Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[terrier]

Wonderful lets hope we see plenty of this in coming runs

[Summer Sun]

The high moves closer to the UK bringing in a north easterly wind

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

The eagle has landed ! cut off Icelandic high, in those hideous mild winters before the recent change you were more likely to see ET in your back garden than one of these!

[Continental Climate]

A stellar run coming up me thinks at 144 gfs is excellent http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png!!

Hope UKMO follows suit and the high continues to drift north

[AWD]

Hints of something wintry amongst a disturbance again visible on the 12z GFS Op across the South West;

It's been hinted at on a few GFS Op runs now!

[Cheshire Freeze]

At 144 the high is showing us some love and funnelling NE winds at us. Lovely chart.....just wish I could trust this model

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Of interest is the warm air moving into Greenland at 144hrs.

Thats NEVER a bad sign...

[Met4Cast]

Some lovely WAA being pumped up into Greenland 

 

 

I'm sure Steve will be all over that!

[Continental Climate]

850's are a bit concerning though http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png!! At this time of the year will -6's be enough or will we just get cold rain or slush? anyways too far out at this stage to worry about that lets just get the pattern right first

[Paul]

Wondering about the chances of snow, and how to forecast it? Jo has a blog all about it (regularly updated with info on the snow risk next week) here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5521;sess=

[MR EXTREMES]

might need to wait beyond fi to see the really deep cold sweep into Europe gibby was right if this was jan feb well omg ice age lol.

but on a serious note the really deep cold is being held at bay which is the most disappointing thing although this is an evolution solution and I agree can the gfs be trusted.

I cant post charts cant even upload them from my computer sorry people if this frustrates anyone.

[Weathizard]

850's are a bit concerning though http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png!! At this time of the year will -6's be enough or will we just get cold rain or slush? anyways too far out at this stage to worry about that lets just get the pattern right first

Yup! That's worrying me a lot, too far out to worry about really I know that just looking at N-Hemisphere charts the Synoptics are a joy to behold, so if they are wasted because of poor T850 temps that will be a real kick in the teeth Edited November 14, 2013 by Weathizard

[MR EXTREMES]

and even futher out on the gfs it all seems to fizzle away I expect that's something to do with the fact it really is not winter yet.

it gets rather messy beyond t168 new York gonna be very cold though so my question is any of this blocking really going to aid us ?

 

apart from the cold few days ?

 

omg it looks like a fail into fi vortex fight back maybe that's why.

Edited November 14, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[terrier]

Stunning just stunning here is to our first taste of winter frost snow freezing temps happy days. Mabye james madden might be correct yet. Sorry mods couldnt resist.  

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111412/gfsnh-0-180.png?12

 

wedge of high in a pretty decent place- looks good for a reload!

 

S

[summer blizzard]

850's are a bit concerning though http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png!! At this time of the year will -6's be enough or will we just get cold rain or slush? anyways too far out at this stage to worry about that lets just get the pattern right first

 

I suspect so, thickness values are low and we do have an extremely cold airmass to deliver the dewpoints..

 

[tight isobar]

Gfs looking quality now...

[Mucka]

and even futher out on the gfs it all seems to fizzle away I expect that's something to do with the fact it really is not winter yet.

it gets rather messy beyond t168

It is still improving run to run. People were saying how good the 06z was but this has much colder uppers still at 168 around -5 for most

[shaky]

850's are a bit concerning though http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png!! At this time of the year will -6's be enough or will we just get cold rain or slush? anyways too far out at this stage to worry about that lets just get the pattern right first

should be enough especially if the flow is slack!!got snow in october before with higher uppers.

[Mucka]

Here comes the reload

 

[tight isobar]

Ha,ha,..lovely....perhaps a complete near perfect run start to end..

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111412/gfsnh-0-252.png?12

 

reload arriving

S

[Iceaxecrampon]

As predicted - 20th was always looking promising.

 

 

Ian

[swfc]

Imo id ignore this run beyond 170 hrs.Looks wrong to me synoptics wise.See where ecm and ukmo go but maybe after the initial cold shot some mlb would be my call but would love to be miles out with that call!!!

[Mucka]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111412/gfsnh-0-252.png?12

 

reload arriving

S

 

Greeny high in deep FI and frigid no doubt but could be very cold before that if troughing is a little further West when(if) the Atlantic block rebuilds

Edited November 14, 2013 by Mucka