Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Cheshire Freeze]

I agree. 

 

At this stage I tend to think that the ECM/UKMO are the models we should be following, but glancing a cautionary eye over the GFS updates. I think we can safely say that 'nothing is nailed' and any talk of snow in X place is jumping far ahead of the gun at the moment. From a coldies perspective we need to look at the ECM coming back on board to it's theme last evening 12z. I think one thing we can safely say is - it's going be generally colder countrywide for a period next week. 

 

How cold? Chance of snow? How long will it last? - all questions to be answered in the coming 72 hours or so.

 

Yep, some people are getting far too ahead of themselves with regards to what follows the brief N'ly incursion next week. Nothing is 'nailed on' yet and I think it's best to hang fire for the time being. It's entirely plausible that we have a 2/3 day cold shot followed by another W'ly burst or even worse a brief holding ridge to the east (with not particularly cold E'lys) followed by a regrouping PV around Greenland/Canada and a re-energised jet.

 

This evening's output will be interesting....let's hope we can pull the ECM back towards a more wintry outlook past day 6/7.

[chionomaniac]

SK - wrt the 30hPA chart that is what I have been waiting to see and that's like the tropospheric led split that we saw in the other winters - Once we see that in the reliable we know that we are onto something.

[tight isobar]

Yes would agree to a large point, that tonight's ECM is critical.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well looking at the models as they stand it seems as though just as the GFS decides to play nice, the ECM and UKMO back off somewhat. I don't particularly like the look of the ECM and the UKMO looks as though it would go the same way at 144 hours.

 

 

Seems to be due to that little low S of Greenland. Hoping for better tonight TBH.

What I've been saying Aaron, the ECM is not great this morning and it will be interesting tomsee where we go next day or two

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Yes would agree to a large point, that tonight's ECM is critical.

Ecm 12z ensemble mean is important, the op run isn't...as we saw this morning, the ens mean was better than the op. I think too much is made of individual runs, the collective average from all the data has a much more realistic chance of verifying. Edited November 14, 2013 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ecm 12z ensemble mean is important, the op run isn't...as we saw this morning, the ens mean was better than the op. I think too much is made of individual runs, the collective average from all the data has a much more realistic chance of verifying.

 

Not in this instance (where extra resolution is important in resolving fine nuances around the Greenland locale). Saying an op run isn't important is both naïve and downright foolish IMO.

 

We'll just have to wait and see what it dishes out later.

Edited November 14, 2013 by CreweCold

[forecaster]

Yes would agree to a large point, that tonight's ECM is critical.

 

Perhaps most important will be tomorrow's EC32, to see if it continues the suggestion of positive heights to our north or northwest for the latter part of the month and early December. 

[Snowman.]

CFS doesn't have one reload it has TWO!

 

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

528 DAM line breaches NW Scotland late sunday night on 12z GFS.

And so another winter of model watching begins!

CFS doesn't have one reload it has TWO!

 

 

CFS pretty adament on Height rises to the North west...

[Team Jo]

Region-by-region forecasting/hopecasting/discussion is probably better posted in here Folks - Just to avoid Clutter.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

 

 

Ta Muchly!

[fluid dynamic]

CFS doesn't have one reload it has TWO!

 

 

that looks very 2010 ish to me

 

crumbs

Edited November 14, 2013 by fluid dynamic

[Snowman.]

CFS 9 monther is epic.

 

January brings in a Steve M boom. Beauty of FI.

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[nick sussex]

Good continuity between the GFS 06hrs and this 12hrs run at T102hrs, all important shortwave phasing coming up, its crucial the upstream pattern remains amplified and we see energy undercut the high later on.

[shaky]

Just taken a look the ao and nao index again and it now looks like they gona seriously tank well into the negative territory for the second half of november at least!!

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs so far looks like the block is slightly futher south although still early into the run and cold still filtering down.

[tynevalleysnow]

CFS doesn't have one reload it has TWO!

 

 

Looks very nice but how likely?

[Met4Cast]

gfs so far looks like the block is slightly futher south although still early into the run and cold still filtering down.

 

Looks further North & slightly more amplified to me..

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111412/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

 

12z rolling to 120 & is slower & amplified again ( by another few hundred miles )- heading towards the NAVGEM solution this morning -

almost a fully cut off Icelandic-High-

 

thickness at 500 MB

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111412/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

 

524 DAM for the south & 516 For Scotland-

 

S

Edited November 14, 2013 by Steve Murr

[MR EXTREMES]

well the nao and ao will only tank well if a sustained block is in place were not home and dry just yet.

and gfs t120 aint all that bad less coming out of the states into the north alantic.

[Summer Sun]

Quite a bit of snow around on Tuesday in the north and north west

 

 

The position of the high is crucial for how long the cold lasts, if it moves closer and builds over the UK that will cut off the supply of cold air and allow frost and foggy night's to develop

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[swfc]

Looks further North & slightly more amplified to me..

Id agree and looks like its not droping the trend like ecm atm!!!

[Zenarcher]

The difference 24 hours can make.

 

Yesterday for the 19th

 

 

And today

 

 

More energy going into Greenland.

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs 12z t132 yummy very nice indeed

[Met4Cast]

Low heights plunging into Europe, Atlantic high almost vertical. Cracking FI on the way

 

[Weathizard]

I like the look of this run out to 144, as has been said much more amplified and the ridge is being squeezed up towards Greenland by the shortwave. Lack of cold uppers still concerning me though.