Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

and as I said this morning the ukmo was slower than the rest even slower than the ecm why would the ukmo be right ian we cant see beyond t144 id rather not second guess beyond with the ukmo.

 

whats intresting that the gem nav gem gfs and gefs all seem to have ideas but all are cold.

although this would not be the first time for a failed attempt over the years and there absolutely an artic blast on its way either way its not the end as all models suggest modification of the upper air it will still be chilly at the surface with frost and fog and for me I cant grumble.

 

the first push of cold air is nailed and every model suggests low heights into Europe so unless uncle barty starts to party I don't see nothing remotely blowtorch I hate that term.

 

im happy with the models are I expect the ecm will flip and ruin our cold chances tonight but its November plenty of time yet.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Oh BTW the GFS control gets even better. I'd defy anyone to draw a better chart than that. Quite possibly the most stunning retrograde/reverse zonal flow I've ever seen.......ever

 

Posted Image

 

Oh BTW the GFS control gets even better. I'd defy anyone to draw a better chart than that. Quite possibly the most stunning retrograde/reverse zonal flow I've ever seen.......ever

 

Posted Image

yes but would it snow in sheffield????Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image sorry mods!its my birthday todayPosted Image

Edited by swfc
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Looks like the gfs control run has gone bonkers.thats never gona happen. I wish.

 

If it does happen get your snow shovels ready. Might even need a JCB if that run came off.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

 

ITS ALL ABOUT THE SAUSAGE!

 

 

I agree steve, it's all about the sausage.Posted Image

 

12z has delivered another gfs upgrade, the ecm 00z mean is peachy, as is the gem 00z, and darren bett is ramping up snow and bitter cold, let's bask in the warm glow of knowing our first arctic blast is only 4 days awayPosted Image Posted Image

post-4783-0-04516200-1384450920_thumb.jp

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Theres actually not many charts in HISTORY that beat that

 

full  global reverse circulation around the pole ( maybe the express was right lol)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-360.png?12

 

Personally I'd save that run for the archives. I can't think of many better charts and for me it even beats 'that ECM' in terms of the stunning synoptics on show there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
forecaster Enthusiast

forecaster

Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Oh BTW the GFS control gets even better. I'd defy anyone to draw a better chart than that. Quite possibly the most stunning retrograde/reverse zonal flow I've ever seen.......ever

 

Posted Image

 

 

Easterly is still zonal :)

 

I agree it is quite astonishing to see that, despite being at unreliable range. People seem to like printing various arbitrary perturbations, but the control run should be one of the most skillful members of the ensemble, hence pretty interesting to see this outcome! 

Edited by forecaster
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

yes but would it snow in sheffield????Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image sorry mods!its my birthday todayPosted Image

 

If that came off it would be everybodies birthday and yes you would be buried. Posted Image

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

If that came off it would be everybodies birthday and yes you would be buried. Posted Image

I think I can see an SOS flag on that chart from Gavin's house.
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
Posted

Oh BTW the GFS control gets even better. I'd defy anyone to draw a better chart than that. Quite possibly the most stunning retrograde/reverse zonal flow I've ever seen.......ever

 

Posted Image

WOW took me a few mins to pick my jaw up off the floor.......that is a stunning chart yes its FI yes it may never verify...but even a watered down version of this would be perfectly fine by me......

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

yes but would it snow in sheffield????Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image sorry mods!its my birthday todayPosted Image

 

Would it snow in Sheffield?? A lot of the country would be trying to dig themselves out of their houses until Christmas probably! The bedroom window would become the new front door!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

Posted ImagePosted Image  63 would be the closest match I should imagine and that kicked of after Christmas not November its all about the sausage add some bacon and you have a full English winter lol.

 

im dreading the ecm its like watching penalties but in all honesty can gem gfs nav gem gefs surely they cant all be wrong can they Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

So my last one- im cranking up the gym before I explode-

 

the UKMO is slower & COULD be poor & it doesn't seem to allow the wave to reach a decent amplitude into Greenland & the low is the atlantic is going ENE not SE

 

this would put a stop in the SHORT term to blocking, however even if it turns out to be true like the ECM will go on in the long term to get blocked anyway-

 

however as said if we get any sausage blocking flat in 60N then at some point it will send the jet at the western end vertical-

hence all those awesome control run charts

 

phase 1 of cold is nailed- phase 2 - not yet-  need ALL the euros on board.

 

we will know by 12z tomorrow as the spoiler low is at 120.

 

S

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

If it does happen get your snow shovels ready. Might even need a JCB if that run came off.

damn right crewecold!!frikkin hell ive just gone through the whole of the control run and I must say that is scary!!just imagine if it did come off!!frikkin ice age!!!!!never seen a run like it unless u go back to the 70s or 80s I think!!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

The ECM is massive tonight.

If it goes down the same route as the Ukmo then all the models will follow suit tomorrow, if it favours the solution the others are throwing out then I expect to see the first BOOOOOOM of the winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

The ECM is massive tonight.

If it goes down the same route as the Ukmo then all the models will follow suit tomorrow, if it favours the solution the others are throwing out then I expect to see the first BOOOOOOM of the winter.

 

If the ECM decides it wants to follow the GFS runs of today then I may start to raise an eyebrow Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skyraker Aficionado

Skyraker

Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
Posted

You've drawn that yourself... haven't you.  Posted Image

 

 

Oh BTW the GFS control gets even better. I'd defy anyone to draw a better chart than that. Quite possibly the most stunning retrograde/reverse zonal flow I've ever seen.......ever

 

Posted Image

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Id be staggered if the ukmo is off the mark but very happy !maybe the ecm wil be in the middle ground which to be fair woudnt be that badPosted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites
terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Has anyone else got that sinking feeling regarding the upcoming ecm. Think i might watch it roll out from behind the sofa. If it does follow the ukmo  then i would really expect the other models to fall in line with it by tommorows runs. But hopefully it wont let us down? will it????????

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 

 

the UKMO is slower & COULD be poor & it doesn't seem to allow the wave to reach a decent amplitude into Greenland & the low is the atlantic is going ENE not SE

 

 

 

S

 

the depression moves ne but the energy looks to head se and i would expect the low to then move more s of east at T168.  we'll see in 20 mins on ecm anyway.  i cant see phase 1 bringing much more than transitory snowfall away from the north and high ground so i'm far more interested in phase two the following week. whatever transpires, it will be more than seasonal for the time of year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...