12, 2013 by shedhead

[MPG]

Spot on SK.....as every winter it's all about managing expectations. If you expect snow and ice every time the progs suggest its likely or even possible in 8-10 days time, you are gonna end up very dejected come Feb 28th..irrespective of which model you think is top dog.

 

 

The output is looking promising from a cold point of view. Cold nights and frosts for the many with snow in the north, nice little taster as we enter winter. Compared to this time last year its extremely better.

[A.J]

A friendly reminder that this thread is to actually discuss the model outputs, posts about how people favour one model over another and on output verification performance are best suited to other threads within the NetWeather forums....thanks

[Panayiotis]

If no one remembers what Nov 2005 was like here was the forecast:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX8kwIkJjJY

 As Steve says we are expecting something similar for NEXT WEEK but not to this extreme extent therefore it will not be *as cold*.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Frosty.]

Looking towards the end of the GEFS 06z perturbations, there is a very wintry flavour with reloading arctic blasts from the northwest / north / northeast, the GEFS 06z mean reflects this, it certainly ain't mild. I think coldies have a lot more to look forward to than we could dare to dream of when that dismal mild mush outlook for november was issued, at the end of october, beginning of november there was nothing for coldies to look forward to..................THERE IS NOW .